ISER says impact of interest rate rises limited

chucky

michaels wrote: »

OK, to put it another way, way is the BoE so terrified about raising rates if it won't kill the economy through the housing market?

i've never heard or seen anything from the BOE saying that they won't raise the base rate because it is terrified it will affect the housing market.

i only see those kind of comments on this forum or HPC.co.uk from the usual suspects who can't back up their comments apart from 2nd hand stories they've heard down the pub or at work.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

OK, to put it another way, way is the BoE so terrified about raising rates if it won't kill the economy through the housing market?

If a rise in interest rates impacts on property prices in a downward manner. Then the banks will be required to increase their capital reserves to compensate. Thereby reducing the availability of credit even further.

The BOE is focussing on financial stability as well as inflation.

Generali

ILW wrote: »

So lets bang rates up to 6%, would help my savings.

Why would it help your savings? Do you have a savings account connected to the base rate? I think there were a couple a while back.

Graham_Devon

RenovationMan wrote: »

Or ignore all of them as basically flawed. A survey of 2000 represents the position/viewpoint of 2000 people, not the entire country. I dont just have an issue with shelter, I basically distrust all surveys.

Me too.

None of the forecasts have really been right. Whether it's over stating something, or under stating something.

ILW

Generali wrote: »

Why would it help your savings? Do you have a savings account connected to the base rate? I think there were a couple a while back.

Yep. 2.25 over base.

Getting 8.25% would be vey nice.

Ain't gonna happen though.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

http://media.shelter.org.uk/Press-releases/SHELTER-WARNS-OF-RISE-IN-HOMELESSNESS-AS-MILLIONS-STRUGGLE-TO-PAY-FOR-THEIR-HOMES-36d.aspx

I guess you have to choose the survey your personal thoughts most align to and go with that. None of them are right, or wrong.

You have to choose the survey that aligns with your personal thoughts?

Wouldn't it be more measured to consider all data and align your personal thoughts accordingly?

The Shelter survey does come to some worrying conclusions but it's a stretch to think that 60 people (3% of 2000) struggling with their mortgage is representative. I think ISER data is a real piece of good news.

Thrugelmir

RenovationMan wrote: »

As I know from personal experience, the size of the mortgage is not the issue, its the amount of disposible income (i.e. what is left from income minus outgoings) and savings that makes the difference between being comfortable and struggling, from keeping a house and losing it during times of financial strife.

We had 16 years of unbroken growth in the economy. Whereas recessions or downturns have statistically struck every 8 years. So there's a large % of the population who've never experienced the grim times financially. There's no precedent for the position we are all in today. So the future is very uncertain.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

You have to choose the survey that aligns with your personal thoughts?

Wouldn't it be more measured to consider all data and align your personal thoughts accordingly?

The Shelter survey does come to some worrying conclusions but it's a stretch to think that 60 people (3% of 2000) struggling with their mortgage is representative. I think ISER data is a real piece of good news.

Yes, you choose the measure that aligns with your thoughts. It's what you just did.

No "forecast" is right or wrong. It's impossible for it to be right or wrong, as it's the future.

Therefore, everyone will have a natural bias to choose to align to one forecaster, based on their own interpretations of the economy / future.

We all do this on here, every single day.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yes, you choose the measure that aligns with your thoughts. It's what you just did.

No "forecast" is right or wrong. It's impossible for it to be right or wrong, as it's the future.

Therefore, everyone will have a natural bias to choose to align to one forecaster, based on their own interpretations of the economy / future.

We all do this on here, every single day.

I looked at the ISER data with a little surprise at how positive the figures were - I would have thought they'd be less positive. Then I saw your comments about shelter and looked into them in more depth. However, I dismissed them due to the small sample size involved

What I didn't do was wake up this morning with the view that the Earth is flat and determined to accept only data that supported this view.

What I actually did was considered both sets of data and formed a view.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

I looked at the ISER data with a little surprise at how positive the figures were - I would have thought they'd be less positive.

I'm surprised that you interpret them as being "positive". Over time the issues raised will need to be addressed. As its no illusion.