Halifax Hpi November 2010 -0.1%

IveSeenTheLight

nicko33 wrote: »

no it wouldn't

Upon reflection again, your right

June £166,203
July £167,425
August £167,953
September £ 162,096
October £164,919
November £164,708
December £ Not yet released, lets assume -0.5% so £163,884

So (Jun - Aug) = £167,193 compared to (Sep - Nov) = £163,907 meaning a 3 monthly average drop of -1.97%

One month on
(Jul - Sep) = £165,824 compared to (Oct - Dec) = £164,504 meaning a 3 monthly average drop of -0.8%

We would have to wait until the higher August figure drops out of the previous comparison i.e Feb

In essence, the last two months released figures are still higher than the September blip, but not as high as the June - August figures

It certainly helps when you look at the facts in detail

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yuppeties, I certainly have.

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/mortgages/2010/11/halifax-ups-new-borrower-standard-variable-mortgage-rate

So for new customers.
surely this means that there would be even less re-mortgaging coming through as existing borrowers still have the nice deals.

It just means the banks are wishing to increase their profits above the already widened margin they have been receiving.

The 5 year fix from 3.99% is still very appealing I think
https://mortgages.hsbc.co.uk/product/186-5-year-fixed-special

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

So for new customers.
surely this means that there would be even less re-mortgaging coming through as existing borrowers still have the nice deals.

It just means the banks are wishing to increase their profits above the already widened margin they have been receiving.

The 5 year fix from 3.99% is still very appealing I think
https://mortgages.hsbc.co.uk/product/186-5-year-fixed-special

Its very appealing, yes, for those with a 40% deposit.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Its very appealing, yes, for those with a 40% deposit.

Hence why I said from 3.99%.
There are many MSE'ers out there with that equity

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Hence why I said from 3.99%.
There are many MSE'ers out there with that equity

Fantastic.

That's put me straight about saying lenders are starting to put their rates up!

Procrastinator333

Really2 wrote: »

Well I disagree as it was a reply to a poster saying the rate of falls was accelerating.
It is fairly obvious that is not the case, I just backed it up with some figures.
you are right on the 3.4% it was a a skewed month and that is why the +1.8% happened, so perhaps you need to apply your point to others saying falls are gathering pace.

I assume this is the post you were disagreeing with:

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

The rate of falls is clearly gathering pace. It looks grim for house prices next year.

"The three-month on three-month comparison, a less volatile measure of house price changes, showed a 2.1% fall in November.
This drop has accelerated towards the end of 2010"

That is a reference to the halifax quarterly figure and that has accelerated this month. So I'm not quite sure how suming up 3 months %'s is a useful argument against it.

Also, you mention I should apply my own point to people who point out the rate of falls are increasing. The fact that both Sept and Oct are within the same quarter of the comparison means they are not skewing anything at the moment (assuming it is only Sept / Oct that are the anomoly).

But having said that, I do think DG should not celebrate too early as the -3.7% moves in to the earler Quarter in the comparison and the rate will slow significantly. It would actually require tha halifax average house price to fall to £157,500 for it to even stay at 2.1%, let alone accelerate further.

Procrastinator333

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Upon reflection again, your right

June £166,203
July £167,425
August £167,953
September £ 162,096
October £164,919
November £164,708
December £ Not yet released, lets assume -0.5% so £163,884

So (Jun - Aug) = £167,193 compared to (Sep - Nov) = £163,907 meaning a 3 monthly average drop of -1.97%

One month on
(Jul - Sep) = £165,824 compared to (Oct - Dec) = £164,504 meaning a 3 monthly average drop of -0.8%

We would have to wait until the higher August figure drops out of the previous comparison i.e Feb

In essence, the last two months released figures are still higher than the September blip, but not as high as the June - August figures

It certainly helps when you look at the facts in detail

They use their "standardised" prices. So:

(166351+167536+168124)/3 = 167337

(161974+164949+164708)/3 = 163877

Difference = 3460 = 2.07%

Like you say, if prices remained flat, you would have to wait for Aug to drop out before the measre would stop reporting falls.

They call it quarterly figure, but even this uses data for the last 6 months. But all of these indexes are a trade off. Volatility vs relevance. Personally I think the quarter on quarter average is a good medium. Not gibberish like the monthly figures, but equally not so out of date as the annual figures.

Kenny4315

Bit less confident of housing market in recent months. Feel as if the banks are really getting stupid about things, it's a bit like that sketch on little britain where the 'computer says No', and they don't use any thought process. I think we are going to be about 10% down by the end of 2011 from todays position, don't see a crash but a general month on month downward trend throughout 2011, stablising in 2012 & 2013 with 0%, and upward force in 2014 . Previously did feel we'd have a drop then a recovery back to similar position the following year (when I last thought about it in Oct) but I see quite a lot of downward pressures and the banks and the financial regualators are just being plain stupid.

Also don't see any interest rate increases until the back end of 2011, if at all during 2011.