Shall I invest in funds now or wait for a bit longer

blinko

dunstonh wrote: »

Gold possibly.

agreed actually,

jamesd

Jonbvn wrote: »

Personally, I have jumped out of corporate bonds into blue chip equities paying good dividends. The bond bubble must burst shortly?

That looks to me like a good move. Not so sure about shortly. UK and US inflation predictions seem quite low so that currently reduces concern about that, while equity markets going down or uncertain encourages people to want safety. A few months of consistent equity market increases should change the fear part of the picture and since that would presumably happen with positive economic news that could start a sustained yield increase. Or not, my crystal ball is always very cloudy.

I am content to be using a variable rate mortgage, though. I think there's a good chance that Bank Rate won't rise fast enough for it not to pay and a good chance that I'll have sold before it takes the mortgage rate much above current fixed rates.

blinko wrote: »

i dont think there are any bubbles out there

Gold, likely to see long decline as fear reduces, which should happen unless we go back into a deep recession. Silver maybe for a few years until industrial growth can catch up with production and investment sellers. Interesting that Soros has been selling gold ETFs.

blinko wrote: »

in teh short term i expect markets to head upwards at least until next april, i expect xmas trading figures to be inline with market expectations

That's the sort of run that I think may cause some to move out of gilts, other government and corporate bonds and potentially start a medium term sustained decrease in price, until or unless there's some significant run of negative news.

blinko wrote: »

i would expect maybe an interest rate rise then or the cut backs by government to kick into the economy, medium term i am unsure, long term things will head up esopecially ermegying markets

For the UK I expect the government cut-backs to prompt a recession or close to it, so I expect Bank Rate to remain low and perhaps not exceed 2% a couple of years from now. Similar for US. More optimistic about emerging markets and Europe.

In any case, I've hedged with a variable rate mortgage. My investments might suffer but at least my accommodation cost will stay low.

blinko

i dont think gold will crash though i just think it will head on a steady decline as markets stabilise

im not an expert, but the good thing about volittility we have is that investors know its a rough ride and are more likely to ride out rough patches rather than scramble to main the sell guns at the sign of a smalld dip

so as above i think gold will decline rather than crash,

and again i really dont think a double dip is on the cards, i just dont think any government would allow it

jamesd

Yes, for gold I don't expect anything sudden. For silver, maybe a decent time to buy after there's been a lot of ETF selling, perhaps a couple of years from now. Not that I'd do that, I'd buy miners instead of commodities.

edinburgher

and again i really dont think a double dip is on the cards, i just dont think any government would allow it

To offer an opposing view - have been reading some fairly interesting articles on Reuters etc. that would seem to suggest the opposite - that the US mortgage market may be unravelling further and that government may not have the support to pass further stimulus bills.

blinko

edinburgher wrote: »

To offer an opposing view - have been reading some fairly interesting articles on Reuters etc. that would seem to suggest the opposite - that the US mortgage market may be unravelling further and that government may not have the support to pass further stimulus bills.

yeah people in teh US are sceptical that the first stimulus hasnt solved the problem, it was over sold as a mgic bullet

and the data coming out of the US is poor, housing especially and it onyl created 42,000 jobs recently but this can be offset by better news around the world

but there is still appetite for US debt and the politicans will know that they ned to pass these things for the greater good, so i still think they can pass bills

all depends what the fed says later this week

but its a wait and see and hold onto yourseats for teh moment

edinburgher

and the data coming out of the US is poor, housing especially and it onyl created 42,000 jobs recently but this can be offset by better news around the world

Well, non-farm jobs figures are published on Friday? so maybe more of the same to come.

all depends what the fed says later this week

Fed seems to be looking for a specific policy response from the government, we shall see

blinko

ON the uk economy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11125504

edinburgher

From your link:

The BCC predicted that "the coalition's austerity programme and worsening global background are likely to dampen Britain's medium-term prospects", saying economic growth would slow to 1.8% in 2012.

Now this strikes me as more worrying. I'd rather take the pain now and have things improve mid-long term, but I'm not the king of the economy

blinko

yeah but that kinda uncertainty is expected, on mid term

i think emerging markets will be the a drivers for the long term, as they relax market rules and build up infrastructure etc