MSE News: 'House prices could rise 16% by 2014'

iblametheparents

Could... but most likely won't. House prices are still massively over valued, buying a house is currently out of reach for a lot of first time buyers.

martin333

"House prices will edge ahead by 2% next year but property values will be 16% higher by the end of 2014, an economics consultancy predicted today.

Total Rubbish. House prices are set to recover - By going Down! - Maybe by 30% and this will enable first time buyers back into the market without first time buyers the housing market stagnates. House prices only went up with very low historic Interest rates. 200% up between 1998 and 2004. well where I live only 25 miles from centeral London.

Wages and salaries havent gone up by this amount or inflation and Interest rates can't go any lower - the only way now for Interest rates is up.

Where do they find these economic consultancies and who do they employ? Uni Leavers? I have seen similar situations with the housing market many times before since I purchased my first property in 1974. House prices and the Stock Markets are heading South.

iblametheparents

Article in yesterday's Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/nov/09/house-prices-prolonged-downturn

"House prices set for prolonged downturn" - and that's Saville's view, an estate agent!

Paulgonnabedebtfree

Simon11 wrote: »

Can we set up a new policy?

If the economists get close to his predicted 16% increase he lives, otherwise we chop his head off

That show if hes just making new for himself and fibbing

A 16% reduction in body weight then?
Let them eat bricks.

Paulgonnabedebtfree

martin333 wrote: »

"House prices will edge ahead by 2% next year but property values will be 16% higher by the end of 2014, an economics consultancy predicted today.

Total Rubbish. House prices are set to recover - By going Down! - Maybe by 30% and this will enable first time buyers back into the market without first time buyers the housing market stagnates. House prices only went up with very low historic Interest rates. 200% up between 1998 and 2004. well where I live only 25 miles from centeral London.

Wages and salaries havent gone up by this amount or inflation and Interest rates can't go any lower - the only way now for Interest rates is up.

Where do they find these economic consultancies and who do they employ? Uni Leavers? I have seen similar situations with the housing market many times before since I purchased my first property in 1974. House prices and the Stock Markets are heading South.

I'm no economist but my feeling is that house prices will drift downwards too - though I wouldn't like to guess by how much. One of the planks supporting house prices was the so called sub prime mortgage. That has now been superceded by low interest rates. However, all the time that properties are outside the reach of too many first time buyers, the market is vulnerable. I only got on the property ladder myself because I had been renting for 10 years from the council and got a good discount at a time when prices were heavily depressed.

Henry_P_Chester

But it expects low interest rates, further quantitative easing (printing money) from the Bank of England and the ongoing housing shortage in the UK to offer some support to the market.

I think today's bank or England inflation report show clearly show that there will be no second round of QE and interest rates could rise sooner than expected.
Stg rises as BoE report dampens QE speculation
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE6A91DW20101110?ca=rdt

PhylPho

corbyboy wrote: »

Is anybody else getting bored of MSE news articles with the words "might" and "could" in them?

It's more than likely probable that many may possibly share what could be the exasperation on your part (I know that I think I almost certainly do) and that if what are considered to be present trends in this regard continue in more or less the same or not too dissimilar fashion then the whole bloody country will be fed up to the back teeth long before 2014. Or, er, thereabouts. Arguably.

Joe_Bloggs

If all economists agreed with each other then there would be no news. When one group makes an outlandish projection then there is news for a news organization (PA) that has to fill space for its subscribers. It also has to pay the authors for a copy of the report. I suspect they can negotiate a discount as they also publicise its 'findings' that may lead to more sales of the original report.

The contradictory views of other experts further fills up the vacuum of news space that would have otherwise have existed.

We never get to see the original report which was probably a waste of printer ink and paper in the first place. Everybody is a winner apart from the confused readership at the end of the news chain.

J_B.

Sisyphean_Task

What is the average house price today - about £160k?

Oh look..... in Jan 2007 the very same Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) were saying house prices only go up and according to them

"The average UK house price was likely to be £225,000 by 2010"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6307239.stm

225-160 = 65
65/160 = about 40% wrong
or if you like to be kind
65/225 = about 27% wrong

These guys are certainly EXPERT!! A cracking THINK TANK!!

If these guys have brains god help those at the back of the queue when they were handed out.

It seems to me they have some sort of vested interest or else how could they be SO WRONG!!

Interesting that a blatant house price ramping thread from a set of apparently clueless numbskulls with an appalling track record gets to be an "official" MSE Guy thread. I haven't read any house prices on MSE are they blatant rampers?

Incidentally I read an article yesterday with price predictions by Savills (Estate Agent not a think tank!!) and they say:

"Savills even thinks some so-called "doomster" analysts who have calculated UK homes to be over-valued by as much as 30% could turn out to be accurate"

PhylPho

Joe_Bloggs wrote: »

If all economists agreed with each other then there would be no news. When one group makes an outlandish projection then there is news for a news organization (PA) that has to fill space for its subscribers. It also has to pay the authors for a copy of the report. I suspect they can negotiate a discount as they also publicise its 'findings' that may lead to more sales of the original report.

The contradictory views of other experts further fills up the vacuum of news space that would have otherwise have existed.

We never get to see the original report which was probably a waste of printer ink and paper in the first place. Everybody is a winner apart from the confused readership at the end of the news chain.

J_B.

Great post. What's the betting this so-called "Centre" of something or other will soon clamber aboard the global warming bandwagon to rack up yet more headlines.

Sisyphean's excellent detective work exposes this lot for the numbskulls they are, but then we are in the era of the inmates running the asylum. Shame though that the warders seem to be so uncritically accepting of any and all such ravings.