Lib Dems in crisis

Orpheo

A._Badger wrote: »

A 'full-on Tory govt'? I hope for your sake you never meet any of the the vast number of Conservative supporters who feel betrayed by what they regard as the Cameroons' Leftism

Uh? Have these betrayed Tories got the T-virus or something? Should I be scared?

JSR

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Which is it? Either Darling's cuts were kicking in next week, or they don't have a plan to cut. It can't be both.

It can be, and is, both. Their last budget and manifesto committed them to large but unspecified cuts and tax rises. They are still unwilling to specify those cuts but that doesn't mean, that, had they won the election, they wouldn't be cutting just the same.

As someone else alluded to Labour are in pure opposition mode now. Nothing they say has to make sense, be pragmatic or be consistent with their pre-election plans and, indeed, most of it isn't. Since the election they have opposed the VAT increase but moved their tax target from 33% to 50%. So where is all this money coming from? They haven't said and nor will they. They just have to maintain the political fairy tale that nothing bad would happen under Labour and collect the votes.

Before the election is the time for the electorate to demand detailed plans, not after. They will never be volunteered because no matter what the details are, large cuts and tax rises are unpalatable and will always be seen as unfair. Even if they are Labour's. When Nick Clegg spoke at conference in 2009 about the reality of the forthcoming cuts he was shut down. The electorate didn't want to hear it. Is it any wonder politicians don't answer questions? They're punished for honesty and rewarded for pandering.

To stay on topic. The Lib Dems can no longer depend on protest votes from disillusioned Labour voters but that is far from being one step from oblivion. They did very well in January in OE&S, increasing their share of the vote over the general election. Barnsley is as safe a Labour seat as they come and no party resources from either the Lib Dems or Tories were committed to it.

They will probably take a significant hit in vote share at the next election. How that translates into MPs depends on where those votes are lost and the voting system at the time. The majority of Lib Dem votes under FPTP count for nothing and could be lost with no change to MP count. In fact, as was seen in 2010 an increased vote share lead to a reduction in the number of MPs. I think they will do fine but they need to get better at selling the contribution they are making to the coalition.

StevieJ

JSR wrote: »

It can be, and is, both. Their last budget and manifesto committed them to large but unspecified cuts and tax rises. They are still unwilling to specify those cuts but that doesn't mean, that, had they won the election, they wouldn't be cutting just the same.
.

Wait a minute I thought it was stated before the election that only the Tories could make the cuts required to satisfy the credit agencies. Is this more Tory supporter duplicity?

JSR

StevieJ wrote: »

Wait a minute I thought it was stated before the election that only the Tories could make the cuts required to satisfy the credit agencies. Is this more Tory supporter duplicity?

I meant Labour would be cutting according to their stated deficit reduction strategy. What the markets would have made of plans to sort out the deficit over two parliaments rather than one is anybody's guess. I suspect they couldn't care less as long as it didn't start to look like we were going to miss interest payments.

RJP33

JSR wrote: »

As someone else alluded to Labour are in pure opposition mode now. Nothing they say has to make sense, be pragmatic or be consistent with their pre-election plans and, indeed, most of it isn't. Since the election they have opposed the VAT increase but moved their tax target from 33% to 50%. So where is all this money coming from? They haven't said and nor will they. They just have to maintain the political fairy tale that nothing bad would happen under Labour and collect the votes.

This hits the nail on the head, because of the ridiculous budget last year where they were clearly not going to announce any cuts for fear of electoral disaster they don't need to specify anything. It's pure opposition without anything practical.

Problem for them is the crisis is still very, very fresh in the memory, both Eds were in the government responsible for this so there's no clean break, so in the short term they’ll likely find it very difficult to win any economic battles.
I reckon the majority of people in the country actually support a lot of the cuts made (the housing benefit one is very popular for example, as the new universal credit will be), but labour have to try and stir up the faux outrage.