January Nationwide MoM -0.1% YoY -1.1%

martinbuckley

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Really? Show me all these people on a 0.5% mortgage....

Base rate dear boy, base rate. You really need to pay more attention to what other people write.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

AVerage wages have increased every year since 2007. And continue to do so today.

Apart from the millions who are on a public sector pay freeze for two years. Again, pay attention to what is written before you spout horse !!!!!!.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

At the 2007 peak, with more expensive houses and base rates approaching 6%, it was 45% of after tax income. Still far cheaper than when our generation took out mortgages.

And your point is? 29% of disposable income where base rate is 0.5% and SVR is about 4%. When base rate rises to 3% and SVR to approx 7%, these millions of public sector folk who will not be getting a pay rise, but paying extra National Insurance will be paying almost double for their mortgage. 2 x 29% is a lot more than 45%.

nembot

Can understand the denial, when the trend is starting to look more and more like the infamous graph.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

martinbuckley wrote: »

29% of disposable income where base rate is 0.5% and SVR is about 4%. When base rate rises to 3% and SVR to approx 7%, these millions of public sector folk who will not be getting a pay rise, but paying extra National Insurance will be paying almost double for their mortgage. 2 x 29% is a lot more than 45%

29% is for new buyers, FTB's.....

The figure for existing mortgage holders, like those "millions of public sector workers" is significantly lower.

pay attention to what is written before you spout horse !!!!!!.

Indeed....

twadge_face

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote:

Really? Show me all these people on a 0.5% mortgage....

I know one or two... possibly even a few. One colleague of mine is on a tracker of base rate minus something like 1 or 0.5%.

In the office, I heard her mouthily gob off with "INTEREST RATES HAVE GONE DOWN? REALLY?! THAT IS GOOD NEWS. THAT MEANS I'VE LITERALLY, LIKE, GOT NO MORTGAGE!!"

wherediditallgothen wrote: »

You don't read too well do you? What happens when base rate goes up?

They, er, just start paying a mortgage again? Some will be stiffed. But that's the price of a generous government windfall for the indebted.

The message from the government was plain to see... LABOUR SAYS: those who save can get f**ked.

bingobob777

Batchy wrote: »

if you look at the 3 month on the 3 month figure is back on an upward trend, soon to stagnating... You dont have to like it or accept it, its just the way it is.

When earnings start to rise due to higher than expected inflation, so too will house prices.

What I dont understand is everyone on here is going on about the high inflation, high inflation, But none of you are realising what is going to happen in the future, even if we curb inflation, wages still have to play some sort of catchup, and when this happens, affordability will be eased and house prices will be the first to bounce.

I take it you didn't read Mervyn Kings speech last week then?

ultrawomble

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

29% is for new buyers, FTB's.....

The figure for existing mortgage holders, like those "millions of public sector workers" is significantly lower.



Indeed....

Assuming that they've been following a repayment mortgage. If they've mewed or are on interest only......

bingobob777

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Mortgage payments for FTB's now at just 29% of after tax income, versus 68% in 1990.

Gosh, it must be miserable paying half the amount our generation had to for housing.... And having all the benefits of mostly everything else being cheaper and better as well.

I wonder how they cope.....;)



Indeed.....

evidence?

assuming the average first time buyers house has a mortgage of 100k (low I know) this would mean a mortgage of around what £600? Meaning a take home pay of £2k meaning a salary of £30k minimum.

So the average first time buyer with a mortgage of 60% of average house price is on 5k more than the average salary?

Yeh Right.

IveSeenTheLight

joguest wrote: »

Derbyshire

That would seem unfortunate for you.
Average prices are 13.4% lower than peak in Derbyshire.

Of course it depends on your property, type, location etc and could be far lower than the average, with other areas fareing far better.

To get 40% lower when the average is only 13.4% lower does not bode well in my opinion.

StevieJ

Percy1983 wrote: »

Was the 1990 BOE IR around 13%, so yes as a FTB I will be looking at around 6% (way above base, but anyway) what was the average mortgage rate when IR's where 13%, even if the mortgage is matching the BOE rate it will still cost a lot more.

Also what incomes are you using, is it average household? average single wage or average joint wage.

I don't think we have an apples to apples comparison here.

I was paying 15.4% in 1990.

Batchy

bingobob777 wrote: »

evidence?

assuming the average first time buyers house has a mortgage of 100k (low I know) this would mean a mortgage of around what £600? Meaning a take home pay of £2k meaning a salary of £30k minimum.

So the average first time buyer with a mortgage of 60% of average house price is on 5k more than the average salary?

Yeh Right.

On a mortgage of 100k there is no reason for the mortgage payment to be that high... at 4% more like £530pm so more like 28k earnings needed. The total housing costs would be more like 800 per month with most bills, still leaving them 1k to survive (oh no this is the end of the world), each 1% increase in Base should they be tracking will result in £57 increase in mortgage. They dont think this year will even be more than 0.75% in total... so thats probably £40 quid per annum increase if we get rising rates but it will more than likely be fixed for between 2-5 years anyway. A 2% payrise will just about cover that each year (average wage growth currently). So fix for 5 years, after 5 years it will still cover a 4% jump in base rates easily when your remortgage or revert to SVR. Spending will be curbed... but it wont be the end of the world.

FTBers are not people who just left school, they are on average 35 year olds. Most of them probably earn OVER 30k and middle managers.