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Debate House Prices
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Lloyds: Scottish House Prices up 4.7% YoY
Comments
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And geneer loses interest again.......
Who could have seen that one coming.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Wow. A patented spamish wall of text. He appears to be a bit grumpy, if he's going for the attrition method...
Not a disclaimer you usually make when gloating over the stats, it has to be said.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The abstract value of a house is meaningless.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The fact remains that most houses in Scotland which are selling, are selling at prices not that far from 2006/7 prices depending on local market.
Actually, the fact is many houses in Scotland simply aren't selling.
And, as has been clearly demonstrated, even local markets (like say Aberdeen and Edinburgh) can be influenced by the skewing effect of the same.
Which of course means one might want to be careful about making too much of the headline figures.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »If you as a buyer want to buy a house at 2000 prices, you'll be disappointed.
2000 prices now. My how those slippery goalposts move.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The scottish market is clearly seasonal. You'd have to be an idiot to deny that, and despite your endless trolling geneer, you're not an idiot.
And no one claimed it wasn't. But a certain trolling someone keeps stating that changes of tens of thousands of points are "normal seasonal variations".
Yet in the case of Edinburgh, even the ESPC said the figures were largely due to the skew coming into and leaving the figures...at the time.
And in the case of Aberdeen, a certain trolling someone has utterly failed to demonstrate where the same occured prior to the market essentially collapsing in 2007.
No doubt because you haven't got a leg to stand on.
You'd have to be an idiot to pretend this isn't the case.
And for scotland:-
The fluctuations in house prices are due partly to low sales levels, with average values easily distorted in a subdued market.
:rotfl:HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »he also states it's only "partly" down to low volumes. The rest of the fluctuation is likely to be seasonal.
Oh. So your defence is based around the definition of what a "part" constitues. Would it be unfair of me to suggest that its very clear what message the analyst is passing on.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »As for blunt averages, (such as RoS) which I completely agree could be skewed.....The average sales price, in any market, is not going to give you a precise reflection of every single house in that market. We all agree that.....
Again, not disclaimers you usually make when gloating over the stats.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Decent houses in decent areas are selling for there or thereabouts peak prices. Now if you want to live in a crap flat in a crap area, I don't disagree you can get a deal.
:rotfl:Not this only chestnut again. I guess everything in "aberdeen city centre" is crap then.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »But the skew from sales mix in a market the size of Edinburgh, Glasgow or Aberdeen is small enough, that a blunt average is still a useful proxy for how that market is doing in general.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Except of course if the ASPC showed that aberdeen overall average was up, yet aberdeen city centre had dropped £10K or so.
And except of course if I could produce regular monthly quotes from the producers of the ESPC which explicity stated, time and again, how significant skews were effecting the average price.
That would rather explain how tens of thousands of pounds dropped out of your much crowed about "new peak" in mere months.
As you were advised at the time.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Your claim that such averages are "meaningless" simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Unless those averages were heavily skewed.
Your claim that they're not, simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Even Estate Agents and Mortgage sellers won't back you on this!
Thats saying something.
individual houses are selling for similar prices, or even more in some areas, now than they did then.
Gosh. Some houses in some areas. Fascinating. :TAnd ultimately, it's the price you can agree with a seller of the house you want to buy that matters to most people.
Not some abstract concept of what house prices might be if volume and forced selling was higher......
Gosh. Doesn't that make the averages rather meaningless then.
Woof. You're all over the place Spamish.
But then, what would we expect when you're forced to aknowledge undeniable truths, whilst at the same time dismissing the obvious repercusions of the same.
I think you should have stuck with your usual ghost act mate.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And geneer loses interest again.......
Who could have seen that one coming.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Wrong again Spamish.
Your powers of dull blunt attrition will not work on me. 0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And geneer loses interest again.......
Who could have seen that one coming.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Stop the press! Look who's ghosted out of the discussion again.
Don't worry Hamish, we know why you would much rather discuss what grant shapps is saying than take a long hard look at your core, repeated assertions.
Let us know when you get to the end of the denial phase, theres a good chap.0 -
In the case of Aberdeen....
The total blunt average is up.
The average of each house type, flats, terraced, semi, detached, is up.
Individual houses and flats, in most areas of Aberdeen, are selling at the same or higher prices than they did in 2007.
