Will the govenment spending review be much less painful than we are led to believe?

Blacklight

Thinking back to the budget and all the talk of the tax hikes, CGT crippling every landlord in the country, scrapping NI and lumping it into one tax, etc. None of it was as bad as all the talk in the press. In fact I remember being quite pleased that day about how much more tax I'd have to pay, as it was much less than I expected.

Is the same now true of the austerity measures due to be announced this Autumn? Will there be 40% cuts in front line services and 600,000 public sector workers unemployed by April 2011? Or will we end up feeling like we've all had a lucky escape again?

marklv

No, reserve your seat in the bunker and bring all the beans you can carry

The government will cut as much as it can get away with - no doubt about that. It's up to the unions to fight the corner of the downtrodden.

Really2

Yes, no doubt they're talking up the extent of the cuts and they won't be anywhere near as bad

I say some where in between their is a hit they wont cut as much as said.
But on the other hand I know my Mrs could be part of a 25% cut.

It will be painful for anyone who loses their job. But TBH most not involved with the public sector will not notice much difference IMHO.

Really2

Yes, no doubt they're talking up the extent of the cuts and they won't be anywhere near as bad

marklv wrote: »

The government will cut as much as it can get away with - no doubt about that.

Could that not also be seen "as much as needed" without effecting service too much.

michaels

So if the police take longer to respond or don't come at all to a burglary only the small proportion who are burgled will notice.

If those who lose their jobs have to queue for longer in the unemployment office and no longer get support or advice on getting a new job only the small proportion who lose their job will notice.

If soldiers do not have the latest body armour only the relatives of the few extra casualties will notice.

If the flood defences are not maintained only the small proportion unlucky enough to be flooded will notice.

If the probation service are unable to rehabilitate offenders only the small proportion who are assaulted by repeat offenders will notice.

If planning decisions take longer and are less thoroughly assessed only the small number delayed or affected by poor plans will be affected.

If school buildings are more decrepit and class sizes are bigger only in 10 years will the full impact on students abilities be seen.

So no - most people won't notice....

izzybusy23

Blacklight wrote: »

Thinking back to the budget and all the talk of the tax hikes, CGT crippling every landlord in the country, scrapping NI and lumping it into one tax, etc. None of it was as bad as all the talk in the press. In fact I remember being quite pleased that day about how much more tax I'd have to pay, as it was much less than I expected.

Is the same now true of the austerity measures due to be announced this Autumn? Will there be 40% cuts in front line services and 600,000 public sector workers unemployed by April 2011? Or will we end up feeling like we've all had a lucky escape again?

I hope so, the future of mine and my teams job depends on which way it goes.

Really2

Yes, no doubt they're talking up the extent of the cuts and they won't be anywhere near as bad

michaels wrote: »

So if the police take longer to respond or don't come at all to a burglary only the small proportion who are burgled will notice.

If those who lose their jobs have to queue for longer in the unemployment office and no longer get support or advice on getting a new job only the small proportion who lose their job will notice.

If soldiers do not have the latest body armour only the relatives of the few extra casualties will notice.

If the flood defences are not maintained only the small proportion unlucky enough to be flooded will notice.

If the probation service are unable to rehabilitate offenders only the small proportion who are assaulted by repeat offenders will notice.

If planning decisions take longer and are less thoroughly assessed only the small number delayed or affected by poor plans will be affected.

If school buildings are more decrepit and class sizes are bigger only in 10 years will the full impact on students abilities be seen.

So no - most people won't notice....

Good new is, people can be more alarmist about it. Who do we blame, the people who rack up the debt or those who make the cuts (even though those who made the debt were going to make 20% cuts)

Graham_Devon

If, and thats a big if, all the cuts went ahead, those in the private sector would notice it just as much as those in the public sector. The effect of cuts won't just be a public sector thing, with everyone else carrying on as normal.

For example, pulling a single contract from one of the countries docks could see plenty of private sector jobs etc go. Though the cut will be in the public sector finances.

Pennywise

We'll still be spending as much on public services as we were ten years ago, even adjusting for inflation. As far as I can recall, a decade ago, we were living in a civilised society and had reasonable public services. I certainly can't say I've noticed any significant improvement in public services over the past decade despite the billions extra spent. On that basis, I don't expect to see much in the way of significant reduction in public services due to these cuts. I firmly believe that front line services can be preserved by cutting all the non-jobs, surplus management, over-spending on non-essentials, etc. As long as the cuts are properly directed and properly managed, I think most of us will be fine. It will all depend on how good the top politicians and civil servants are at finding and eliminating the waste - hopefully they're up for the challenge, especially as they've been planning for substantial cuts over the past couple of years anyway, even under Labour! They've had plenty of time to think about things and plan where to cut!

Really2

Yes, no doubt they're talking up the extent of the cuts and they won't be anywhere near as bad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

For example, pulling a single contract from one of the countries docks could see plenty of private sector jobs etc go. Though the cut will be in the public sector finances.

That may be why I said.

But TBH most not involved with the public sector will not notice much difference IMHO.

If you are involved in public sector work / supply (I am for one) of course you will see some change. If your company has no exposure to the public sector it is fairly obvious you will not be as greatly affect as those who are.

Thrugelmir

Blacklight wrote: »

None of it was as bad as all the talk in the press. In fact I remember being quite pleased that day about how much more tax I'd have to pay, as it was much less than I expected.

Except you haven't started paying the increased tax yet. Nor have interest rates risen yet. There's plenty of cost price inflation in the pipeline as well. Food and energy wise.