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Haliwide and LR out this week
The_Fox_3
Posts: 299 Forumite
The Haliwide and LR should be giving their data on monthly house prices next week, i just don't know!.
Between now and summer i expect the big falls to start gaining momentum, just got a feeling that March is just a little too early yet.
Any predictions:)
Between now and summer i expect the big falls to start gaining momentum, just got a feeling that March is just a little too early yet.
Any predictions:)
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Comments
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PROUD_HOMEOWNER_CLASS wrote: »Significant sales movements on the street level so both indicators will be positive with above 0.5+ figures.
There's about as much chance of that as you still being here when the figures are released.:rotfl:0 -
The Haliwide and LR should be giving their data on monthly house prices next week, i just don't know!.
Between now and summer i expect the big falls to start gaining momentum, just got a feeling that March is just a little too early yet.
Any predictions:)
Nationwide has a southern bias, so should start drifting upwards over summer from March/April onwards.
Halifax with it's northern bias may not do so well this spring given the public sector cuts, but it's also a fair bit noisier at the moment so hard to say.
LR lags by about three months, so anything now will reflect Dec sales.
In general terms, we'll see a relatively minor spring bounce this year, in keeping with the general trend of stagnating house prices. It'll wipe out the very minor falls we had over winter, but won't get us anywhere particularly exciting. Then another winter of very minor falls, but a somewhat stronger spring bounce for 2012.
2011 will be in a range of -3% to +2% IMO, so stagnation with a slight downwards bias. 2012 will be similar, stagnation but with a slight upwards bias, more like a range of -1% to +4%.
Not seeing any likely triggers for a big crash at all.
Base rates will start to drift up slowly at some point, but probably won't cross 3% in the next 5 years. Unemployment is drifting up slowly, but will likely peak in the next 12-18 months at no more than 150K or so higher than today. Compared to 08/09 when it was increasing at 100K a month, it's tragic but it's not going to trigger a crash in house prices now. Repossessions and arrears aren't going to get much worse, and they're massively better than forecast and better than the last crash by a long shot. Housebuilding keeps falling, population keeps growing, and rents keep increasing. All providing crucial support to prices.
Like I said, we'll see minor fluctuations, but the chances of another crash are vanishingly small.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Kudo's to Hamish. Don't get detailed predicitions like that too often.
Even if I don't particularly agree with the reasoning....I mean, no triggers?! Having a laugh mate!
6 months of up and down on the figures yet....at least.0 -
The only one i will risk is the LR, and say that it SHOULD be negative. Give it a few months(summer latest) and i will be expecting -1% plus per month.0
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The only one i will risk is the LR, and say that it SHOULD be negative. Give it a few months(summer latest) and i will be expecting -1% plus per month.
LR will be reflecting Dec now, so it may well be slightly negative.
But by mid summer, it'll be reflecting now, March..... And as the average of the other indices is not strongly negative just now, then nor will LR be by summer.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Kudo's to Hamish. Don't get detailed predicitions like that too often.
Even if I don't particularly agree with the reasoning....I mean, no triggers?! Having a laugh mate!
What do you see as a likely trigger Graham?
--Large base rate rises of greater than 3%?
--Unemployment rising by dramatically more than is forecast?
--Repossessions doubling from todays levels?
Because it would take some pretty big changes to trigger another full blown crash, and I'm not seeing any of those types of events as being probable.6 months of up and down on the figures yet....at least.
Sure, why not? And I'd actually say more like 18 months of up and down.
Minor fluctuations are the trend at the moment. Some months up, others down, winter having more falls and summer having more rises in general.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What do you see as a likely trigger Graham?
--Large base rate rises of greater than 3%?
--Unemployment rising by dramatically more than is forecast?
--Repossessions doubling from todays levels?
Because it would take some pretty big changes to trigger another full blown crash, and I'm not seeing any of those types of events as being probable.
How about a change in sentiment ? An acceptance that prices are slowly falling, and sellers/EAs deciding to accept a few £k less to get a sale ? After all, when prices are booming, the general sentiment is that prices will continue to rise - mix in a bit of easy lending, and away you go ! Lending conditions have now been quite tight for a while, unemployment fighures are looking like they'll be rising for a while, so those who really want/need to sell might just decide to sell for a bit less, but expect to buy for a bit less.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
RenovationMan wrote: »Do you think that the UK population have had a change in sentiment? From media programs, news reports and what I see around me, I still think that there is the same mania for property out there.
Definately, they do.
Consumer confidence surveys say it all.
Even the supermarkets are starting to suffer again.0 -
RenovationMan wrote: »Do you think that the UK population have had a change in sentiment?
No, I don't.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
RenovationMan wrote: »People need to really feel the pain in relation to their mortgage debts in order to end the house love affair. Low rates and government policies to help keep people in their homes will not help achieve this. In the meantime we will have TV awash with DIY, houses under the hammer, phil and kirsty helping to feed the addiction.
In the past, when I have suggested that property !!!!!! has an influence on property prices, I have been told that these programmes/articles have little or no effect on property prices.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0
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