Halifax Hpi November 2010 -0.1%

sarkin1

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The graph...

So thats what stagnation looks like, you can see how flat prices have been all year, not.

Really2

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

The rate of falls is clearly gathering pace.

-3.4% Sept
+1.8% Oct
-0.1% Nov

Its an odd way to look at falls gathering pace, come Dec figures unless they are greater falls than sept the rate of falls is clearly slowing.
If they dont fall grater than 1.7% the quarter will go positive.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

It would take some fairly large rate movements to get things to the dramatic stage.

I think by the time rates get back to 4-5% (base) most of the drama will be behind us.

I think house prices for the next 10 years will be very undramatical (paying down debt, and increased taxes).

I'm on the fence with this one.

On one side, I can see what you are saying.

On the other, I really can't see how, if prices can't at least stabalise at the moment, with lowest rates ever known, and the Halifax is having to state "sellers pulling their houses off the market may help prices", interest rate rises won't have an impact.

Prices are unaffordable without "easier" credit. That, I think is pretty well acknowledged now. We'd need large wage inflation to keep up with current inflation, and also allow for people to afford houses with current credit conditions.

Therefore, I don't see how it will all be worked out before interest rates rise. We need inflation to provide the wage inflation, but the inflation we do have is just hitting neccesary commodities, making people poorer.

With inflation, interest rates probably rise.

We've then still got the problem of all those sellers holding back suddenly splurging on to the market again as prices have risen....causing, again, what we have just seen. It's ok removing them en masse, but everyone puts them back on the market again en masse.

I dunno, is I guess what I'm trying to say...but I don't think affordability is going to get any better than what we have today.

Even just the change in SMI rates is apparently going to see another 2,500 repo's next year. And that's not removing it, just aligning the rate of pay to averages.

Generali

sarkin1 wrote: »

So thats what stagnation looks like, you can see how flat prices have been all year, not.

It's a graph of the first derivative, ie it shows what is happening to the rate of change in house prices, not to house prices themselves. If the line passing through the horizontal axis it means prices have, on average, stagnated for over the previous 12 months.

Really2

sarkin1 wrote: »

So thats what stagnation looks like, you can see how flat prices have been all year, not.

Thats a YOY graph, so when the graph hits 0% that means prices are the same as a year earlier.

You would expect the rate to fall to 0% to get to nominal stag nation for the year. It would not be a horizontal line that would be yoy growth.

Anyone else want to do this one for the 1,000,000th time?

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

Thats a YOY graph, so when the graph hits 0% that means prices are the same as a year earlier.

You would expect the rate to fall to 0% to get to nominal stag nation for the year. It would not be a horizontal line that would be yoy growth.

Anyone else want to do this one for the 1,000,000th time?

Ha! Beat you to it. And I got the phrase 'first derivative' in.

You'll notice I've left the one about monthly house price figures being basically just noise to someone el.... damn. Sorry.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

On the other, I really can't see how, if prices can't at least stabalise at the moment, with lowest rates ever known, and the Halifax is having to state "sellers pulling their houses off the market may help prices", interest rate rises won't have an impact.

TBF this year is most probably the most stable we have seen for 3 years +

without the rougue september house prices have been very uneventful this year.

Really2

Generali wrote: »

Ha! Beat you to it. And I got the phrase 'first derivative' in.

You'll notice I've left the one about monthly house price figures being basically just noise to someone el.... damn. Sorry.

It's that faster internet connection you have (even though you are half way round the world)

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

TBF this year is most probably the most stable we have seen for 3 years +

without the rougue september house prices have been very uneventful this year.

Yup, and thats the problem, in my view, and why I still forsee massive problems ahead.

Thankfully they are no longer rising, as the problem would only have been worse.

I can't think of any ways currently in which the conditions could get any more favourable for the housing market, that will help the housing market over the medium term and not cause problems when this help is removed.

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Considering it's been all of 4 minutes since the time of my post, and in that time you've managed to see I've posted, read my post and reply, I'm going to suggest you actually spend some time looking for an example, before coming back to suggest you have actually tried to look, but are indeed actually struggling to come up with anything.

Or next time...at least leave a while inbetween posts, to make it look like you've actually bothered to try and find something, instead of it being blindingly obvious you've not looked, just come back with a nonsense reply.

I don't use my finger when I read Graham, I can re-read the thread in four minutes.

Interesting that you failed you back up your observation as usual.