UK Population to grow 25%, Britain biggest country in Europe by 2050

ceridwen

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/7916924/Britain-to-be-biggest-country-in-Europe-by-2050.html

Great for the economy and house prices. :beer:

Not so good for xenophobes and claustrophobics...:D

Bad for the countryside - more of it getting built on....

Bad for people living in areas that are already crowded - more bodies everywhere and more cars on the road...

Bad for the Welfare State - more demands on it..

Bad for those who dislike living in a "surveillance society" - as the more people there are..then the more we all get endless laws/rules and regulations/surveillance cameras...in order to ensure that such a large number of people manage to "rub along together" without too much friction...

Bad for other species we share this country with...as they get pushed to one side to "shove up" and make room for yet more people...

Bad from the POV of Britain becoming self-sufficient in food - it makes that target further and further away (at a time when many other countries are also overpopulated - and starting to try and hang onto their food for themselves, rather than exporting it to us)...

Bad for natural resources holding out for much longer - more and more people trying to share a finite number of resources...

Malcolm.

ceridwen wrote: »

Bad for the countryside - more of it getting built on....

Bad for people living in areas that are already crowded - more bodies everywhere and more cars on the road...

Bad for the Welfare State - more demands on it..

Bad for those who dislike living in a "surveillance society" - as the more people there are..then the more we all get endless laws/rules and regulations/surveillance cameras...in order to ensure that such a large number of people manage to "rub along together" without too much friction...

Bad for other species we share this country with...as they get pushed to one side to "shove up" and make room for yet more people...

If you're asking whether Hamish's posts are naive, and whether he looks at news items with rosy tinted glasses.

The answer appears to be a resounding, YES.

Exocet

Plenty of space in city centres, assuming they haven't pulled down the empty new build tower blocks yet.

Ownership versus renting. Maybe the tide will turn back to renting. Would you rather be selling your property to some eager eyed FTB's or a hard nosed BTL scum landlord offering BMV?

Question. What's the difference betwen a gold bug and an HPI bug?

ceridwen

Thought so....

....bad for those who need privacy more than most - the extra people make it even harder to get this

...bad for those who need peace and quiet more than most - the extra people make it even harder to get this....

I think I could come up with many more problems we are experiencing - and that will get worse - because theres just too many darn people trying to squeeze into the very limited space that is Britain...

Exocet

ceridwen wrote: »

theres just too many darn people trying to squeeze into the very limited space that is Britain...

Yep. All those expats in Spain could kick off a new housing boom. As peoples pets get fatter they need more living space. As mortgages continue to get cheaper, and wages rise to reward us for our hard work we will be able to buy more expensive property.

Fact: There is only 1 20 acre site left in the UK for building. Given the expected population rise to 3 billion by 2012 then prices can only go one way.

All those people who bought a property are perceptive and intelligent. Those who didn't are now priced out forever. Except that, um, er, they will be able to buy in order to push prices higher.

But we don't need anybody buying to push prices higher. Simply more babies creates a demand, not that they can afford it, which will not be met by further building.

Fact: The major building firms are committed to not build any more houses or flats. Ever.

Fact. Old people don't die anymore. They live forever in large expensive houses. Sometimes their pets live in another house.

To sum up. An expensive product (houses) will continue to get progressively more expensive. But Hamish's single BTL property will satisfy our needs and the rent will never be more than three times annual income.

Procrastinator333

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Seriously?

Do you actually believe that the UK Government, the United Nations, the PRB, pretty much every institution out there that keeps releasing similar reports that you don't believe, just take last years figure and multiply it by 30?

All those resources, all those experts in the field, incredibly important policy decisions at stake, and it's as simple as taking last years number and multiplying by 30?

You can't possibly be that naive..... Can you?

Whatever research they have done, they end up with a number that can be reached by just extrapolating the current run rate. Predicting anything over even 5 years out is just guessing. And the next 5 years, current stats look like net migration is slowing, so yes I am skeptical.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As opposed to your entirely repetitive angle that prices are going nowhere so FTB's won't lose out by waiting...... Which you post in so many threads, it almost seems like you're trying to convince yourself as much as anyone else. Not surprising given that prices are up 10% since you started mentioning it.;)

I post that in so many threads because there are so many numpties who believe that "renting is dead money" etc.

Renters don't lose out if prices are flat and interest rate = rental rate. That is a fact. I do try to seperate out that fact (which is lost on most) and my personal opinion that prices are going nowhere fast.

