Free solar panel discussion

jimmyg1981

Cardew wrote: »

This discussion has gone on endlessly.

Firstly if I invest £19,000 in a bank(I can get 4% after tax) I always have the £19,900 + interest available.

If you 'invest' £19,900 on a PV system you have panels on your roof - period! They have no realizeable value.

It is true that in time, all being well, you will be in profit. However to glibly talk 12%+ tax free return is making some pretty big assumptions.

Perhaps you can share your assumptions?

im going by already collected averages and for a 6.62 kw system the estimated generation is 5514 kwh per year so the fit money earned from that would be £2,073 for year one plus money saved on electric, on average £358 totaling £2,431, so for £19,900 investmant that would give you an annual return of 12.22%, yes the efficiancy of the system will drop each year slightly but the annual inflation outweighs it. whats your view?

Equaliser123

jimmyg1981 wrote: »

im going by already collected averages and for a 6.62 kw system the estimated generation is 5514 kwh per year so the fit money earned from that would be £2,073 for year one plus money saved on electric, on average £358 totaling £2,431, so for £19,900 investmant that would give you an annual return of 12.22%, yes the efficiancy of the system will drop each year slightly but the annual inflation outweighs it. whats your view?

I think the point is that the "return" cannot be compared to cash in the bank as the capital has effectively bought something (i.e. the panels) as opposed to being available to reinvest.

Cardew

jimmyg1981 wrote: »

im going by already collected averages and for a 6.62 kw system the estimated generation is 5514 kwh per year so the fit money earned from that would be £2,073 for year one plus money saved on electric, on average £358 totaling £2,431, so for £19,900 investmant that would give you an annual return of 12.22%, yes the efficiancy of the system will drop each year slightly but the annual inflation outweighs it. whats your view?

Not sure what you mean by 'already collected averages'! I thought you were getting quotes.

There is no way you will save an average of £358 off your electric bill. Even though you have a big system you will still be lucky to save £100 a year - many people save much less.

Your assumptions:

No repairs will ever be required - no new inverter( you have 2), no faulty damaged panels or brackets?

Your installer will be around in X years time and will put up scaffolding at his expense?

Future Governments won't mess around with FIT like they have in Europe.

See John list of woes in post #2255

That said, there is a consensus of opinion that in the long term(12 years?) it will be profitable.

However talk of an 'investment' is misleading because an investment shouldn't mean you have lost your capital.

The best way to look at it in financial terms is as an annuity. i.e. someone retires and 'invests' £100K in an annuity that pays say, 8% inflation linked per year. He has to weigh up how long that £100k invested in a bank account at, say, 4% would last if he took out the same amount as the annuity would pay. Obviously if he lives long enough the annuity will have been the best bet.

jimmyg1981

Cardew wrote: »

Not sure what you mean by 'already collected averages'! I thought you were getting quotes.

There is no way you will save an average of £358 off your electric bill. Even though you have a big system you will still be lucky to save £100 a year - many people save much less.

Your assumptions:

No repairs will ever be required - no new inverter( you have 2), no faulty damaged panels or brackets?

Your installer will be around in X years time and will put up scaffolding at his expense?

Future Governments won't mess around with FIT like they have in Europe.

See John list of woes in post #2255

That said, there is a consensus of opinion that in the long term(12 years?) it will be profitable.

However talk of an 'investment' is misleading because an investment shouldn't mean you have lost your capital.

The best way to look at it in financial terms is as an annuity. i.e. someone retires and 'invests' £100K in an annuity that pays say, 8% inflation linked per year. He has to weigh up how long that £100k invested in a bank account at, say, 4% would last if he took out the same amount as the annuity would pay. Obviously if he lives long enough the annuity will have been the best bet.

i mean on similar installs not my own, ive been getting quotes off of a few different companies for the last 5 weeks. i do see it as an investment, i run and own a farm so my electricity usage is higher than average plus my intial capital will be repaid in year 7 to 8, not much longer than a long term fixed rate isa/savings acc. anyway the scaffolds going up on the 21st april so we'll see how it goes. your view of an investment is abit narrow.

zeupater

jimmyg1981 wrote: »

im going by already collected averages and for a 6.62 kw system the estimated generation is 5514 kwh per year so the fit money earned from that would be £2,073 for year one plus money saved on electric, on average £358 totaling £2,431, so for £19,900 investmant that would give you an annual return of 12.22%, yes the efficiancy of the system will drop each year slightly but the annual inflation outweighs it. whats your view?

