House prices....

motorguy

tara747 wrote: »

We have a huge oversupply of property atm though. That will take years to even out.

Do we really though?

Or do we have lots of properties that people cant buy?

ballyblack

Or do we have lots of properties that people cant buy?

Or can't get the FINANCE to buy!

tara747

pgilc1 wrote: »

Do we really though?

Or do we have lots of properties that people cant buy?

Some can't, others won't, at current prices.

It will be interesting to see the results of the 2011 census. IIRC, the last one did show a lot of empty houses and apartments. That, to me, indicates an oversupply.

tara747

ballyblack wrote: »

Or can't get the FINANCE to buy!

Same thing.

motorguy

tara747 wrote: »

Same thing.

I dont think that it is the same thing.

As you've said there are lot of houses out there that people cant / wont buy.

The problem isnt 'oversupply' of houses, its people not being in a position to buy them - that the problem, not oversupply.

tara747

pgilc1 wrote: »

I dont think that it is the same thing.

As you've said there are lot of houses out there that people cant / wont buy.

The problem isnt 'oversupply' of houses, its people not being in a position to buy them - that the problem, not oversupply.

It is the same thing. Most people need finance (i.e. a mortgage) to buy a house. Those who CAN'T buy, can't buy because of a lack of available finance - because the banks have (rightly) tightened up their criteria for borrowers.

Those who WON'T buy atm (ike me), won't buy even though we can easily get a mortgage at a good LTV, because we think that prices have further to drop and IRs are already on the rise.

So the problem (for sellers) is threefold - prices are too high, supply outstrips demand and those who do want to buy are being [STRIKE]saved from themselves[/STRIKE] held back by the banks' new lending criteria and rising IRs.

x12yhp

pgilc1 wrote: »

Not aiming this at anyone in particular, but its been amusing over the recent years watching the 'armchair experts' on here talk the housing market 'up' because they have a vested interest in doing so, and now we have a new batch of 'armchair experts' talking the market down as it is in their interest to believe that.

Alas it appears that the latter group have been right for some years with the former failing to see the forest for the trees.

All the blustering in the world about coming out of recession and consumer confidence will do no good if inflation hits double digits or if interest rates are forced to rise sharply to prevent such a scenario.

The crash was predictable. It was MASSIVELY cheaper to rent than to buy. There was no real logic to buying, people were simply carried away by the mistaken belief that houses were safe. Eventually, we will get to the other extreme. We are not there yet. It is still cheaper to rent than to buy and it is a much much safer alternative at the moment. So you can guess at the market turning but the core fundamentals do not predict it yet. Ignoring the core is why people got it so wrong last time.

ballyblack

the last one did show a lot of empty houses and apartments.

Rates are now payable on these properties from October so it will be interesting?

tara747

ballyblack wrote: »

Rates are now payable on these properties from October so it will be interesting?

Sure will. :cool:

motorguy

tara747 wrote: »

It is the same thing. Most people need finance (i.e. a mortgage) to buy a house. Those who CAN'T buy, can't buy because of a lack of available finance - because the banks have (rightly) tightened up their criteria for borrowers.

Those who WON'T buy atm (ike me), won't buy even though we can easily get a mortgage at a good LTV, because we think that prices have further to drop and IRs are already on the rise.

So the problem (for sellers) is threefold - prices are too high, supply outstrips demand and those who do want to buy are being [STRIKE]saved from themselves[/STRIKE] held back by the banks' new lending criteria and rising IRs.

As you have just admitted yourself, the problem is not oversupply, its the situation people find themselves in.

More houses than buyers is a symptom in this case, not the problem.