Mortgage lending slumps to £112m

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

for once i agree with you, not with the down sizers but regarding cash buyers.

i reckon that about 30% of sales are currently cash buyers.
you probably no what that means don't you... Blacklight has touched on it on Post 17...

I'm fully aware of what it all means. It's only you trying to make out I don't know, I can only assume because the figures have shown such a drop in a single month.

Even Standard Chartered are explaining demand for new mortgages is weak, and that was hard for her to say.

I simply don't buy the spin that people have suddenly taken it upon themselves to inject massive amounts of capital this month (at least not enough to create figures like this), and do believe we are seeing a decline in new lending again (and quite a big one).

chucky wrote: »

jeez, i've agreed with you - it's because there are less mortgage transactions, more people repaying mortgage debt and more cash buyers.

You've agreed now, so I have no idea what all that "froth froth froth, you do not understand, PMSL" was all about.

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

for once i agree with you, not with the down sizers but regarding cash buyers.

i reckon that about 30% of sales are currently cash buyers.
you probably no what that means don't you... Blacklight has touched on it on Post 17...

I shall now print this out and have it framed.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I simply don't buy the spin that people have suddenly taken it upon themselves to inject massive amounts of capital this month (at least not enough to create figures like this), and do believe we are seeing a decline in new lending again (and quite a big one).

it's been happening for 18 months

July 2009

Low interest rates have also encouraged borrowers to overpay on their mortgage rather than putting money into savings accounts

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/jul/03/remortgaging-releasing-equity

October 2010

Homeowners are repaying their mortgages at the fastest rate since the first quarter of last year, with borrowers reducing their outstanding mortgage debt by £6.2bn during the three months to the end of June

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/oct/01/mortgage-equity-bank-of-england

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm fully aware of what it all means. It's only you trying to make out I don't know, I can only assume because the figures have shown such a drop in a single month.

Even Standard Chartered are explaining demand for new mortgages is weak, and that was hard for her to say.

I simply don't buy the spin that people have suddenly taken it upon themselves to inject massive amounts of capital this month (at least not enough to create figures like this), and do believe we are seeing a decline in new lending again (and quite a big one).

You've agreed now, so I have no idea what all that "froth froth froth, you do not understand, PMSL" was all about.

As the numbers of people buying hasn't really changed are you saying that people are buying lots of smaller houses?

More first time buyers perhaps?

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

it's been happening for 18 months

I think we are all aware that it's happening.

But a 90% increase in overpayments in one single month? Is that what you are suggesting has happened? And new mortgage lending remains at the same level?

Come on Chucky. This doesn't even need arguing. Instead, can you explain what this means to blacklight.

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

As the numbers of people buying hasn't really changed are you saying that people are buying lots of smaller houses?

More first time buyers perhaps?

No, hopefully chucky will explain it all for you. As much as it pains me to say, he IS pretty intelligent when it comes to this stuff and knows far more than me, just seems to opt for stupid lines trying to make people look stupid instead.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think we are all aware that it's happening.

But a 90% increase in overpayments in one single month? Is that what you are suggesting has happened? And new mortgage lending remains at the same level?

Come on Chucky. This doesn't even need arguing. Instead, can you explain what this means to blacklight.

i've told you that i don't know if it's good or bad. i just don't understand why people are getting so excited and happy that net lending is down, it has very little meaning.

there's also an extra factor that i didn't mention, remortgages. that makes 4 factors that make up the net lending numbers - to make a serious analysis of it you need to look at all of them individually.

as i said to you the most important one is the gross lending numbers - there the ones that tell you if it's good or bad.

DervProf

Blacklight wrote: »

More first time buyers perhaps?

Hamish would tell you "not possible".

chucky

Blacklight wrote: »

As the numbers of people buying hasn't really changed are you saying that people are buying lots of smaller houses?

More first time buyers perhaps?

i don't think that's the case - the people that are buying are the ones who have good deposits or are chas buyers.

have a look at the Land Registry numbers for last month - the number of transactions for cheaper properties is lower indicating (right or wrongly) that for me not as many FTBs are buying

Under 50,000 -2%
50,001 – 100,000 -12%
100,001 – 150,000 -12%
150,001 – 200,000 -6%
200,001 – 250,000 +8%
250,001 – 300,000 +21%
300,001 – 400,000 +21%
400,001 – 500,000 +31%

Graham_Devon

Nida Ali, an economic adviser to Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: “The UK housing market is indeed in the midst of a double-dip.
“Housing demand continues to be depressed while those willing to buy a house will have difficulty in financing their purchase.”
"This coupled with the fact that an increasing number of people are putting their properties on the market is exerting a downward pressure on prices.
"Moreover, recent trends suggest that the state of the wider economy- particularly the labour market- is likely to remain unsupportive in the months ahead. Thus house prices will continue falling during the rest of the year and into 2011."

Confirmed double dip? Bit soon to be confirming in my mind.