Hi jimmyg1981

Regarding the electricity saving of 'on average £358' (50% assumed usage on 5514kWk @13p/kWh ?), a few questions to consider ......

What is your current electricity bill ?
What is the monthly usage ?
How much of the usage is when it's dark ?
How much usage in the three hours around solar noon ?
How much usage in the winter ?
What is the PVGIS estimate of generation or each month ?
How much do you pay per kWh for your electricity ?

I'd stick my neck out a little and hazard a guess that to save £358 a year with a 6.62kWp system you would need to have an annual electricity bill of somewhere around £1700, excluding any possible E7 nighttime usage, or a very high & continuous background usage. After considering the questions, perhaps you could confirm whether it would be really be possible to save this amount.

HTH
Z

ronlizpatsimon

Cardew wrote: »

A question! How much do you think your 'rent a roof' system will save you each year?

Googling indicates that I should halve my electric bill - which is £700 a year. Therefore £350 saved. Sounds rather optomistic to me but say it was only £150 and look at it as a percentage on the cost of installation and maintenance (with say "ashadegreener").
The answer if infinate% gain!

PeterZ_2

zeupater wrote: »

Hi jimmyg1981

Regarding the electricity saving of 'on average £358' (50% assumed usage on 5514kWk @13p/kWh ?), a few questions to consider ......

What is your current electricity bill ?
What is the monthly usage ?
How much of the usage is when it's dark ?
How much usage in the three hours around solar noon ?
How much usage in the winter ?
What is the PVGIS estimate of generation or each month ?
How much do you pay per kWh for your electricity ?

I'd stick my neck out a little and hazard a guess that to save £358 a year with a 6.62kWp system you would need to have an annual electricity bill of somewhere around £1700, excluding any possible E7 nighttime usage, or a very high & continuous background usage. After considering the questions, perhaps you could confirm whether it would be really be possible to save this amount.

HTH
Z

Jimmy has a farm so his case is a little different to a typical homeowner. I know a farmer who pays around £70k a year for his electric bill.

Equaliser123

ronlizpatsimon wrote: »

Googling indicates that I should halve my electric bill - which is £700 a year. Therefore £350 saved. Sounds rather optomistic to me but say it was only £150 and look at it as a percentage on the cost of installation and maintenance (with say "ashadegreener").
The answer if infinate% gain!

You would be extremely lucky to get 50%.

zeupater

ronlizpatsimon wrote: »

Googling indicates that I should halve my electric bill - which is £700 a year. Therefore £350 saved. Sounds rather optomistic to me but say it was only £150 and look at it as a percentage on the cost of installation and maintenance (with say "ashadegreener").
The answer if infinate% gain!

Hi

Considering the reply referenced above I take it that you haven't bothered to read the thread at all. I'd agree that it would be optimistic to save £350, you'll probably find that £150 is also a little high from ASG's 3.3kWp offering, it's probable that you could scrape a saving around £100/year.

According to BG the average UK household (non-E7) uses 3300kWh/year of electricity, so somewhere around £330-£350. Remember, solar pv is totally useless at replacing E7 usage.

HTH
Z

zeupater

PeterZ wrote: »

Jimmy has a farm so his case is a little different to a typical homeowner. I know a farmer who pays around £70k a year for his electric bill.

Hi

If this is the case then I can't really see why the SAP assumed 50% has been quoted. It would be useful for jimmyg1981 to check the calculations on past usage history, not the SAP assumed 50%.

When I looked at systems all of the installers pushed the 50% consumption saving, even though I gave them my average usage figures .... of course they would, they're salesmen

HTH
Z