House prices....

NAR

Certainly no more than £10k above RV, particularly as it is in an estate. £139k is a long gone wishful thinking value, which will take a very long time to aspire to again IMHO.

tara747

bingo_bango wrote: »

But where in S. Down?

Are we talking about a housing estate in Newry, or is this on it's own site in Killowen? Both south Down, but there will be a HUGE difference in price.

He said that it was a semi, so unlikely to be on its own site.

pgilc1 wrote: »

Oversupply is NOT the problem. We are not in this mess because of oversupply, we are in this mess because of the current lending conditions AND lack of consumer confidence.

Those are the REASONS for oversupply, but oversupply is a symptom of the problem, NOT the problem itself.

To prove it, which one of these would put you in a position today to buy a house?

(a) if there there less houses for sale?
(b) if you were able to get a great deal from a bank on favourable terms?
(c) you were confident the market had bottomed out and was on the rise?
(d) (b) and (c)?

Can i predict a response of (d) as opposed to (a)?

But you admit that oversupply is a problem? Yes, it has been caused by a number of things, most notably house prices rising so far out of kilter with earnings. But the only way to fix the problem is for prices to get down to a sensible level. They may overshoot, who knows.

Anywa, to answer your question:
(c) would put me in a position to buy a house. For most FTBs, it would be (b) and (c). However, as OH and I have substantial savings (i.e. we would be able to put down over £40% on a £150K house, and our savings are growing fast), we would definitely qualify for a mortgage on favourable terms.

As for (a). The oversupply does nothing except reassure potential FTBs that there are far more sellers than buyers and that they should be in no rush.

lazer wrote: »

The RV is £92,500

Then that should be your guide. Offer what you feel it's WORTH to you, but don't go far above the RV - that is its likely current maximum value. And point out the RV to the EA when you make your offer. Also, look at the current asking/sold prices of similar houses in the area. Good luck, keep us posted.

£139K asking price for a semi in South Down is ludicrous. :rotfl:

x12yhp

There is a whole load of semantic argument here. I think you will find that the whole thing is cyclic. By pgilc's logic, oversupply is a symptom. But this is not the only logic you can apply. If you go further back you will find that supply was fine. Prices were low and people got it into their heads that they could buy instead of rent or share. There was thus an increase in volume and demand and this led to a transient supply issue. As a result there was construction and overall volumes were on the increase. Financial institutions were wise to this and were now able to cut their margins and open the doors to more people. This brought about more and more REAL demand as people were now able to actually buy property. Eventually things went insane and people lost sight of reality and we had a crash which should have been predicted by experts (but was not, presumably, because they had a vested interest in not opening their mouths). So where are we now??? What of all these things is real? All and none. They are all relative.

At the moment there is an oversupply because real demand, demand from people who can actually buy should they want. There is a potential demand in the wings but it is NOT real until those people can actually act upon it.

The opposite and equally correct view is that there is most definitely not an oversupply issue. One might even argue undersupply. But you have to shift your perspective. You must accept that the problem is a pricing problem. Cut the prices in half and you will find there are insufficient houses for the demand because the potential demand above has been converted to real.

The whole thing boils down to the need to define who society considers should own their own home, and who should not. Simple as that.

FUNKYDADDIO

Hi, is the RV the domestic valuation " capital value" under the insight tab?

Cheers.

steveymp

FUNKYDADDIO wrote: »

Hi, is the RV the domestic valuation " capital value" under the insight tab?

Cheers.

That's the one

southantrim3

lazer wrote: »

The RV is £92,500

I would give an opening offer of £89,950 - if they don't like, just leave it there and wait. If they're desperate enough to sell they'll eventually come back to you. Might take a while, but once they realise they haven't a hope of the asking price, they'll be back - you might have to wait 6 months but will be worth it. :beer:

motorguy

doire wrote: »

pgilc1 wrote:

From talking to many estate agents and many contract builders. Oh and from practical experience.

Some Estate Agent friends of mine are near at wits end because on the rare house that they can get the buyer and seller to agree a price on, the bank valuers come along and say, no its worth £40,000 less than that. Why? because we say so. They then only offer a 75% LTV mortgage, leaving the buyer to find a massive deposit and the extra £40K.

And, again, personal experience. I have receipts for £335K (which would be +VAT if we werent able to claim it all back as a new build) for this house and the site was maybe worth £150K. Bank valuation, oh its worth £300K. !!!!!!?

Just because YOU spent x amount building it does not mean its worth that now. The market has changed you know

Meant to update this at the time. The Rates office recently valued it at £420K, so assuming the +10% rule, theoretically its worth north of £450K. Not that its for sale or ever will be in my lifetime.

Reinforces the point that banks are using the situation to value houses low for their own gain.

wanchai_2

Interesting thread! As a potential FTB, I am waiting it out as house prices defo haven't stopped falling yet! My mate works in a bank, she says that thing are expected to get a lot worse for the local housing market.

x12yhp

I have seen some activity on the properties I have been watching but you do generally find that it is the properties which are very keenly priced or (mostly for my anecdote) when the property has 'added value'. For instance... a nice low end semi with a conservatory and garage almost always seems to shift. Take away the garage and conservatory and it needs to be eye poppingly low to get much attention...

wanchai_2

Yes, those who reduce first and furthest (in a given street, for example) will usually sell, and those who are too slow end up chasing the market down! Have seen it happen to friends of mine, sadly.