Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

Generali

From Thompson Reuters via the FT:



From Global Insight (again via the FT):

While a drop in house prices always seemed probable in September after Halifax had reported price rises in August and July that conflicted with other surveys, a plunge of 3.6% month-on-month was off everybody’s radar.


The Halifax data will undoubtedly raise fears of a housing market crash. However, it is important to put the data into perspective. The Halifax data highlight how volatile housing market data can be on a month-to-month basis and from survey to survey, so it is best not to attach too much importance to one piece of data. It is clear that the 3.6% plunge in house prices reported by the Halifax in September is partly a correction to the surprising rises reported in August and July which conflicted with other data and surveys.


Rather than crash, we expect house prices to trend down relafively gradually over the final months of 2010 and in 2011 to lose around 10% in value. There is however likely to be significant volatility around this gradual overall downward trend. High unemployment, muted wage growth, an increasing fiscal squeeze, low consumer confidence, difficulties in getting a mortgage, a housing supply/demand balance currently firmly in favour of buyers and a house price/earnings ratio* above long-term norms are a poor combination of factors for house prices. Low interest rates and the current stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers on all properties costing up to £250,000 only partially offset these adverse factors.

(My red ink)

The FT reckon:

Tin hats ready nevertheless.

ILW

Batchy wrote: »

lol... good one, I wonder if anyone is thinking the same about there savings compared to 0.5% rates most accounts pay compared to the 4% + (fudged) figure of inflation.

It's not great but there are a lot of savings accounts paying around 3%.

CloudCuckooLand

how many benefit threads did we have....

and Hamish posts similar versions of the same thing multiple times constantly...

no-one is forced to open/read a thread.

£6k off is great news. As good as money in the bank.

IveSeenTheLight

CloudCuckooLand wrote: »

£6k off is great news. As good as money in the bank.

hi CloudCuckooLand,

Please remember that this is a one monthly UK average indicator.

some areas will have dropped by more and some areas by less.
Indeed some area could still have risen.

So if you are looking into specifics such as saving £6,000, it's best to look at your own specific locale.

Certainly from the last house price correction we saw that the UK average took approx 6 / 7 years to recover while some specific locals recovered fully within 1 year.

FATBALLZ

£6k eh, that's my rent for an entire year. What a profitable day to be a renter, lol.

neas

I do find it hilarious..

I can certainly find numerous individuals who i can quote them from two entirely seperate threads... one where house prices fell and one where house prices rose... and their posts could be combined to be the same argument

Haha ... the data is great....

vs

Its only 1 month data, its jsut a blip its its its...


From both sides... You guys are all biased to high heaven it reeks.

Blacklight

Sage words from Generali as ever.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Some thoughts on these numbers:

• Lloyds HBOS write 25% of new mortgages at the moment (total market share doesn't matter, only new market share)
• Figures are seasonally adjusted
• Comparing this year's average Halifax house price with that from September 2009 shows a nominal house price fall of £1,198 or 0.7%.
• Adjusted for inflation, house prices are falling at about 5.5%pa using the above figure
• The HBOS figure is massively out of line with the others so it's worth considering why. The main difference between Halifax and Nationwide is geographical: Nationwide is strong in the South, Halifax in the North. As Government spending makes up a substantially larger proportion of the economy in the North than the South perhaps this shows the impact of planned Government spending changes.
• Monthly figures are just noise.
• House price indices are not a conspiracy. They try to reflect, with different degrees of success, changes of asset prices in a complex market.

I wish I could get a Generali RSS feed.

poppycod

StevieJ wrote: »

I can already hear the patter of feet into estate agents from people looking to remove their houses from the market

ON the contrary - many will try to sell quickly before prices really dip.

Some people want to / have to move.

Really2

neas wrote: »

From both sides... You guys are all biased to high heaven it reeks.

Really2 wrote: »

Get used to it, the indexes get licked more often than one of John Pescott's Plates when they agree with some peoples VI.
When they don't they are passed off as the work of J.R.R. Tolkien.:D

..........................