It was about the start of 07 when we were first in a position where we could have bought a place (prior to that we were in education, so not an option). Prices are lower now then they were then. And in all this time our financial position has improved to the point where we are going to skip the first couple of rungs on the housing ladder, so we have avoided 1 or possibly 2 purchases in that time frame too.

To date we are quids in. There is simply no way we could be contemplating a move to the sort of houses we are thinking about if we had bought in 07.

And with all the indexes turning negative, that supports the view that stagnation at best and falls at worst are on the way. So :beer:


And on a seperate note, if you are so convinced, then why not go out and buy more btl? If I was as convinced as you seem to be I would.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ceridwen wrote: »

theres just too many darn people trying to squeeze into the very limited space that is Britain...

False..... The entire population of Britain lives in just 8% of the land mass.

Our population density is lower than Holland's, and much of the Uk is incredibly sparsely populated.

You may have a point about London and the South East.... But that is not "Britain".

So is Britain full up? The average density of the UK is 2.45 people per hectare (245 per square km).

The island of Jersey (where infrastructure and public services seem to cope) has a density of 7.8 people per hectare.

The city of Barcelona has a population density of 158 people per hectare!

To give you some idea where we are internationally, here is a list of all the countries with a population density greater than ours.

174.359 Monaco
67.179 Hong Kong (China)
62.687 Singapore
22.727 Holy See
12.500 Malta
11.047 Bangladesh
10.000 Maldives
9.859 Bahrain
6.977 Barbados
6.500 Nauru
5.911 Mauritius
5.833 Taiwan
5.648 Gaza Strip & West Bank
4.801 Republic of Korea
4.752 Netherlands
4.500 San Marino
4.397 Puerto Rico
3.530 India
3.519 Lebanon
3.498 Japan
3.364 Rwanda
3.333 Tuvalu
3.139 Comoros
3.138 Belgium
3.089 El Salvador
2.975 Haiti
2.941 Grenada
2.924 Sri Lanka
2.902 Israel
2.889 Marshall Islands
2.636 Philippines
2.570 Burundi
2.564 St Vincent & The Grenadines
2.534 Trinidad & Tobago
2.467 Vietnam
2.454 United Kingdom

Clearly, we are never going to have an even spread of population and the isolated nature of some parts of the UK would not be able to sustain high densities without massive infrastructure investment.

But could we accommodate a larger population? The answer is clearly yes, but there would be trade-offs.

People have been warning about population growth for hundreds of years and somehow we have managed that increase while getting almost inexorably richer.
.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2008/09/map_of_the_week_crowded_britai.html

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

And on a seperate note, if you are so convinced, then why not go out and buy more btl? If I was as convinced as you seem to be I would.

I don't own any BTL's. And 75% of my assets are in property, so I have plenty of skin in the game. I take it you do admit having some level of diversification is prudent?

If you're so sure prices will stagnate or fall, why aren't you putting the deposit fund on spread betting against property prices rising?:D

marklv

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/7916924/Britain-to-be-biggest-country-in-Europe-by-2050.html

Great for the economy and house prices. :beer:

Not so good for xenophobes and claustrophobics...:D

Great for the economy? Why is that? Isn't there enough unemployment already? Why do you want a bunch of third world foreigners to compete with British people for scarce jobs? You are a perfect idiot! :mad: Good for house prices? Yes, it will make them even less affordable, that's what it will do!!

You are a total scumbag. People like you should be hanged, drawn and quartered, like your compatriot William Wallace - that scene was the best one in the film for me. Scottish scum. :mad:

Procrastinator333

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I don't own any BTL's. And 75% of my assets are in property, so I have plenty of skin in the game. I take it you do admit having some level of diversification is prudent?

If you're so sure prices will stagnate or fall, why aren't you putting the deposit fund on spread betting against property prices rising?:D

Because while I think it is the likely outcome, I'm not convinced enough to gamble everything.

My current position - If right on stagnation of falls, we will be even more quids in.

If I'm wrong we lose the gains to date and maybe a bit more. That may translate in to a 3 bed instead of a 4 bed.

I'm comfortable with that.

If I put the deposit on a spread bet I would be amplifying both sides of the coin. I don't think I would be popular if our buying potential went from "slightly smaller" to a bedsit.

If I have mis-read your posts, then apologies, but they come across as extremely confident. Reading your posts it feels like you believe it to be a certainty.

Anyway, we are starting to quibble over the degree of belief behind postings. Starts to get quite pointless. So I will just withdraw my earlier comment about buying more btl.