House Prices Heading up not down

julieq

I think professional development companies might just have worked that out if it were true Emy. They do, after all, do this for a living.

By definition, houses do sell at today's price too.

The real reason for the lack of building in the UK is that no-one wants to live next to a building site so it takes a long time to get planning permission, and also that land is at a premium (this is why houses are smaller too). Given that there was over supply against immediate requirements coming up to the crash, it'll take a while to get back up to capacity because of the planning lag. And they will be investing far more cautiously until credit availability ramps back up. But it's ridiculous to assert no-one is building.

Incidentally, the historical norm is most people renting and a few landlords owning the housing
stock. Near universal home ownership is a historical anachronism. I think we're probably either heading back there, or a leasehold system which is a workable compromise between the two extremes.

chucky

julieq wrote: »

By definition

welcome back Julie - i can already see the likes of numptynew, mewbie and the rest of the HPC ghetto running for cover :money:

julieq

I'm only back because I'm on a rest day in Shanghai, it's too hot to go outside and I've done all the swimming I can usefully do in the hotel pool. So having decided I had better things to do with my time than argue with the neo-millenial, I find I temporarily have nothing better to do.

Nothing much seems to have changed here though with the possible exception of the fact that quite a number of bears seem now to have managed to buy at the peak just before we hit the stagnation the bulls were predicting at the tail end of last year.

Which would almost have validated the "if prices stay the same I may as well rent and save a big deposit from the difference" strategy they were confidentally pursuing during the last year of gains.

WD Bears. The action of random chance does mean you'll get something right eventually, at least you're one decision closer to that time.

doire_2

Its amazing isnt it. The past few weeks most bulls were saying the next few years were going to be a period of stagnation.

julieq

Which (unless I missed something) is what I said. And what I was saying at the end of last year. It's stagnation in real terms though, which is bad news for deposit hoarders if inflation is higher than savings rates.

Which I guess is quite likely if the banks aren't creaming it from mortgages.

Blacklight

julieq wrote: »

Which (unless I missed something) is what I said. And what I was saying at the end of last year. It's stagnation in real terms though, which is bad news for deposit hoarders if inflation is higher than savings rates.

Which I guess is quite likely if the banks aren't creaming it from mortgages.

It's been pretty bad news for anyone who sold to rent in 2008 and it looks set to continue.

Jowo_2

Rinoa wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1299358/House-prices-heading-say-experts.html



Basically, shortage of homes + low interest rates = no crash.

:beer:

Friend had an offer for their flat in East Sussex. Buyer pulled out a week later partly because a relative who viewed it with them during another viewing has convinced them that another property crash was around the corner and did want to put in a lower offer.

Estate Agent says he is regularly showing property to people who have been viewing a year plus, who sat out from buying in 2008 expecting significant price falls which haven't materialised.

I'm not sure which way the market will go - definately there's higher supply and fewer buyers - plus it seems quite area specific.

Emy1501

Jowo wrote: »

Friend had an offer for their flat in East Sussex. Buyer pulled out a week later partly because a relative who viewed it with them during another viewing has convinced them that another property crash was around the corner and did want to put in a lower offer.

Estate Agent says he is regularly showing property to people who have been viewing a year plus, who sat out from buying in 2008 expecting significant price falls which haven't materialised.

I'm not sure which way the market will go - definately there's higher supply and fewer buyers - plus it seems quite area specific.

I phoned up an agent to look at a property over the weekend. he was suprised we were under offer as they were struggling to hold chains together due to Haliwide figures etc. Also said he was concerned about a double dip etc due to problems will banks and their commercial loans book. Completely different from the talk this time last year. I'm not surprised though they are struggling to keep chains going with their negative talk though.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Blacklight wrote: »

It's been pretty bad news for anyone who sold to rent in 2008 and it looks set to continue.

It's been bad news for anyone who sold to rent for quite some time.

Which is why all the leading proponents of it over on Moneyweek have piled back in. Their gamble failed.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

Sooner or later the builder will be forced to build or they will come to realise that selling lots of property at 80-90% of todays price is better than selling few at 100%.

That's not reality though.
They won't be forced to build.
They build restricting the market ensuring that they get the maximum price they can.
That's why they release developments in stages and you cannot buy a property off plan from the whole plot until they release that phase.

Reality is that if you would like prices to be lower, don;t count your chickens on private building businesses suddenly deciding to flood the market with properties.
It's not in their interest.

Reality is, that you need to vastly increase the number of properties for sale in order for prices to be lowered, otherwise the builders will just restrict the market to maintain their margins.

The root cause is the government sell off of social housing and decisions not to build council properties. That caused the restrictions in the market.

unfortunately, the government currently do not have the funds to reverse those decisions.