Land Reg Nov -0.6%

satchmeister

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No you won't.

Chances are you'll be outbid by investors as high rents attract an inflow of capital.

Nominal prices are unlikely to fall significantly, and certainly not below the levels seen in Feb 09.

Interesting as lots of property details I get are 'no chain', 'tenanted (but they can be given notice and got rid of)' with 'motivated sellers'. ... London by the way.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

How huge is the lag?
They just released Novembers stats today!!!!!!

What's the average selling time for a house at the moment, 80 days? Then 6 weeks min for the paperwork to go through then about another 1-2 months at present for the vast majority of sales to get onto LR.

So perhaps a lag of 4-6 months between RM and LR.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

What's the average selling time for a house at the moment, 80 days? Then 6 weeks min for the paperwork to go through then about another 1-2 months at present for the vast majority of sales to get onto LR.

So perhaps a lag of 4-6 months between RM and LR.

i'd say 3/4 months total selling time.

counting it backwards these LR figures are for November's and include 80% of November's sales - the rest of the registered sales come through from the solicitors in their own time in the following 2 months and the original figure is re-adjusted if it changes things.

In October (and partialy September) you would see the Haliwide numbers for these LR November numbers.

the problem with Rightmove it is the asking price of the property when first put on the market and it could have been there for 5 days or 5 months; so there's no real way of attributing Rightmove to any time frame or individual month within the 80 day LR lag period.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

the problem with Rightmove it is the asking price of the property when first put on the market and it could have been there for 5 days or 5 months; so there's no real way of attributing Rightmove to any time frame or individual month within the 80 day LR lag period.

I wonder if that's the biggest contributor to the inaccuracy of the RM index vs LR?

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

What's the average selling time for a house at the moment, 80 days? Then 6 weeks min for the paperwork to go through then about another 1-2 months at present for the vast majority of sales to get onto LR.

So perhaps a lag of 4-6 months between RM and LR.

What's the average selling time got to do with it.
It sells when it sells. Time on the market does not affect the LR stats

6 weeks minimum????? Is that a personal guess?
I know many properties that complete within 3-4 weeks

"Then 1-2 months to get on to the LR" Again I question where you get that info from? LR have just released stats for November and were not out of December yet.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What's the average selling time got to do with it.
It sells when it sells. Time on the market does not affect the LR stats.

It will presumably impact on the lag between RM and LR which is the point I was trying to make.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

It will presumably impact on the lag between RM and LR which is the point I was trying to make.

Agreed. I can see the impact on RM, but not on LR

Batchy

I dont see what all the talking point about Lag is... Land reg hasnt just established a lag, there has always been one. the lag is ... its not basing it on asking prices but on completion prices, I would say the lag is about 1 month, to 2 months in some cases, based on solicitors getting there figures out their bums and filling in the land registry forms.

There is no contract on offer and acceptance without consideration, nor when its listed, nor when a mortgage has been obtained... its when contracts have been exchanged and completed.

Fact Land registry is in positive territory.

FACT... the country has just been through the most severe weather conditions known to this country. and Many people were house bound, unable to shop for food, let alone get out into the housing market...Things will have slowed down quite significantly. IMO, maybe we will see an increase in transaction volumes in early 2011 which could have a positive effect on the index's as people are fighting for the quality.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No you won't.
Chances are you'll be outbid by investors as high rents attract an inflow of capital.

Yeah those depreciating assets are of course very attractive to investors. And I bet they're still handing out BTLMuppet mortgages to anyone who can roll a pen across a page.
Aren't they?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nominal prices are unlikely to fall significantly, and certainly not below the levels seen in Feb 09.

And of course if house prices only fall 25% in nominal terms, bulls win right! :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nominal prices are unlikely to fall significantly, and certainly not below the levels seen in Feb 09.

And of course if house prices only fall 25% in nominal terms, bulls win right! :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Has there been a 25% increase in house prices since Feb 09?
Another fact I think you've picked up wrongly geneer