How will the gridock be broken?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

carolt wrote: »

Funnily enough, Hamish, I was just browsing the mail online, and came across this article, which - surprise, surprise! entirely contradicts your point.

Could you just point to the place in the article where it says there will not also be an increase in people of FTB age?

Or admit you were wrong.

Either one would be fine.;)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Probably quite hard to form an reasoned argument when you're so busy making dinner, eating, feeding children, getting children in bed, washing up etc.

Unless of course, you're waiting a whole 4 minutes to demand responses from other people.:D

Graham_Devon

Ooops, my apologies. Didn't mean to walk into a "you tug mine, I'll tug yours" situation.

JonnyBravo

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Still no response then?

How unlike you to call someone a liar and then run away when you're proved wrong...... Not.

Just to be clear, as of 2010, there are just 663,400 people aged 33 (average FTB age) in the UK.

By 2013 this number rises to 749,300

By 2018 it rises to 846,300

By 2021 it has risen to (and peaks at) 883,900.

There is about to be a decade long explosion in FTB numbers in the UK, as a generation bigger than the boomers goes through house buying age.

For every 6 FTB's today, there will be almost 9 FTB's by the end of the decade.

Thats almost a 50% increase of FTB's in a decade. Whilst the total housing stock is forecast to increase by less than 4% in the same time.

Whilst I'm not saying your argument about FTB numbers increasing is worng your numbers are hugely misleading.
Quoting that 50% and 4% and trying to make a big deal of it. Tut.


From your figures FTBers are going to increase 200,500. (2021 minus 2010 figures.... not sure how you get 50% growth from this but the percentage is irrelevant anyhow as I will now demonstrate)

Housing stock you claim will increase 4%. How many houses is that? 1 million based on 25m households.

Now clearly that is the total increase and there more FTBers each year so this may reach 1m over your alloted time period but your figures are pie in the sky guesses. eg How many people of the suitable age are going to rent all their life instead?

I don't think anyone thinks housing pressures will ease substantially but using a poor choice of stat to try to convince your audience is a lame attempt.

Malcolm.

To look at the early 30's in isolation is misleading.

In truth, people First Time Buy at a wide range of ages.

DVardysShadow

shupufski wrote: »

... There must also be a proportion of FTB’s who do not want to enter at this stage. If that is the case then demand is also being deliberately withheld –we just don’t know to what extent.

Nobody is forcing anyone to enter the market against their will. So there are no FTB's who do not want to enter the market at this time.

milliebear00001

I suspect (but don't 'know') that the banks will ease up on lending again, and prices won't drop dramatically (or will rapidly recover). No idea of time frame though, but would be surprised if it was longer than five years before we started to see that happen.

Thrugelmir

milliebear00001 wrote: »

I suspect (but don't 'know') that the banks will ease up on lending again,

All indications are that banking lending ( in its broadest sense) will contract for the next decade.

Hence why the full implementation Basel 3 has been pushed back to 2018. As the worlds Governments need to sort their budger deficits out first. Poor old consumers are well down the pecking order.

milliebear00001

Thrugelmir wrote: »

All indications are that banking lending ( in its broadest sense) will contract for the next decade.

Hence why the full implementation Basel 3 has been pushed back to 2018. As the worlds Governments need to sort their budger deficits out first. Poor old consumers are well down the pecking order.

As I said, I don't claim to 'know' what will happen (unlike many others n this thread) but my scenario seems the most likely to me. The timeframes are unclear, but I reckon the banks will ease up before owners accept the massive price drops being bandied around by some. They will simply sit tight and ride it out.

Thrugelmir

milliebear00001 wrote: »

As I said, I don't claim to 'know' what will happen (unlike many others n this thread) but my scenario seems the most likely to me. The timeframes are unclear, but I reckon the banks will ease up before owners accept the massive price drops being bandied around by some. They will simply sit tight and ride it out.

It took 30 years for banks globally to run their reserves down to the levels seen in 2007. To avoid another financial crash. Banks will be required to head back from the direction they came. A long slow road of gradual rebuilding. No quick fixes.