How will the gridock be broken?

des_cartes

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And yet house prices rose by nearly £20,000 over the last 18 months, with all the current lending restrictions in place.

Gosh, I wonder why....

All the current lending restrictions wern't in place though. Liar loans still made up almost half of new mortgages even earlier this year.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

False. The numbers over the next decade are higher, this demographic bulge is bigger.



They fell for a couple of years, stagnated for 5 more, then skyrocketed for a decade.



False.



No Graham, it's not different. That's the point.

The boom of 1997 to 2007 was cause by a huge demographic bulge working it's way through the system without adequate housing being built.

An even bigger bulge is about to begin.

Slide the bar up through the years. You will find during the boom, numbers reduced, during the falls of 1990 onwards, there was a boom in FTB's.

Not gonna argue it out with you. It's pretty clear on the graph thing using the slider.

New argument from you though, which is interesting. Haven't seen this one before.

carolt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Still no response then?

How unlike you to call someone a liar and then run away when you're proved wrong...... Not.

Hamish, I know you never, ever stop posting here, but strangely, I do - I actually disappear, make dinner, eat, feed children, get children in bed, wash up, etc. Unlike you, I don't sit with my microwave dinner on my lap non-stop whilst posting abuse at fellow posters.

I will get round to reading your links, eventually, and will then comment. As unlike you I prefer to read things first before I comment on them.

As, to be perfectly frank, reading your links is not high on my list of priorities, it won't be tonight and may not be tomorrow - it will be when I'm both free and there really is nothing better to do.

System

Never really paid much attention to that animated population thing but interestingly the peak in 30 year olds coincides almost exactly with the start of an 8 year mega-boom.

If it's anything to go buy then 2017 onwards should be fun.

sss555s

Blacklight wrote: »

1. Stagnating prices.
2. High inflation.
3. Real term drops.
4. A realisation that things aren't anywhere near as bad as people were led to believe by the media.
5. Wage inflation.
6. Realisation that housing is actually very affordable.
7. Rampant house price inflation.

In that order. Expect the end of the cycle in 4 years.

I'm with Blacklight on this one.

Also, the banks/government are controlling the situation so they must be happy enough.

If the lending criteria was adjusted to what it was pre bust then we'd have another boom situation right away. 100% guaranteed! :beer:

carolt

Funnily enough, Hamish, I was just browsing the mail online, and came across this article, which - surprise, surprise! entirely contradicts your point.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1313939/State-pension-costs-soar-record-800-000-post-WWII-babies-hit-65-2012.html

Numbers of pensioners (NOT FTBs) to 'massively increase' - interestingly:

"Aberdeen is expected to see the greatest increase in 65-year-olds during the coming two years, with the number of people living in the city aged over 65 expected to soar by a third, followed by Hull at 30 per cent and Kingston upon Thames at 26 per cent."

System

carolt wrote: »

Hamish, I know you never, ever stop posting here, but strangely, I do - I actually disappear, make dinner, eat, feed children, get children in bed, wash up, etc. Unlike you, I don't sit with my microwave dinner on my lap non-stop whilst posting abuse at fellow posters.

I will get round to reading your links, eventually, and will then comment. As unlike you I prefer to read things first before I comment on them.

As, to be perfectly frank, reading your links is not high on my list of priorities, it won't be tonight and may not be tomorrow - it will be when I'm both free and there really is nothing better to do.

Perhaps you shouldn't post a demand 4 minutes after the initial request then.

lemonjelly, getting it yet?

System

carolt wrote: »

Funnily enough, Hamish, I was just browsing the mail online, and came across this article, which - surprise, surprise! entirely contradicts your point.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1313939/State-pension-costs-soar-record-800-000-post-WWII-babies-hit-65-2012.html

Numbers of pensioners (NOT FTBs) to 'massively increase' - interestingly:

"Aberdeen is expected to see the greatest increase in 65-year-olds during the coming two years, with the number of people living in the city aged over 65 expected to soar by a third, followed by Hull at 30 per cent and Kingston upon Thames at 26 per cent."

Doesn't really contradict it though does it, the 2 scenario's aren't mutually exclusive, in fact both are quite clearly portrayed on the same single source Hamish gave.

carolt wrote:

As unlike you I prefer to read things first before I comment on them.

Apparently not.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Doesn't really contradict it though does it, the 2 scenario's aren't mutually exclusive, in fact both are quite clearly portrayed on the same single source Hamish gave.

It's quite amazing how poorly thought out so many of carol's arguments are.

System

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's quite amazing how poorly thought out so many of carol's arguments are.

Probably quite hard to form an reasoned argument when you're so busy making dinner, eating, feeding children, getting children in bed, washing up etc.