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Debate House Prices
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Lloyds: Scottish House Prices up 4.7% YoY
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Well I haven't bought one yet..... Must be some other fat cat.;)
Hamish, I never suggested that you were a fat cat, but you just have.
(Had a little chuckle when I saw the picture Graham posted).30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
And Hamish loses interest again. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Who could have seen that one coming.Lets see what the experts say.
http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Number-of-house-sales-plunges.6720089.jp#5999936
Ouch. My house hasn't fallen in value....because I haven't been able to sell it.
Translated: Normal seasonal variations my @rse!
DID YOU CATCH THAT BIT SPAMISH. EVEN LLOYDS CHIEF ECONOMIST THINKS YOUR TALKING RUBBISH! :rotfl:
Maybe he can get together with the ESPCs analyst and, over a nice bottle of wine, have a quiet chat about how cross-eyed your "new peak" crowing has turned out to be.
I think we're done here...0 -
geneer, the only thing I've lost interest in is your repetitive and hand bitingly dull trolling.....
If you want to debate house prices in a civilised manner, using verifiable sources such as ROS, ASPC, Lloyds or indeed the repeat sales price of individual houses which have sold in 2006/7 that sold again in 2010, I'm happy to.
But if you want to continue your angry ranting and childish insults, then I'm afraid I'll continue to ignore you.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »geneer, the only thing I've lost interest in is your repetitive and hand bitingly dull trolling.....
If you want to debate house prices in a civilised manner, using verifiable sources such as ROS, ASPC, Lloyds or indeed the repeat sales price of individual houses which have sold in 2006/7 that sold again in 2010, I'm happy to.
If you want to continue your angry ranting and childish insults, I'll continue to ignore you.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Nice try spamish. But you seem to be all too willing to engage bearish posters in as hostile and trolling a manner as possible....up to a point.
Then its "toodles chaps i'm just of to make the point you just obliterated elsewhere...hope no one notices". :T
Hey, do you remember this one.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Yes, but why let the facts get in the way of a dramatic thread title....
Tres Ironic non?
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »But if you want to continue your angry ranting and childish insults, then I'm afraid I'll continue to ignore you.:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Nice try spamish.
I think, once again, we're done here.
Any time you want a serious debate geneer, without all the childish insults and angry shouting, let me know.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Any way, in case some one "missed it", I'll make the point again.
What do the experts say about the recent lloyds figures...
http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Number-of-house-sales-plunges.6720089.jp#5999936HOUSE sales in Scotland have plunged over the past three months, as confidence has drained from the market, figures out today show.
Ouch. My house hasn't fallen in value....because I haven't been able to sell it.Scottish residential property sales have halved in the past three years, despite a 7 per cent increase in 2010, according to the latest house price monitor from Lloyds TSB Scotland.Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland, said: "The Scottish housing market has adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of volatile price movement over the last three years.
"The pattern of quarterly falls followed by quarterly increases to give virtually static house prices over the year looks likely to be repeated during 2011."
The fluctuations in house prices are due partly to low sales levels, with average values easily distorted in a subdued market.
Translated: Absolutley not normal seasonal variations & overall blunt averages not particularly meaningful.
It does rather negate your seasonal variations theory.
As well as your "everythings rosey with average prices" commentary. Doesn't it?
And it would be untoward not to reitterate how your Edinburgh "new peak" with "normal seasonal variations" turned out to be, yet again, the skewing effect of a misfiring market.
But then you were told that at the time.
Soooooo, I think we're done here...again.
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Oooooooooh. Who could have seen this coming....HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »I think, once again, we're done here.
Any time you want a serious debate geneer, without all the childish insults and angry shouting, let me know.
I'm sorry, but I could swear my appropriate mirth at the forums most active troll's rather hilariously obvious smokescreen is being taken as rude.
I guess theres nothing rude or childish about ducking inconvenient truths (with our without weak excuses), as you appear to do so again and again and again.
Buy hey, not to worry, I've made the point in a less antagonistic manner, just so I don't offend your new found delicate sensibilities.
The forum awaits a salient response with baited breath....:A0 -
Any minute now.....0
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No?
