Bulls and Bears

Radiantsoul

Seems like we have a range of a drop of 30% to an increase of 40% over the next five years or so. So there is quite a difference between bulls and bears!

mbga9pgf

I have constantly said a 25-30% fall from 2007 peak (real adjusted) was my expectation. It was certainly my pricing trigger for purchase. We bought at just under 30% off its original valuation.

Radiantsoul

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I have constantly said a 25-30% fall from 2007 peak (real adjusted) was my expectation. It was certainly my pricing trigger for purchase. We bought at just under 30% off its original valuation.

But how do you see things moving over the next five years?

Cleaver

Radiantsoul wrote: »

Do you consider yourself a bull or bear?

As a few people, including me, have said many times on here you can't really be a 'bull' or a 'bear'. You can be bullish or bearish about something, and I guess you could be constantly bullish or bearish about something, but even this is debatable.

If you're currently bearish about house prices, it presumes that you've done some sort of critical thinking and analysis and come to a conclusion. Thus, your outlook may change and you become bullish when you consider factors to have changed.

We use the wrong terms on here. For example, we'd say that Sibley is bullish about house prices and Brit is bearish about house prices, which isn't really accurate. Sibley wants hosue prices to rise and Brit wants house prices to fall. They aren't being bullish and bearish in the true, critical thinking, analysis type of way.

For example, if the government announced tomorrow that they were getting rid of stamp duty, passed a law that all mortgages required a 2% deposit, announced they were building no more houses and set a maximum mortgage interest rate of 2.5% wouldn't we all become 'bullish' overnight? I know I would.

So, on here:

Bull = Someone who wants house prices to rise
Bear = Someone who wants house prices to fall.

In the real world:

Someone who is bullish about a market: someone who has analysed the facts and believes that the outlook for a market is poor and prices will fall
Someone who is bearish about a market: someone who has analised the facts and believe sthat the outlook for a market is good and prices will rise.

In the real world you can go from being bullish to bearish quite quickly. We could not say the same about people on here.

JonnyBravo

Cleaver wrote: »

Someone who is bullish about a market: someone who has analysed the facts and believes that the outlook for a market is poor and prices will fall
Someone who is bearish about a market: someone who has analised the facts and believe sthat the outlook for a market is good and prices will rise.

I'm sure its a Freudian slip.
Hope us poor bears have something to bite on.

Cleaver

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I'm sure its a Freudian slip.
Hope us poor bears have something to bite on.

Ha ha! I'm going to put that down to the fact that I regulary e-mail someone at one of our suppliers called Analise, but I'm going to have a good think tonight about whethere there's a deeper reason...

...mayber 'deeper' isn't the right word either...

Cleaver

angrypirate wrote: »

I would probably be classed as a bear

We can't class you as bearish or bullish unless you present your feelings on whether you think house prices will rise or fall and what you've based this on. What you've done is the classic MSE forum thing of saying 'I'm a bear' and then just listed what you would like to see (i.e. house price falls) rather than the reasons why you might have come to a conclusion that house prices will fall.

As I said in my other post you're not a 'bear', you're someone who wants house prices to fall for a variety of reasons. So you're not bearish, you're just someone with opinions on what you think should happen.

angrypirate wrote: »

I would like to see houses drop in price by a good 30% (inflation adjusted) over the next 3 years. I dont want to see people who bought in 07 getting repossed, but would love to see bad landlords getting taken to the cleaners (like it or not, landlords are always needed in society and I have time and respect for good professional landlords). It would be nice if we could return to a stage where FTBs can actually afford places to buy and arent outpriced by BTLers. Investers should stick to stocks and shares.

Cleaver

angrypirate wrote: »

It would be nice if we could return to a stage where FTBs can actually afford places to buy and arent outpriced by BTLers. Investers should stick to stocks and shares.

Just curious to delve a bit further in to your opinions on what investor should be able to invest in. What's your feelings on people investing in shares of companies who invest in property? Or property funds? Or would you like to see these companies shut down so that people can't invest through them?

Taking it a bit further, how do you feel about investors buying shares in companies like Tesco and Starbucks who actively buy land as an investment, often to stop competitors buying it and to specultate on it and therefore sell it later for a higher price?

Taking it even further, most people's pensions in this country will, indirectly, be invested in FTSE 250 property companies via a variety of funds. I presume you don't have your pension invested in any of these companies through FTSE funds?

It's a complicated moral maze out there.

Thrugelmir

I'm neither a bull or bear when it comes to house prices. Houses are very much a personal market where prices reflect the willingness to pay and obtain ( often a unique) item.

Any observations made are on the basis of a far wider context of the economy and more importantly the "fixing" of the banks.

As Basle 3 doesn't impact the worlds banks fully until the beginning of 2019. We are many moons away from a stable mortgage lending market with some years of credit contraction to go.

Thrugelmir

Cleaver wrote: »

Just curious to delve a bit further in to your opinions on what investor should be able to invest in. What's your feelings on people investing in shares of companies who invest in property? Or property funds? Or would you like to see these companies shut down so that people can't invest through them?

Taking it a bit further, how do you feel about investors buying shares in companies like Tesco and Starbucks who actively buy land as an investment, often to stop competitors buying it and to specultate on it and therefore sell it later for a higher price?

Taking it even further, most people's pensions in this country will, indirectly, be invested in FTSE 250 property companies via a variety of funds. I presume you don't have your pension invested in any of these companies through FTSE funds?

It's a complicated moral maze out there.

Rental property is there to fulfill a demand. In fact buying a home is a severe handicap in terms of looking for work. The past few years may be the catalyst to change habits of a lifetime.

My nephew lectures in London, during term time he rents. Yet his real home is now in Berlin out of term time.

Best of both worlds.