January Nationwide MoM -0.1% YoY -1.1%

Percy1983

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

"At the same time, there are few signs of a glut of unsold homes building up on the market that would lead to a sharper price correction. Indeed, there are tentative signs that the volume of homes coming onto the market may be slowing."

Highlighted a word for you.

Either way a slow down doesn't equal a stop.

smeagold

Batchy wrote: »

if you look at the 3 month on the 3 month figure is back on an upward trend, soon to stagnating... You dont have to like it or accept it, its just the way it is.

When earnings start to rise due to higher than expected inflation, so too will house prices.

What I dont understand is everyone on here is going on about the high inflation, high inflation, But none of you are realising what is going to happen in the future, even if we curb inflation, wages still have to play some sort of catchup, and when this happens, affordability will be eased and house prices will be the first to bounce.

Pure fantasy, wages will never outstrip inflation so everyones is getting poorer, almost everyones in debt, few have any savings, taxes are rising, credit restrictions are tightening and rates will soon rise. Even now with the lowest IR poss houses are still falling.

Batchy

smeagold wrote: »

Pure fantasy, wages will never outstrip inflation so everyones is getting poorer, almost everyones in debt, few have any savings, taxes are rising, credit restrictions are tightening and rates will soon rise. Even now with the lowest IR poss houses are still falling.

Ok lets put it this way.

If your wages increased greater than inflation
You wasnt in debt
You had plenty of savings
Factually credit is not tightening (it did in 2008/2009 and then loosened in 2010) its just happening... slowly.
Taxes are rising but not significantly so its more in the future than it is now. Plus its not a lot higher than any other eurozone country.

The fact house prices have fell...

Would you therefore consider yourself in a priviledged position, and therefore buy a house?

Kohoutek

Batchy wrote: »

Ok lets put it this way.

If your wages increased greater than inflation
You wasnt in debt
You had plenty of savings

The fact house prices have fell...

Would you therefore consider yourself in a priviledged position, and therefore buy a house?

Wouldn't people in the "privileged position" you describe almost certainly already own a house?

Mallotum_X

Batchy wrote: »

The fact house prices have fell...

Would you therefore consider yourself in a priviledged position, and therefore buy a house?

So prices are falling then?


In your example transaction volumes would probably increase, but what about prices? Stagnate at the new normal lower price?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

joguest wrote: »

(Non-seasonally-adjusted, LR shifted back 3 months to account for lag)

Non seasonally adjusted..... I take it you're aware they seasonally adjust for a reason? Because prices fall this time every year.

Something tells me the NSA graphs will be missing in action when the spring bounce shows prices rising again......:D

And that same chart appears on the blog of HPC this morning.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2011/02/blog-mom-yoy-32212.php

It's a bit misleading, but then again it is hpc....;)

Batchy

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So prices are falling then?


In your example transaction volumes would probably increase, but what about prices? Stagnate at the new normal lower price?

You take one snippet out of a quote, why dont you just re-read what I wrote, and answer a simple question.

Yes prices have fell... your mistaking me for someone trying to ramp prices... a Bear even.

I brought mine siginificantly below 2007 levels. lol.

I was a Bear, and now I am a Bull/Bear, which is where I think we are, ie, stagnation. I brought as the FTSE 100 recovered, and when the FTSE recovers its a good sign for the economy IMO, and normally proceeds the housing market "good feeling".

Batchy

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So prices are falling then?


In your example transaction volumes would probably increase, but what about prices? Stagnate at the new normal lower price?

Yes they will stagnate... at the new lower price...
Until wages start rising slowly. then we will see 5%6% gains... per annum, as people start to get confident again... hopefully not for about 4/5 years.

joguest

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Non seasonally adjusted..... I take it you're aware they seasonally adjust for a reason? Because prices fall this time every year.

Something tells me the NSA graphs will be missing in action when the spring bounce shows prices rising again......:D

And that same chart appears on the blog of HPC this morning.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2011/02/blog-mom-yoy-32212.php

It's a bit misleading, but then again it is hpc....;)

1. If prices fall this time every year then why did they continue rising at the end of 2009 through to the middle of 2010?

2. If the "spring bounce" happens every year then what happened to it in 2008? - why doesn't it show up on the chart?

When the seasonal variations don't actually happen then the seasonal adjustments are completely misleading; that is why I plotted the non-seasonally adjusted data. This data is plotted over several years, so an observer may therefore look at any seasonal variations themselves and make up their own mind. Besides, nobody ever buys a house at a seasonally adjusted price.

I posted the same chart on another site. So what?

Percy1983

As much as we can argue for and against seasonal adjustment the way it is calculated at times is questionable.

Surely all seasonal adjustments over a year should equal 0, but they don't always.