How much more clearly do you need to hear it?
If your assertion is that you can still buy for a few grand less than peak in a few areas, then sure, I won't disagree.
If your assertion is that most houses in Aberdeen are selling at a significant discount to peak prices, then I'd disagree, and the evidence supports me.
And if your assertion is that prices have fallen enough to make delaying purchase for the last few years worthwhile, then obviously you're barking mad.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
I have to say seriously, anyone who posts as much as this, with posts as long as this must, must be worried about about their debt levels in relation to their 'asset'.
Nobody who is content with their situation would spend so many hours, trawling through websites to to 'self reinforce' their beliefs on a hidden message board.
The more they post and the longer their posts, the more desperate they appear. Their :beer: or:rotfl: smilies, again reinforce this desperation and selfishness, certainly from an observers point of view.
Why laugh and mock others who were who's only crime is being born later than you Hamish ? Especially if you are in a good place financially as you claim ?
My feeling is you're not, the evidence suggests the paranoia you display means any drop in house prices would ruin you.Have owned outright since Sept 2009, however I'm of the firm belief that high prices are a cancer on society, they have sucked money out of the economy, handing it to banks who've squandered it.0 -
I have to say seriously, anyone who posts as much as this, with posts as long as this must, must be worried about about their debt levels in relation to their 'asset'.
Nobody who is content with their situation would spend so many hours, trawling through websites to to 'self reinforce' their beliefs on a hidden message board.
The more they post and the longer their posts, the more desperate they appear. Their :beer: or:rotfl: smilies, again reinforce this desperation and selfishness, certainly from an observers point of view.
Why laugh and mock others who were who's only crime is being born later than you Hamish ? Especially if you are in a good place financially as you claim ?
My feeling is you're not, the evidence suggests the paranoia you display means any drop in house prices would ruin you.
What wild assumptions would you make about the likes of geneer and smeagold out of interest?This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
I have to say seriously, anyone who posts as much as this, with posts as long as this must, must be worried about about their debt levels in relation to their 'asset'.
Gosh, that's an extraordinary assumption to make.
People that come to a "debate the economy and house prices" board, to debate the topic that the board was set up for debating, must be worried about their debt levels.....
Oh, how I miss the rolleyes smiley.....Nobody who is content with their situation would spend so many hours, trawling through websites
And nobody content with their situation would desperately log on again, and again, and again, with user name after user name after user name when they'd been banned from this website....
Yet that's exactly what you've done.the paranoia you display means any drop in house prices would ruin you.
Putting aside the obvious desperation you're resorting to with such remarks, on a more logical level, seeing as prices already fell and then recovered to new heights in may area, what on earth makes you think repeating the process would "ruin me"???
It clearly didn't ruin me the first time around. It wouldn't if it happened again.
The simple fact is that I like to argue, and I absolutely despise the sort of crashaholics and doom-mongers that populate this board.....
So demolishing their arguments is fun on multiple levels for me.:D“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »In the case of Aberdeen....
The total blunt average is up.
The average of each house type, flats, terraced, semi, detached, is up.
Individual houses and flats, in most areas of Aberdeen, are selling at the same or higher prices than they did in 2007.
How much more clearly do you need to hear it?
If your assertion is that you can still buy for a few grand less than peak in a few areas, then sure, I won't disagree.
If your assertion is that most houses in Aberdeen are selling at a significant discount to peak prices, then I'd disagree, and the evidence supports me.
And if your assertion is that prices have fallen enough to make delaying purchase for the last few years worthwhile, then obviously you're barking mad.
Sorry Spamish. You seem to be rabbiting on about an unrelated issue.
Still waiting for you to point out where the "normal seasonal variations" of tens of thousands of pounds occured before the market failed in 2007.
Thanks in advance. :cool:0 -
What wild assumptions would you make about the likes of geneer and smeagold out of interest?
I do it for the sport Skeppi.
Its fun to troll the trolls.
Its even more fun of you can systematically deconstruct their
arguments in as humorous a way as possible.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Do you mean on the transcendental level of the imagination Spamish.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »So demolishing their arguments is fun on multiple levels for me.:D
The only reason I mention it, is there doesn't appear to be much of the "demolition" going on in a few recent threads.
Or maybe in aberdoom "demolition" is slang for scarpering from inconvenient threads when faced with salient truths. 0
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