Couldn't have seen that one coming.
Oh, waitaminute....I think we're done here...
Those pesky bearish predictions.
They just keep being right.
So lets review...
Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland, said: "The Scottish housing market has adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of volatile price movement over the last three years.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Do you have a reading comprehension problem? Seasonal fluctuations but up year on year :beer:
"The pattern of quarterly falls followed by quarterly increases to give virtually static house prices over the year looks likely to be repeated during 2011."
The fluctuations in house prices are due partly to low sales levels, with average values easily distorted in a subdued market.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »With local house prices 6.3% above the previous 2007 peak..... There's nothing to be desperate about up here.
HOUSE sales in Scotland have plunged over the past three months, as confidence has drained from the market, figures out today show.:beer:HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »You on the other hand, are starting to sound very bitter and despondent.
HAMISH_MCTAVISH: geneer, the only thing I've lost interest in is your repetitive and hand bitingly dull trolling.....
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »But if you want to continue your angry ranting and childish insults, then I'm afraid I'll continue to ignore you.
HAMISH_MCTAVISH:Unless geneer lives in mummy's spare bedroom.
:T:T:T:T:TBravo. A spectacular performance. Just...wow.0 -
Ouch. My house hasn't fallen in value....because I haven't been able to sell it.
The abstract value of a house is meaningless.
The actual value of a house is a price acceptable to both the seller and buyer.
The fact remains that most houses in Scotland which are selling, are selling at prices not that far from 2006/7 prices depending on local market. In a few areas, they're down further. In a few they're selling for more.
If you as a buyer want to buy a house at 2000 prices, you'll be disappointed. So claiming an abstract notion of lower value because of reduced volumes is utterly without merit. If you can't buy at that price, then it doesn't exist.Translated: Absolutley not normal seasonal variations & overall blunt averages not particularly meaningful.
No geneer, that's your translation.... But that's not what was said.
Let's look at what he actually states in the comment.
"The Scottish housing market has adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of volatile price movement over the last three years.
Well, we can all agree with that. Some areas doing better on volume, some worse, but as an average it's about right.
"The pattern of quarterly falls followed by quarterly increases to give virtually static house prices over the year looks likely to be repeated during 2011."
Which pattern? 2010 was very different to 2009 in price terms, but we'll assume he's talking about 2010....
The fluctuations in house prices are due partly to low sales levels, with average values easily distorted in a subdued market.
What he's saying here is that low volumes can increase fluctuations through distortion in sales mix from one month to the next. We can all agree with that.
However he also states it's only "partly" down to low volumes. The rest of the fluctuation is likely to be seasonal.It does rather negate your seasonal variations theory.
As well as your "everythings rosey with average prices" commentary. Doesn't it?
Not at all.
The scottish market is clearly seasonal. You'd have to be an idiot to deny that, and despite your endless trolling geneer, you're not an idiot.
As for blunt averages, (such as RoS) which I completely agree could be skewed, the thing I keep pointing out to you is that we can easily enough check beyond that.
RoS provide detail in the quarterly stats of flats, terraced, semi and detached by market.
Those also show prices recovering to peak or thereabouts in most markets (not all, I agree) although I do agree starter flats in areas like Gorgie or Torry are still down from peak. But that is a small minority of the market.
Decent houses in decent areas are selling for there or thereabouts peak prices. Now if you want to live in a crap flat in a crap area, I don't disagree you can get a deal. But who want's to do that?
And the people who do want to live in those areas, by and large can't get a mortgage at the moment, so it's doing them no good.
The average sales price, in any market, is not going to give you a precise reflection of every single house in that market. We all agree that.
But the skew from sales mix in a market the size of Edinburgh, Glasgow or Aberdeen is small enough, that a blunt average is still a useful proxy for how that market is doing in general.
Your claim that such averages are "meaningless" simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
The total blunt average is up, the less prone to skew average by house type is up (in most cases) and more to the point, individual houses are selling for similar prices, or even more in some areas, now than they did then.
And ultimately, it's the price you can agree with a seller of the house you want to buy that matters to most people.
Not some abstract concept of what house prices might be if volume and forced selling was higher......“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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