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How will the gridock be broken?
Comments
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Stop quoting fictional demographic growth with zero evidence, Hamish.
It makes you like like a liar.
I like like a liar?
Interesting.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/flash_pyramid/EW-pyramid/pyramid6_30.html“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
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Aberdeenangarse wrote: »About right
That was mildly amusing for someone that logs on here just to troll us Aberdonians.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Just around the time the next demographic bulge of potential FTB's reaches the early 30's average age for FTB's to buy.
A demographic bulge bigger than the boomers, in fact.
From my reading of the graph you point to the bulges seem about equal, or am I missing someing?0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »That was mildly amusing for someone that logs on here just to troll us Aberdonians.
Actually I'm from Glasgow, moved to Aberdeen five years ago.0 -
Stop quoting fictional demographic growth with zero evidence, Hamish.
.
Still no response then?
How unlike you to call someone a liar and then run away when you're proved wrong...... Not.
Just to be clear, as of 2010, there are just 663,400 people aged 33 (average FTB age) in the UK.
By 2013 this number rises to 749,300
By 2018 it rises to 846,300
By 2021 it has risen to (and peaks at) 883,900.
There is about to be a decade long explosion in FTB numbers in the UK, as a generation bigger than the boomers goes through house buying age.
For every 6 FTB's today, there will be almost 9 FTB's by the end of the decade.
Thats almost a 50% increase of FTB's in a decade. Whilst the total housing stock is forecast to increase by less than 4% in the same time.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Looking at what we know:
- massive cuts coming
- bank lending not improving for at least 2 years
- no wage inflation
What we suspect:
- recent decade house price rises excessive
- something will have to happen soon as market volumes cannot be sustained at present volumes
conclusion:
People who need to sell (and there will be many) will reduce their prices to attract the few buyers
There really is no other conclusion. It may take some time, but it must happen.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Still no response then?
How unlike you to call someone a liar and then run away when you're proved wrong...... Not.
Just to be clear, as of 2010, there are just 663,400 people aged 33 (average FTB age) in the UK.
By 2013 this number rises to 749,300
By 2018 it rises to 846,300
By 2021 it has risen to (and peaks at) 883,900.
There is about to be a decade long explosion in FTB numbers in the UK, as a generation bigger than the boomers goes through house buying age.
For every 6 FTB's today, there will be almost 9 FTB's by the end of the decade.
Thats almost a 50% increase of FTB's in a decade. Whilst the total housing stock is forecast to increase by less than 4% in the same time.
Indeed.
Of course, you ignore the fact that in 1990 - 1997, we actually had larger numbers of FTB age than the ones you spout above. (and probably less houses then too!)
What happened with prices 1990-1997 btw???
Ahh yes, they dropped, when more FTB's were around and there was a FTB "boom" as you have called it above.
Different this time though...right?0 -
Looking at what we know:
You seem to use the word "know" rather loosely....- massive cuts coming
Spending will increase in each and every year of this parliament.
Spending will however, increase less than inflation.
The cuts are therefore "real terms" cuts, and will be nowhere near as brutal as some make out.
For example, the government already loses around 300,000 public sector workers a year. Most job "losses" will actually be through natural attrition, and so will not result in forced reducndancy and the consequant pressures on homeownership.- bank lending not improving for at least 2 years
Bank lending has improved steadily for the last 18 months or so. It may improve further, it may stagnate, or it may decline. Nobody knows.- no wage inflation
Wage inflation is happening now and is projected to continue, just at lower levels than general inflation.- something will have to happen soon as market volumes cannot be sustained at present volumes
That makes no sense.
What we do know is that current prices can be sustained at current volumes.conclusion:
People who need to sell (and there will be many) will reduce their prices to attract the few buyers
There really is no other conclusion. It may take some time, but it must happen.
Your "conclusion" is a classic case of GIGO.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
It's not, with 100% certainty, possible to know whether houses will rise of fall in price.
What we know is the demographic trends point to them becoming more unaffordable ... the no. people is rising faster than the no. homes.
I disagree. It is virtually 100% guarenteed that house prices in the UK will rise given a long enough period.
After every crash they have always risen upwards again. There is no reason that this will not happen again.0
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