Haliwide and LR out this week

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

DervProf wrote: »

No, I don't.

Nor do I.

And the upcoming spring/summer bounce will have the suitable restorative effect.

Just look at the house buying board, activity, offers, completions, viewings, all seem to be up quite a bit in recent weeks. Anecdotal, I know, but there's nowhere near the misery over there that there was a couple of years ago.

The_Fox_3

PROUD_HOMEOWNER_CLASS wrote: »

You're fckin deluded mate. Still drinking the hpc.co.uk koolaid I see. Shame they lied and deceived you since 2001, eh?

Who are you actually ranting at?

The_Fox_3

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

What do you see as a likely trigger Graham?

--Large base rate rises of greater than 3%?

--Unemployment rising by dramatically more than is forecast?

--Repossessions doubling from todays levels?

Because it would take some pretty big changes to trigger another full blown crash, and I'm not seeing any of those types of events as being probable.



Sure, why not? And I'd actually say more like 18 months of up and down.

Minor fluctuations are the trend at the moment. Some months up, others down, winter having more falls and summer having more rises in general.

Trigger?

In one word..... DEBT

Personal and government, it is sitting there like a timebomb

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not seeing any likely triggers for a big crash at all.
QUOTE]

McTavish vision



Corrected vision

B_Blank

No change. I will be shocked if we see changes over 0.5% month to month. I dont expect the falls to take hold till after the fiscal and monetary stimulus that is propping up the housing market beging to be slowly removed.

Cuts are coming into effect from april 1st, and these will have a lagging effect. The effect of rate rises will be more instant. I would expect the fiscal tightening ("the cuts") to start to bite in june/july, which conveniently should be about the same time that rates start to rise.

The effect will be considerable downward pressure towards the end of the year.

I am SHOCKED that house prices are declining over the last 6 months given the unprecedneted low interest rates, and the massive amount of money the government is still spending. This points to carnage in the housing market when these supports are removed.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

B_Blank wrote: »

I am SHOCKED that house prices are declining over the last 6 months .

Why?

They decline over winter every year.....:money:

It would frankly be more SHOCKING if they'd risen, given the austerity budget, tax rises, public sector cuts, rising unemployment, continuing mortgage rationing, etc....

In fact, after removing 70% of mortgage funding from the market, they really ought to have plummeted far more than the paltry 20% they did, before recovering half that amount rapidly.

Just goes to show how severe the UK housing shortage really is. After all, in countries with a surplus, such as the USA and Ireland, prices have plummeted 45% and still falling despite having all the same props such as ZIRP, mortgage support, liquidity programmes, etc and more to support their markets.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nationwide has a southern bias, so should start drifting upwards over summer from March/April onwards.

Halifax with it's northern bias may not do so well this spring given the public sector cuts, but it's also a fair bit noisier at the moment so hard to say.

LR lags by about three months, so anything now will reflect Dec sales.

In general terms, we'll see a relatively minor spring bounce this year, in keeping with the general trend of stagnating house prices. It'll wipe out the very minor falls we had over winter, but won't get us anywhere particularly exciting. Then another winter of very minor falls, but a somewhat stronger spring bounce for 2012.

2011 will be in a range of -3% to +2% IMO, so stagnation with a slight downwards bias. 2012 will be similar, stagnation but with a slight upwards bias, more like a range of -1% to +4%.

Not seeing any likely triggers for a big crash at all.

Base rates will start to drift up slowly at some point, but probably won't cross 3% in the next 5 years. Unemployment is drifting up slowly, but will likely peak in the next 12-18 months at no more than 150K or so higher than today. Compared to 08/09 when it was increasing at 100K a month, it's tragic but it's not going to trigger a crash in house prices now. Repossessions and arrears aren't going to get much worse, and they're massively better than forecast and better than the last crash by a long shot. Housebuilding keeps falling, population keeps growing, and rents keep increasing. All providing crucial support to prices.

Like I said, we'll see minor fluctuations, but the chances of another crash are vanishingly small.

According to LSL Acadametrics, the 'spring bounce' actually starts in January. January is the peak for housing market activity and there's basically a straight line slowing down to December. The 'Spring Bounce' would be more accurately termed 'The Hogmanay Bounce'.

