Bulls and Bears

Radiantsoul

I am curious as to just how much bulls and bears differ in their viewpoint on house prices over the short and medium term. I wonder if the huge disagreements are just over a few percent or really more fundamental?

Do you consider yourself a bull or bear? And what do you think will happen to house prices over the next five years(in terms of percentage increases or decreases)?

Really2

Radiantsoul wrote: »

I am curious as to just how much bulls and bears differ in their viewpoint on house prices over the short and medium term. I wonder if the huge disagreements are just over a few percent or really more fundamental?

Do you consider yourself a bull or bear? And what do you think will happen to house prices over the next five years(in terms of percentage increases or decreases)?

I have never been a bull, I expected house prices to fall 25-30% in the 2008 crash.
I expected them to fall 2009
I expected house prices to be stagnant for 2010
I expect falls of about 5% -7% next year, stagnating in the second half.

Hardly bullish, bull was used to describe anyone who did not think 50%+ falls IMHO.

Radiantsoul

My answer is that I subscribe to neither theory, but expect house prices will stagnate over the couple of years and might even fall. However I suspect there will be no crash and no surge either. Over five years I suspect house prices will have increased broadly in line with inflation.

Really2

Radiantsoul wrote: »

My answer is that I subscribe to neither theory, but expect house prices will stagnate over the couple of years and might even fall. However I suspect there will be no crash and no surge either. Over five years I suspect house prices will have increased broadly in line with inflation.

I agree pretty much with that, House prices will not stray far from general inflation over the next 5 years in my view.
Boom is a far way off.

wherediditallgothen

Really2 wrote: »

Boom is a far way off.

Unfortunately it's probably not as far away as many would hope. As soon as the British get a sniff of paying over the odds for a house they're away.

Blacklight

Really2 wrote: »

I agree pretty much with that, House prices will not stray far from general inflation over the next 5 years in my view.
Boom is a far way off.

I'd say that was the most likely outcome and historic data backs it up. Stagnation for around the next five years until wages catch up, houses are all of a sudden more affordable and start to rise again.

DervProf

I class myself as a bear.

It`s not that I think house prices will fall, or that I have any strong vested interest in them falling (apart from the fact that I might want to move house one day). I just think that rampant HPI is bad for the economy, and I also think that current house prices are too high for current economic conditions.

I also don`t let the mass "property prices should always go up" message that is perpetuated by the media cloud my own opinions/judgement.

FTBFun

Radiantsoul wrote: »

My answer is that I subscribe to neither theory, but expect house prices will stagnate over the couple of years and might even fall. However I suspect there will be no crash and no surge either. Over five years I suspect house prices will have increased broadly in line with inflation.

This is my expectation also - nothing dramatic either way.

Of course, the usual suspects will have nothing to talk about if that turns out to be the case.

angrypirate

I would probably be classed as a bear, but id like to think of myself as a realist. I would like to see houses drop in price by a good 30% (inflation adjusted) over the next 3 years. I dont want to see people who bought in 07 getting repossed, but would love to see bad landlords getting taken to the cleaners (like it or not, landlords are always needed in society and I have time and respect for good professional landlords). It would be nice if we could return to a stage where FTBs can actually afford places to buy and arent outpriced by BTLers. Investers should stick to stocks and shares.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Prices will fluctuate up and down a bit for the next 12 months or so. A few percent either way. Not a crash, not a boom, so pretty boring for everyone around here.

In 5 years prices will be significantly higher than today though, and in 10 years the mainstream consensus is for 40% rises in real terms, far more in nominal.

bigblackdog

bull , if i had any money i would buy lots of places , all over the world ........