ISER says impact of interest rate rises limited

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

No it isn't. It's just like the other Shelter press releases, an extremely twisted representation of the data designed to mislead you.

And it worked.

How do we know the data is twisted?

We don't even know the data sample, or the size of the data sample in the ISER report.

julieq

OK, the BBC data isn't a survey. It uses averaged data interpreted using detailed data on income and expenditure provided by the ISER British Household panel, which is a fixed group of people tracked "longitudinally", i.e. throughout their lives. There's a dataset called "the Derived Current and Annual Net Household Income Variables dataset" which I'd guess is the one being used.

The baseline data will be calibrated using current arrears rates, and the points of pain will be extrapolated from the effects of mortgage rises. The original panel is not questioned on whether they're "struggling" with mortgages, it's a comparison of their income relative to costs, i.e. the question is approached indirectly.

So methodologically this is a sound process. There's a considerable sample to derive the income information, and external data on average mortgage is verifiable. The only assumption made is that 80% of mortgages will be affected by an interest rate rise, which is probably verifiable but the BBC state it as an assumption.

I don't see any problem with the approach to be honest, and I've looked as closely as I've looked at the Shelter data.

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How do we know the data is twisted?

We don't even know the data sample, or the size of the data sample in the ISER report.

Yes we do. I just explained the methodology and the details of the sample and even the questions they're asked are available online.

Sample size isn't relevant if the questioning methodology is flawed. Define "struggling" and you start having a case. If you don't know how "struggling" is defined, and I don't, anyone asking the question of you and I is asking different questions because we can define it differently.

Sorry, but you're nailing your colours to the wrong research, and I've demonstrated just on the numbers that it is internally inconsistent. That it's being used to support a misleading headline should be enough to raise serious alarm bells. But you have one of the worst cases of confirmation bias I've ever seen.

The_Fox_3

But you have one of the worst cases of confirmation bias I've ever seen.[/QUOTE]


And yet again our Julie diagnosis yet another personality disorder amongst the property bears, how does she do it, i have lost count of the new pychological ailments she has come out with. My personal one is entitlement "issues":), i booked in with my pschologist today, "wibble".:doh:

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How do we know the data is twisted?

We don't even know the data sample, or the size of the data sample in the ISER report.

Good god man. The title of the thread is "ISER says the impact of interest rate rises limited". Three pages in and all you've managed to do is defend a different survey.

Would it kill you to say that it seems to be good news OR disagree with it's findings?

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Good god man. The title of the thread is "ISER says the impact of interest rate rises limited". Three pages in and all you've managed to do is defend a different survey.

Would it kill you to say that it seems to be good news OR disagree with it's findings?

I'm talking about that survey. God damn, will you stop picking.

I'm just saying this new survey is extremely different to any others we have seen

How do we know the data is twisted?

We don't even know the data sample, or the size of the data sample in the ISER report.

The ISER report is the one talked about. It's tje new survey out today.

Blimey, you are like a dog on heat.

julieq

Graham it's not a survey and the ISER didn't produce it. It's an interpretation of average data using an ISER dataset. And the methodology is sound and verifiable.

Unlike the Shelter data, which is misleading and internally inconsistent. Why can you not see that?

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The ISER report is the one talked about. It's the new survey out today.

What do you think about it? Nice to see some positive news isn't it?

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

What do you think about it? Nice to see some positive news isn't it?

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=42356500&postcount=3

Your attempts to trip me up continuously is becoming quite obsessional.

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=42356500&postcount=3

Your attempts to trip me up continuously is becoming quite obsessional.

Well your questions from that post have been answered.

You have detailed information on the methodology of the BBC tables.

And we've pointed out that the Shelter data is internally inconsistent and draws obviously flawed conclusions.

So in view of that, you can now explain what you think of the BBC reports.

Not that you will, because from the moment it didn't agree with what you thought should happen, you rejected the report. You haven't explained why, all you do is say the two conclusions (Shelter and the BBC) are possibly equivalent in quality and you plump for the one that supports you. They're not equivalent. Sorry.

Which process of self deception is known as confirmation bias.