Investments - Gold, Silver etc,

Sarah920

I have been listening to you, and I guess that the assumption here is that the price of gold is near its peak.

The World Gold Council is estimating that the price of gold is going to rise over 2011: http://www.usaliveheadlines.com/2435/gold-price-prediction-demand-forecast-announced-by-world-gold-council.htm However, http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7qk9z9kz#page-1 shows using boring maths but exciting graphs that the price of gold is most likely to crash in May. I figure that it is worth waiting six months to test that theory.

In the meantime, I have been looking at regular saver accounts, and by utilising the HSBC regular saver (5%), the Santander Regular Saver (4%) and the Santander Home Saver (5%), I could save a reasonable amount of my cash over a goodly period, no? What do people think of that option?

mike88

Sarah920 wrote: »

I have been listening to you, and I guess that the assumption here is that the price of gold is near its peak.

The World Gold Council is estimating that the price of gold is going to rise over 2011: http://www.usaliveheadlines.com/2435/gold-price-prediction-demand-forecast-announced-by-world-gold-council.htm However, http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7qk9z9kz#page-1 shows using boring maths but exciting graphs that the price of gold is most likely to crash in May. I figure that it is worth waiting six months to test that theory.

In the meantime, I have been looking at regular saver accounts, and by utilising the HSBC regular saver (5%), the Santander Regular Saver (4%) and the Santander Home Saver (5%), I could save a reasonable amount of my cash over a goodly period, no? What do people think of that option?

I think that is very sensible. Bide your time. If you really are looking at property wait until you think things have troughed and then go for it. Late next year might be a good time to buy.

Whatever you finally decide, remember not to commit the novice investment trend of buying when prices are at their peak. The trick is to buy when prices are low.

IronWolf

Looking at that graph from 1800 to present on the price of gold, it doubled in price in 50 years. That is not in line with inflation. Also those that bought in the bull markets (as it is now) had to wait decades just to break even.

Compare that to the stock market, Im pretty sure the stock market would have given a much better return.

smeagold

IronWolf wrote: »

Looking at that graph from 1800 to present on the price of gold, it doubled in price in 50 years. That is not in line with inflation. Also those that bought in the bull markets (as it is now) had to wait decades just to break even.

Compare that to the stock market, Im pretty sure the stock market would have given a much better return.

mike88

smeagold wrote: »

The post you were replying to was comparing stock market performance to gold over the last 50 years not the last 10.

smeagold

mike88 wrote: »

The post you were replying to was comparing stock market performance to gold over the last 50 years not the last 10.

buy and hold for 50 years? now thats patience

IronWolf

Anyone can choose a favourable 10 year period to make comparisons.

Shall we look at 1990 - 2000? FTSE wiped the floor with gold.

Long term Gold is highly unimpressive, it has some spectacular bull markets but they are infrequent, and the last 10 years is by no means an indication of what will happen in the future. Stock markets have stagnated for decades before, but in the end its always gone up eventually.

smeagold

IronWolf wrote: »

Anyone can choose a favourable 10 year period to make comparisons.

Shall we look at 1990 - 2000? FTSE wiped the floor with gold.

Long term Gold is highly unimpressive, it has some spectacular bull markets but they are infrequent, and the last 10 years is by no means an indication of what will happen in the future. Stock markets have stagnated for decades before, but in the end its always gone up eventually.

yes and I think between 1632 and 1647 gold went down too and the stock market went up so lets base all our investing decisions on ancient history shall we rather than looking at what has happened in recent history and what is happening now. Currencies are being debased and there's a flight of safety into hard assets like gold silver, energy and general commodities or has the massive inflation in the last 2 years escaped your notice?

lvader

smeagold wrote: »

general commodities or has the massive inflation in the last 2 years escaped your notice?

But still below 2007 levels. So negative inflation over 3 years.

IronWolf

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

10 years isnt history btw

And how is the stock market not a hedge against inflation? If cash inflates companies revenue inflates and their intrinsic value increases, and compared to gold the stock market is far more modestly priced after a decade of stagnation