Mortgage lending slumps to £112m

Wheezy_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Confirmed double dip? Bit soon to be confirming in my mind.

You should post linky so we can read the whole article


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8096036/Britains-property-market-in-double-dip.html

The Bank’s figures showed the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell for the fifth consecutive month to 47,474, the lowest level since February.

The number of mortgage approvals edged down very marginally from their already exceptionally low level of 47,500

26

Wheezy_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But a 90% increase in overpayments in one single month? Is that what you are suggesting has happened? And new mortgage lending remains at the same level?

Not sure where your 90% comes from.


Let's assume mortage lending is stable in August and September at 50,000 mortages @ £150K each = 7.5 bn
(rounded to keep it simple and not taking into account remortgaging...)

August : 1.62 bn net lending = 5.88 bn repayments
september : 0.1 bn net lending = 7.4 bn repayments

5.88 to 7.4 is about 25%

Really2

Can some one PM me when everyone understands Net lending.
After 2 years people failing to understand it is now getting a bit tedious.

It gives no indication of money lent for purchases, that is gross mortgage lending.

All it gives you is the difference between mortgages with redemptions and overpayments.

So basically the value (amount lent) on all mortgages held increased by £112M.

Graham_Devon

If you ignore the elephant in the room, who's name is Sentiment, and nickname Direction, you are perfectly correct Really.

I'm sure if it turned negative, you would just claim the use of net lending is simply irrelevant.

Edit: Like Hamish has just done below.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

doire wrote: »

You can spin it anwyay you like. This isnt good news for the housing market.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:


Mortgage approvals last month = 47,500

Mortgage approvals this month = 47,474

Yep, cause a whopping 26 less approvals really needs a lot of spinning.

Idiot.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you ignore the elephant in the room, who's name is Sentiment, and nickname Direction, you are perfectly correct Really.

I'm sure if it turned negative, you would just claim the use of net lending is simply irrelevant.

Net lending does not indicate any sentiment, that would be a survey of people! (I am overpaying because base rate is so low, not for any other reason. It would be stupid not to overpay now because when rates do eventually go up all that money will mean I have secured a great rate on it. I have an offset.)

Net lending is irelevent to house prices.

When everyone remortgages when IR rates go up please I want you to be the first person to say that is the sign of a massive boom.

How you analyse data GD is flawed.
If you thought house prices were connected to net lending you would be under the impression they just increased £122M this month.

If you want to know house prices use a HPI index, their are plenty of them, all you will get looking at this is a view of how much the amount people owe in total mortgages as increased or decreased.

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:


Mortgage approvals last month = 47,500

Mortgage approvals this month = 47,474

Yep, cause a whopping 26 less approvals really needs a lot of spinning.

Idiot.

but hamish - you've done the same thing as Devon.

it doesn't matter how many approvals you have it's the average mortgage amount that tells you if house prices are going up or down.

but i see where you're coming from - you missed this gem of a calculation from £112 million net amount...

DervProf wrote: »

More like 700 people have.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you ignore the elephant in the room, who's name is Sentiment.

Consumer confidence edged upwards in October, a survey showed, confounding forecasts it would drop to 14-month low ahead of the Government's spending review.

The predicted severe knock to confidence in the face of the fiscal squeeze did not materialise, according to respected GfK NOP index.

Analysts feared consumers' increasing gloom would push the index down as low as a reading of -24, but instead it rose.

Graham_Devon

I have work to be doing....but...

As much as some want to play down the relevance of these figures, they stand next to:

- Falling house prices on the Nationwide index.
- Falling house prices on the Halifax index (last one, beating all records).
- Falling house prices on the Land Registry.
- Falling approvals month on month (even if last months fall WAS only 26, still falling month on month).
- Falling gross lending figures.

Consumer credit lending is on the up though - great.

May I remind people this is at a time when:
- We had £200bn smackers pumped into the banks.
- Lowest interest rates in 300 years.
- Nationlised banks.
- Reposessions held back, including government pressure to do so.
- SMI scheme extended, and time taken to make use of the scheme drastically reduced.

AND it hasn't even snowed yet.

So arguing over these figures and trying to spin these isn't really going to make much impact considering all of the above.

How do we get out of this? Cry for more lending and a return to peak.

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

but hamish - you've done the same thing as Devon.

it doesn't matter how many approvals you have it's the average mortgage amount that tells you if house prices are going up or down.

but i see where you're coming from - you missed this gem of a calculation from £112 million net amount...

DervProf wrote: »

More like 700 people have.

And you obviously didn`t see the , at the end of that sentence.

Sometimes chucky, you have to be a little bit more clever with you interpretation of what some of us post.

Without the , you have a point. However, there was a little humour/sarcasm in my post, indicated by the . It obviously went over your head.