Nationwide index +0.1% MoM

Kenny4315

It's been a bit of a confusing time in the housing market over the past few years, recently I have been getting the feeling that the price movement will be downwards, which has been increased due to recent dealings with banks who are in essence idiots. On the other hand the population is expanding, and demand for accomodation is rising. On the whole I see the current result at being a fairly flat period over the next year. Interest rates aren't going to do much, maybe up to 1.5% by this time next year, but there again there isn't many tasty mortgage deals around either to fuel rises. I think a strong sector is BTL providing that you have good long term debt secured, as the cost of refinancing is ridiculous. Rents are on the up, demand is strong, as ftb are both priced out of the market on an absolute price and on the level of deposit required.

We're certainly not going to have a house price crash that is for sure, what we may see is a bit of a drop but in a rolling 12 month that being clawed back.

ess0two

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Can we have a place to post HPC observations? Like, maybe....HPC?

Lighten up.

shupufski_2

There is a lot of chat about this being proof that prices will "stabilise" and just trickle down a bit from here etc.

Tosh.

I am not advocating a crash but the idea that prices will go sideways is grounded in the notion that current prices are "right".

Prices never stop moving, one way or another and the idea that we have reached some nominal equilibrium is nonsense.

The trend is definitely downwards at the moment, it’s just the rate of change that is open to speculation.

chucky

shupufski wrote: »

There is a lot of chat about this being proof that prices will "stabilise" and just trickle down a bit from here etc.

Tosh.

I am not advocating a crash but the idea that prices will go sideways is grounded in the notion that current prices are "right".

Prices never stop moving, one way or another and the idea that we have reached some nominal equilibrium is nonsense.

The trend is definitely downwards at the moment, it’s just the rate of change that is open to speculation.

you're not wrong but some of the people on here forget this - these numbers are averages so there will be areas that trending downwards and there will be areas that are trending upwards.

i'm sure house prices are falling 'round my way' but i'm also sure that house prices are rising 'around the other way' too.

wherediditallgothen

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Can we have a place to post HPC observations? Like, maybe....HPC?

They are probably all banned, what with them having contrarian views to the collective groupthink that is so evident to anyone viewing the site.

Kenny4315

Does anyone have the average prices as per sept 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, to hand on both the halifax & nationwide indicators.

AD9898_2

Chucky is right, there will be no crash at this time, but let's be clear it's not because of any strong fundamentals in the housing market, quite the opposite in fact.

The market is being held in stagnation by low approvals, low IR's, SMI and government controlled banks unwillingness to repossess.

As long as some or all of these policies are being implemented, it is unlikely that there will be any significant correction in prices.

chucky

AD9898 wrote: »

Chucky is right, there will be no crash at this time, but let's be clear it's not because of any strong fundamentals in the housing market, quite the opposite in fact.

The market is being held in stagnation by low approvals, low IR's, SMI and government controlled banks unwillingness to repossess.

As long as some or all of these policies are being implemented, it is unlikely that there will be any significant correction in prices.

but here's the thing though

i'm sure within the next generation there will be one hell of an issue or a bigger crisis than now if the future governments don't take away the dependency of banks and lending being linked to house prices...

call me a bull, HPI cheer leader, house price ramper or whatever you like for thinking this...

StevieJ

chucky wrote: »

where's this big house price crash you guys have been promising for us ages now...

It is all relative

Three month rate of change turns
negative for first time since May 2009 -0.8 %

Sibley

Chucky is right, there will be no crash at this time, but let's be clear it's not because of any strong fundamentals in the housing market, quite the opposite in fact.

The market is being held in stagnation by low approvals, low IR's, SMI and government controlled banks unwillingness to repossess.

As long as some or all of these policies are being implemented, it is unlikely that there will be any significant correction in prices.

I agree with that.

I think the message has been spelt out loud and clear. There will be no house price crash.
I did say this all along.

Two years ago things were looking like that could happen but the government protected homeowners. Once they started QE that was the end of it.

I think prices will rise a modest 3-5% a year from now on. Fine by me. With low interest rates it's a great time to own a property.