CPI Up to 3.7% RPI Up to 4.8%

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why not?

It's a product that hasn't increased in price to the consumer due to the VAT rise on some products. The simpletons then think great I saved some money, just like they thought they were saving money before Christmas. (If the price was the same did they beat the VAT increase?)

It's also a product that will be included in the stripping out you are doing from the CPI figures.

Doesn't matter what the product is, it's included in your stripping out.

What is a good example? Apparently not pound shops, apparently not electrical items....but you WILL use these examples when you wish to strip them out of the CPI figures.

No you go girl,

Why have they not stopped the VAT increase on fuel GD.

You are compleatly missing the point of how easy it is to hide falls to cover the VAT rise.

If they genuinley not passing on VAT increase why has petrol gone up at tesco stores?
Hard to hide on a daily priced item perhaps.

Oh you don't like the £1.20 shop, thought not. Are any of the pound shop items in the basket?

Are we saying inflation should be falling next month as retailers do not put up prices?

All I'm doing is, like I always do, bringing reality to the table

Reality is that TAX has gone up and in DEC 2010 I dare say every retailer had passed on the January 2010 VAT increase by then.
I also expect them not to have kept their prices the same as when VAT was 15% in DEC 2009 the point where they look at YOY.

That is the reality, anyone saying they "may not have passed on an increase" is flogging a dead horse on DEC 2010 figures.

ILW

Really2 wrote: »

I thought most of the £ shops were "XXXXX saver" stores now or "£ stretcher"?

You must live in a posh area, near me there is both a pound shop and a 99p shop.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

No you go girl,

Why have they not stopped the VAT increase on fuel GD.

You are compleatly missing the point of how easy it is to hide falls to cover the VAT rise.

If they genuinley not passing on VAT increase why has petrol gone up at tesco stores?
Hard to hide on a daily priced item perhaps.

Oh you don't like the £1.20 shop, thought not. Are any of the pound shop items in the basket?

Are we saying inflation should be falling next month as retailers do not put up prices?

Oh dear lord.

No, no and no. All I'm asking is that you look at the CPIY figure, and either stop using it as fact, or keep using it, but acknowledge that CPIY overstates and therefore you are ovstating the effect.

That. Is. All.

We don't need to talk about the rest of this tripe. Pound shops, VAT on fuel, someones sandwich at the weekend etc. Neither do we need to be going on about "you go girl" and anything else.

All I wanted to talk about was CPIY and how it's used.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No, no and no. All I'm asking is that you look at the CPIY figure, and either stop using it as fact, or keep using it, but acknowledge that CPIY overstates and therefore you are ovstating the effect.

That. Is. All.

CPI-Y is factual DATA it is as Factual as CPI? There is no way of knowing if it over or understates as all people against it are saying prices may not have been passed on based on the fact not all shops dropped prices when prices fell?

I would say bey DEC 2010 (These figures) the rise was fully passed on so the argument is irrelevent IMHO. It is YOY, do you really think by then shops had taken a 12 month hit and were brassing for another 12 months of hits at least.

I love the mentality tesco don't pass on tax rises but banks will pass on every Base Rate one one on here I really do.

Really2

ILW wrote: »

You must live in a posh area, near me there is both a pound shop and a 99p shop.

The way they make money is by selling stuff at a slight loss and then selling tat way over cost and hope you buy for convenience.

You just stop some of your higher cost lines and supply new cheaper cost lines. Look no VAT increase.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

CPI-Y is factual DATA it is as Factual as CPI? There is no way of knowing if it over or understates as all people against it are saying prices may not have been passed on based on the fact not all shops dropped prices when prices fell?

I would say bey DEC 2010 (These figures) the rise was fully passed on so the argument is irrelevent IMHO. It is YOY, do you really think by then shops had taken a 12 month hit and were brassing for another 12 months of hits at least.

I love the mentality tesco don't pass on tax rises but banks will pass on every Base Rate one one on here I really do.

Alright I give up on this one.

If you, and possibly others want to just close your ears, sing la la la while moving the goalposts every 2 seconds in response to anyone trying to delve a little further into the figures you wish to keep using, then I can't really go much further can I.

Even Hamish accepted it pretty much straight away, and talked about the 2.8% figure.

Really2

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/category/inflation/
Source: 2

The CPIY is the same as the CPI except that it excludes price changes which are directly due to changes in indirect taxation (such as the increase in air passenger duty, which came into effect from 1 November 2010).

The CPI-CT is the same as the CPI except that tax rates are kept constant at the rates they were in the base period

Clearly it is also important to strip away tax changes to get an understanding of the underlying ‘core’ inflation. Tax increases tend to be a one off so will not affect the price level next year (unless the chancellor raises the VAT by 2.5% every year)

Yes it's me graham, not the media.

Still many are saying tho hold nerve but you paint the picture that it is all down to prices and VAT was never passed on, even after 11 months.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

moving the goalposts every 2 seconds i

Where have I once done that on this thread?

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Even Hamish accepted it pretty much straight away, and talked about the 2.8% figure.

So did I but you did not respond to if we would be debating now if 2.8% was correct?

Lets look at your quote.

These measures, however, understate "true" inflation because they are calculated on the assumption that indirect tax hikes are passed on in full to consumers. ONS research on the December 2008 VAT reduction from 17.5% to 15% indicated pass-through of only one-third. Assuming that one-half of the increase in VAT and other indirect taxes last year was reflected in the prices charged to consumers, inflation would now be about 2.8% had tax rates remained stable.

So they are using date on falling to assume rises will follow? I cant call that a fact. If we apply it to banks I assume you think most banks wont pass on rate rises either?

They are businesses, lets extend logic a bit here. On Dec 2010 do we really think that half of shops had not added the 2.5% VAT rise seen as it had been in place 11months and due to go up again the following month.

Reality tells me 100% of businesses would have passed the rise on within 11month TBH.
Jan on Jan may be different? but unless they are saying places have now not passed on 5% of vat rises I fail to see it being accurate?

ILW

Really2 wrote: »

The way they make money is by selling stuff at a slight loss and then selling tat way over cost and hope you buy for convenience.

You just stop some of your higher cost lines and supply new cheaper cost lines. Look no VAT increase.

True, but I still maintain that the VAT rise cannot be directly connected to (or reversed out of) published inflation figures as you seem to assume.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Still many are saying tho hold nerve but you paint the picture that it is all down to prices and VAT was never passed on, even after 11 months.



Where have I once done that on this thread?

Read your paragrah directly above the one where you ask where you have once done that on this thread.

I didn't have to look far.

I've bolded the text for you to make it easier. I make out VAT was never passed on? Jesus really, you really do take the buscuit at times.

Really2

ILW wrote: »

True, but I still maintain that the VAT rise cannot be directly connected to (or reversed out of) published inflation figures as you seem to assume.

Why do they do Ex tax figures then? it is not a new thing. 2012 will decided.

I cant see shops holding of vat increases of 5% come January? That would have to be the case if you are telling me they kept off vat rises all last year also.