Your Top share for 2011

cloud_dog

Ark_Welder wrote: »

You miss the point...

Ark........ it was tongue in cheek, you know humour

Ark_Welder

cloud_dog wrote: »

Ark........ it was tongue in cheek, you know humour

:cool: 'sokay. The looming priority of an over-roasting leg of lamb meant that I was unable to expand on the relationship between a specific species of egg-laying pantomime anatidae with the rationalisation of events to what is understood rather than the expansion of understanding to events.

So I won't

Perhaps I should just get to bed a bit earlier on Saturday nights...

sabretoothtigger

Ark_Welder wrote: »

A 'black goose' event? They're out there...

Black turkey is more fitting and yes I believe it. The impossible event is the unwinding of government treauries isnt it


Isnt USA dropped from AAA a lifetime event, this has never happened before.

I know nobody really cares but S&P didnt do it for a laugh, government is their paymaster. Their CEO just 'left' his job, it was done for good reason

I see that as the black swan, gold prices seem secure in comparison. Or just generally practical commoditys seem more assured.

Im expecting some kind of blow up and great upset and maybe really low prices but isnt a commodity and its market demand just the same after a government collapse as before ?


We should do a poll on random 'impossible' events that might happen.

Gold meteor shower, causing price to drop 80% -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/10/meteor-shower-gold_n_955448.html



The really strange thing to me right is just how amazingly wrong markets can be, its very hard to presume that is the case though

Tips from Questor in a 'podcast'- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8752135/Questors-income-tips.html


He says Vodafone yield 8.4% ? :eek: Also Aviva and RSA

If he is right and they are solid, does it really matter if the market is due to fall again next week or in future

Is this 2009 again where some shares have just stupidly low prices that cant last.
FRES was 100p and its 2100 now, anyone spotting something like that tell me!


Silver to hit $20 is more likely then a gold drop. If euro dies and dollar dies and everyone drops industrial commodities, its an assured event I guess http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5bKrEE3crc&feature=channel_video_title

ses6jwg

Three words

Gulf

Keystone

Petroleum

They will be bought out within the next 12 months or at the very least sell some of their fields for a few billion.

Check out the Vallares-Genel deal.

A storm is brewing in Kurdistan

Ark_Welder

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Black turkey is more fitting and yes I believe it. The impossible event is the unwinding of government treauries isnt it

Perhaps what is impossisble is the belief that the orderly unwinding of debt is possisble. A potential problem of an unwinding is that it could be deflationary and that could hit commodities and related companies harder than others. If growth in the west remains low (or lower!) then that will also have an impact on FE and other emerging countries because they're not yet in the position to fully take up the demand. That would also hit commodities.

Japan also dropped from AAA some years ago and downgraded again recently, but its currency is still in demand as a haven, bit like Treasuries and Gilts are - for now


Vodafone is closer to 5.5% historic yield right now. Perhaps the guy is taking into account the expected distribution next year, which should include VOD's share of the income from Verizon Wireless.

Dollar will go on, but events might excelerate renminbi convertability and special drawing rights usage

+++

Don't forget: black swans are not necessarily harbingers of bad events, just ones that are unexpected.

JoeCrystal

Ark_Welder wrote: »

Don't forget: black swans are not necessarily harbingers of bad events, just ones that are unexpected.

That is good point actually. Would invention of ground-breaking technologies would counted as bad swan event? :think:

EDIT: Got to add in the hyphen... thanks Ark Welder

JonnyBravo

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Emed is going to have to beat 12p to convince me its going anywhere really. I would then expect about 15p and obviously when they are producing it should be alot more presuming the plunge in copper prices recently is not long term.

.....

If this comp is for this year, Im uncertain EMED will win I might have to opt for RRL. Obviously if they strike oil in somalia or georgia then its a done deal

Ah yes. I forget it's a calendar year competition aint it? I was thinking it was financial year.

Can't see Emed reaching 12p again til AS/TA and then it won't pass thru 12p. It'll shoot past and open at significantly higher. True enough any oil for RRL will see it beat EMED but there's the rub. No-one knows for sure if the oil is there/is commercial. No doubts about the copper.

Ark_Welder

JoeCrystal wrote: »

That is good point actually. Would invention of ground breaking technologies would counted as bad swan event? :think:

Like fracking? That's ground-breaking technology....


Sorry....:)

chris_m

Ark_Welder wrote: »

Like fracking? That's ground-breaking technology....
Sorry....:)

Groan - got any more like that?
Keep 'em to yourself, then :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

sabretoothtigger

Vodafone is closer to 5.5% historic yield right now. Perhaps the guy is taking into account the expected distribution next year, which should include VOD's share of the income from Verizon Wireless.

Yes that paid no dividend previously so that is probably it

Japan also dropped from AAA some years ago and downgraded again recently, but its currency is still in demand as a haven, bit like Treasuries and Gilts are - for now

Japan is a great exporter, to sell these goods must mean their currency is in great demand by customers. Also the average wealth of the people though not the government is very positive.
USA cant say either of those things are true, their currency is going to get substantially weaker until their exports are very cheap (and in demand and so is the currency) but also their people are much poorer


The bond prices I see like housing. The rise in prices was never justified by a similar rise in rental costs meaning once people stopped gaining from a difference in buy and sell price then their was little reason to hold onto that asset at anywhere near the high price

Money flows to where its best used. We have communist China and other factors distorting this but it'll happen eventually

Would invention of ground-breaking technologies would counted as bad swan event?

Technology is anticipated and it usually takes investment with time but it can definitely register as a negative. Hence we have luddites and in the modern age government regulations and unions maybe

I wouldnt really call it black or bad swan though because its effect is not usually instant. You need that surprise event, the impossible was true all along which is less of an invention then a realisation of gigantic mistakes in market pricing


In 2008 it was impossible that AAA mortgage debt could lose more then 50% of its value
In 2011 its impossible that 1.9% 10 year treasuries are 10% lower then future base rates, would that repeat AAA debt losing majority of its value?

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note's yield closed at 1.917% today, its lowest level since at least the 1940s http://on.wsj.com/n9e1FO