Almost anything could have happened to LR given the mess that was December's weather in the UK and I would largely discount any very big swings.

I think there will be an increasing discrepancy between Nationwide and Halifax as a big North-South (or rather rich-poor) divide is about to open up I think. I could always see why people getting richer, and being able to borrow more*, would bid up house prices in nice bits of London and the countryside.

I couldn't really see why the same thing would happen in towns that are basically dying on their feet with not much of a real economy beyond Government spending.

I think the cuts are going to have a much bigger impact on the ex-industrial towns in the north (and the smaller number that exist in the south e.g. in much of North and SE Kent) than many imagine. It's not so much the scale of the cuts that will hurt as the reliance of the economy in many place on the Government to prop it up.

In summary, crash in The North (including bits of the south that are economically in The North), no crash in affluent and middling areas. No crash reflected in indices as a result but quite possibly a crash 'round my way'**.

The poorer bits of London will be interesting to watch. On one hand they do quite badly out of Government spending compared to poor places in other parts of the UK and tend to vote Labour so the Tories will not be inclined to prop them up. On the other, as people are priced out of Clapham they move to Balham, then Tooting and the Colliers Wood. There is normally this ripple effect.

As ever, we'll see!





*Whether the 'being able to borrow more' is because lower interest rates mean a larger debt can be serviced more easily or because banks are immorally forcing up house prices by cruelly allowing 5x income mortgages and liar loans doesn't ultimately matter.

**Or rather round someone else's way. I don't have a way round for the purposes of UK house prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

I think there will be an increasing discrepancy between Nationwide and Halifax as a big North-South (or rather rich-poor) divide is about to open up I think. .

I agree.

I don't for a moment discount the fact that some of the areas up north are going to suffer economically, and this will surely push through into their local house prices eventually.

But any effect will be very localised, and overall the indices will be more or less stagnant for the next couple of years.

Although as you point out, that stagnation will mask some very different local trends. London, the South East, and the more affluent parts elsewhere will see HPI return. Areas of heavy public sector reliance in the North of England will see prices fall as unemployment increases.

B_Blank

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Why?

They decline over winter every year.....:money:

It would frankly be more SHOCKING if they'd risen, given the austerity budget, tax rises, public sector cuts, rising unemployment, continuing mortgage rationing, etc....

In fact, after removing 70% of mortgage funding from the market, they really ought to have plummeted far more than the paltry 20% they did, before recovering half that amount rapidly.

Just goes to show how severe the UK housing shortage really is. After all, in countries with a surplus, such as the USA and Ireland, prices have plummeted 45% and still falling despite having all the same props such as ZIRP, mortgage support, liquidity programmes, etc and more to support their markets.

You cant believe this surely.

Prices are falling when we are running a 10% deficit (which is about to get cut over 4 years from april 1st).

Prices are falling with record low IR which cant go any lower

Prices are falling with QE - which will be impossible to repeat with persistantly high inflation.

And you still make some arguements about supply of housing and think this trumps everything?

Fact: Housing is falling even with these massive props on the housing market.
FACT: WHen these props are removed housing MUST fall more, there is simply no alternative.

Honestly, you are just a troll so I dont know why I bother areguing with you.

I recently read a mailbag where they asked about 50 of the leading economists what they thought would happen to house prices over the next three years. EVERY SINGLE ONE said we would see considerable falls.

But I guess leading economists are nothing on you though? Nobody has thought to see what Hamish has seen.

You really are crazy, it is pointless arguing with someone who is simply a troll

AndyGuil

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Why?

They decline over winter every year.....:money:

It would frankly be more SHOCKING if they'd risen, given the austerity budget, tax rises, public sector cuts, rising unemployment, continuing mortgage rationing, etc....

In fact, after removing 70% of mortgage funding from the market, they really ought to have plummeted far more than the paltry 20% they did, before recovering half that amount rapidly.

Just goes to show how severe the UK housing shortage really is. After all, in countries with a surplus, such as the USA and Ireland, prices have plummeted 45% and still falling despite having all the same props such as ZIRP, mortgage support, liquidity programmes, etc and more to support their markets.

We do have low interest rates keeping the prices up. The rates are going to move up soon. That will put a downward pressure on prices as it has in other countries.