Halifax HPI Sept 10 Forecast +0.6% (Aug +0.2%)

Blacklight

Interesting development. I thought house prices were supposed to be crashing.

This is completely contrary to what the tabloids have been printing. I wonder if they have been priting things that aren't entirely factually correct?

Spiv_2

Blacklight wrote: »

Interesting development. I thought house prices were supposed to be crashing.

This is completely contrary to what the tabloids have been printing. I wonder if they have been priting things that aren't entirely factually correct?

Source please.

Blacklight

Spiv wrote: »

Source please.

Sorry, it's early *yawn*

Link

the_flying_pig

yeah, i dunno, i don't think that forex factory are any great shakes when it comes to forecasting HPI.

apart from anything else they are predicting the Nationwide index to be down on sep 30th... given that Haliwide measure essentially the same thing it seems likely to me that ff's forecasting methodology doesn't consist of much more than extrapolating the last few/several months' worth of data with a bit of the medium-term history thrown in for good measure... for example it took them nearly 4 months to wake up to the fact that the spring 2009 'bounce' was happening...

System

Forex never get it right, but 0.6 is a surprising prediction all the same.

nicko33

what's the margin for error?
+/- 1.5% ?

In Aug the forecast was -0.4, but the actual was +0.6
In July the forecast was +0.6, but the actual was -0.6
In June the forecast was +0.3, but the actual was -0.4
In May the forecast was +0.6, but the actual was -0.1
In Apr the forecast was +0.6, but the actual was +1.1

FTBFun

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

Desperation is setting in with the bulls now. House prices are crashing across the board so they've been forced to dig up some dodgy discredited forecast to support their blinkered philosophy.

"House prices are crashing"

Wow, my house has gone down in value by 0.4%. Doom and gloom etc.

Heyman_2

Yeah my house crashed by a whole £1 last year.

Just between me and you, I'm really worried.

nollag2006

the_flying_pig wrote: »

yeah, i dunno, i don't think that forex factory are any..

for example it took them nearly 4 months to wake up to the fact that the spring 2009 'bounce' was happening...

It took most of the bears on here well nigh on 12 months to figure out that house prices had bottomed out in April 2009. House prices rose by over 10% during the following 12 months: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2010.pdf


Oh dear

:rotfl:

the_flying_pig

nicko33 wrote: »

what's the margin for error?
+/- 1.5% ?

In Aug the forecast was -0.4, but the actual was +0.6
In July the forecast was +0.6, but the actual was -0.6
In June the forecast was +0.3, but the actual was -0.4
In May the forecast was +0.6, but the actual was -0.1
In Apr the forecast was +0.6, but the actual was +1.1

er, right, so they recently got the sign [i.e. whether it'd be plus or minus] right in one out of five months, wrong in four out of five?

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

Desperation is setting in with the bulls now. House prices are crashing across the board so they've been forced to dig up some dodgy discredited forecast to support their blinkered philosophy.

i think that's a bit unfair, this is a published, vaguely credible, source, even it has mostly been wrong in the recent past... i personally don't think it carries much weight but i suppose it's better than literally nothing... maybe on a par with a smallish movement in the RM asking price index or similar? clutching at straws a tad but better than just making something up or spewing out a load of subjective rubbish based on nothing more than one's own prejudices and gut feel?

Graham_Devon

nollag2006 wrote: »

It took most of the bears on here well nigh on 12 months to figure out that house prices had bottomed out in April 2009. House prices rose by over 10% during the following 12 months: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2010.pdf


Oh dear

:rotfl:

You may well be extremely wrong yet.