Land Reg Nov -0.6%

Pimperne1

Generali wrote: »

LR catching up with Haliwide then, ie stagnation. The next question is will Haliwide then LR start showing nominal falls like Rightmove which is the leading indicator, albeit the least accurate.



Generally Haliwide and LR correlate pretty well I think, given a time lag between mortgages being agreed and house sales being registered.

First time I think I have seen praise for Rightmove, Halifax and Nationwide in one post. Rightmove, asking prices not selling prices, Halifax is just so inconsistent (down massively one month, up the next - not saying that's not possible though) - Nationwide (what, 5% of the market?). LR is the one for me but even that cannot avoid being skewed when people who bought quite a few years ago are now in a situation where they are forced to sell. I reckon that about 30k have to sell each month, that doesn't leave too many who might be achieving somewhere near what they think they could get if they waited. Have to say the 30k figures is just one I have guessed.

Pimperne1

satchmeister wrote: »

Yes but it makes a 1.6% fall in the last three months IIRC

I think its more like 1.4% (they revised the Aug figure to £167,089) and still about £3.5k up on a year ago. That will be a surprise to most.

chucky

satchmeister wrote: »

Yes but it makes a 1.6% fall in the last three months IIRC

that sounds very logical.

just the same as the DFS sale when you buy a sofa for £1,000 because it is 40% off and you think you've got a bargain.

shame the same sofa was for sale for £800 three months before.

Generali

Pimperne1 wrote: »

First time I think I have seen praise for Rightmove, Halifax and Nationwide in one post. Rightmove, asking prices not selling prices, Halifax is just so inconsistent (down massively one month, up the next - not saying that's not possible though) - Nationwide (what, 5% of the market?). LR is the one for me but even that cannot avoid being skewed when people who bought quite a few years ago are now in a situation where they are forced to sell. I reckon that about 30k have to sell each month, that doesn't leave too many who might be achieving somewhere near what they think they could get if they waited. Have to say the 30k figures is just one I have guessed.

They measure different points in the sale process. RM asking prices, Haliwide prices on houses requiring financing, LR & Acadametrics the actual price achieved.

They all have strengths and weaknesses. RM for example is a leading indicator but tends to be not massively accurate (measured vs actual achieved prices recorded at the LR). LR has a huge lag and misses large chunks of the market (new builds, repos, rebate sales and council house sales for example).

If they're all saying much the same thing then that's great and tells us that they are probably accurately measuring the market. If they are saying different things, assuming as I do that the people putting together the stats aren't doing so as part of a conspiracy to lie about the sales value of house prices, then we can look at what each thing measures and why they might be giving different answers about apparently the same thing.

A good example is that Acadametrics has the average house price 40% higher than HBOS. The reason is that one uses a geometric mean and the other an arithmetic mean (can't remember which way round it is).

Pimperne1

Generali wrote: »

They measure different points in the sale process. RM asking prices, Haliwide prices on houses requiring financing, LR & Acadametrics the actual price achieved.

They all have strengths and weaknesses. RM for example is a leading indicator but tends to be not massively accurate (measured vs actual achieved prices recorded at the LR). LR has a huge lag and misses large chunks of the market (new builds, repos, rebate sales and council house sales for example).

If they're all saying much the same thing then that's great and tells us that they are probably accurately measuring the market. If they are saying different things, assuming as I do that the people putting together the stats aren't doing so as part of a conspiracy to lie about the sales value of house prices, then we can look at what each thing measures and why they might be giving different answers about apparently the same thing.

A good example is that Acadametrics has the average house price 40% higher than HBOS. The reason is that one uses a geometric mean and the other an arithmetic mean (can't remember which way round it is).

Well I still think Rightmove asking prices is a waste of time. As for LR missing out large chunks of the market, not as large a chunk as Haliwide do. The huge lag thing is also debatable - no-one has ever really been able to put their finger on just how long the lag is but looking at the revisions that come in months after they produce their figures they don't seem to vary very much from what they said at the time so I am not sure the lag is a very important factor. The only time I see the lag really come to the fore is when it suits the HPC brigade and the figures don't suit their story.

reef

The sales volumes by price range make interesting reading:

For England and Wales (YOY: Sep 09 / Sep 10):

£50,001 - £100,000: -12% (6,809 vs 7,741)
£100,001 - £150,000: -16% (11,854 vs 14,047)
£150,000 - £200,000: -12% (11,325 vs 12,797)
£200,001 - £250,000: -2% (9,068 vs 9,245)

While at the same time £250,000 - £2,000,000+ are recording large rises with double digit increases for each level above £400,000. Similar figures in London too. Whats causing that then?

Graham_Devon

The more bullish among us....good game, good game.

But it's down. Whichever way you wish to look at it.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

reef wrote: »

The sales volumes by price range make interesting reading:

For England and Wales (YOY: Sep 09 / Sep 10):

£50,001 - £100,000: -12% (6,809 vs 7,741)
£100,001 - £150,000: -16% (11,854 vs 14,047)
£150,000 - £200,000: -12% (11,325 vs 12,797)
£200,001 - £250,000: -2% (9,068 vs 9,245)

While at the same time £250,000 - £2,000,000+ are recording large rises with double digit increases for each level above £400,000. Similar figures in London too. Whats causing that then?

Higher value house price sales.

People moving up.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

reef wrote: »

The sales volumes by price range make interesting reading:

For England and Wales (YOY: Sep 09 / Sep 10):

£50,001 - £100,000: -12% (6,809 vs 7,741)
£100,001 - £150,000: -16% (11,854 vs 14,047)
£150,000 - £200,000: -12% (11,325 vs 12,797)
£200,001 - £250,000: -2% (9,068 vs 9,245)

While at the same time £250,000 - £2,000,000+ are recording large rises with double digit increases for each level above £400,000. Similar figures in London too. Whats causing that then?

The ongoing discrimination against FTB's by the banks.

Mortgage rationing hurts the young and the poor the worst.

Pimperne1

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The more bullish among us....good game, good game.

But it's down. Whichever way you wish to look at it.

What if we look at it year on year?