House Prices Heading up not down

chucky

treliac wrote: »

Buy to let's crashed. If renting gains in popularity, where will all the landlords come from?

it may have crashed but who's going to own the homes that the tenants are renting?

Exocet

I think once some imagination returns to the mortgage market - self certification, generous multiples, low interest rates, low deposits, 125% mortgages - then we can look forward to even more boom years. I reckon the mortgage market can then sell off these loans as AAA rated, enabling more money to enter the market. Most FTBs will jump at the chance to borrow ten times their income on an interest only mortgage, plus maybe a couple of flats as well to enter the BTL market.

There is only one way prices can go and that is up and up.

Not like gold though. Gold is useless. People who like gold smell. HPI is good. People who like HPI are special. Houses are cheap on any measure if you play with the figures a bit. Lots of people are buying houses, they won't let the price drop. In fact, they will put the price up, just to teach the moaning minnies a lesson.

2 bed flats in city centres will be like gold dust. Not gold dust, because gold is crap. Like brick dust. They will rise tenfold. But people will still be able to afford them because the government will lower rates, increase multiples, increase wages (but not by as much as houses) and prices will rocket.

STR's won't be able to afford them though. Or anyone who moans about them being overpriced. Wrong attitude. They were wrong, and I was right.

Fact: Only 3 houses for sale in West London, and two of them have offers on them. You missed the boat. Or could make an offer.

Up and up forever more. Brilliant.

What could possibly go wrong?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

Just thought I would give this a bump as maybe you missed it Hamish.

I did miss it, thanks.....

Prices in the fourth quarter will be 6.7 percent higher than a year earlier, rising to an average 179,000 pounds ($279,000), the London-based research group said in an e-mailed statement today. The annual rate of growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 will ease to 2 percent, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-31/u-k-house-price-recovery-will-continue-through-2014-cebr-says-in-report.html

StevieJ

Emy1501 wrote: »

Things may change in the future but the CBR cannot speak for what the general public will be doing in a year or 3 years time so their thoughts are a pointless as anything CE tells us.

Or indeed anything you tell us.

Procrastinator333

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I did miss it, thanks.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-31/u-k-house-price-recovery-will-continue-through-2014-cebr-says-in-report.html

Hang on.

1) Average £179k, what index is that from, it doesn't seem to fit with LR, Hali or Nationwide?

2) Your previous comment was:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, what they've predicted is that the Q4 2010 average will be 6.7% higher than the Q4 2009 average.

And that looks entirely plausible.

Please point to the index and the growth required for the remainder of the year that results in 6.7% for the year as a whole.

Are you saying if we average Oct / Nov / Dec for both years and compare then it will be 6.7% higher?

That is a rather pointless comparison, just compare Jan to Dec. And if you do compare Jan to Dec it is hard to see how 6.7% is going to come about.

chucky

brit1234 wrote: »

Why are we taking any notice of the CEBR? We all know they are funded by the building company to launch vested interest propaganda. We all know their predictions are wrong.

All this story means is that Hamish is going to start 101 threads using todays CEBR related story from various sources for the next month.

And at the end of it none of them will mean anything and property prices will continue to crash to affordable levels.

they CEBR predictions have been been pretty spot on for this year - a bit better than your prediction of 50% off peak prices by Christmas 2009. :rotfl:

In summary, the CEBR concludes:

• House price growth will moderate in 2010
• Prices at the end of the year will be between two and four per cent higher than today.
• Over the longer term, the weak recovery will continue to hold growth back,
• House prices will be around fifteen per cent higher at the end of 2012 than they are today.

http://citywire.co.uk/money/expecting-a-house-price-collapse-it-s-unlikely-think-tank-says/a374244

i've highlighted the piece that applies to a few of you - some are already used to it though

‘Pundits expecting house price collapse will look like turkeys by next Christmas

Emy1501

StevieJ wrote: »

Or indeed anything you tell us.

Oh yes sorry I forgot that whenever one these lot come up saying house prices are going to rise we should take them as fact as people who say house prices only rise are always right:cool:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

‘Pundits expecting house price collapse will look like turkeys by next Christmas

Indeed.....

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

As for the future to you really believe that people will be able to pay more rent in real terms in say the next 20-25 years

I know a property where it's a 4 bedroomed house and they obtained an HMO licence and are letting it out as a 5 bed.
Presumably they are letting out the dining room as a bedroom.

They've been getting £1600 per month for the 4 bedroomed house.
Getting a room for £320 per month is very cheap in the area.

Certainly seems potential that more people will share the burdon of rent

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I know a property where it's a 4 bedroomed house and they obtained an HMO licence and are letting it out as a 5 bed.
Presumably they are letting out the dining room as a bedroom.

They've been getting £1600 per month for the 4 bedroomed house.
Getting a room for £320 per month is very cheap in the area.

Certainly seems potential that more people will share the burdon of rent

Has been going on for years in the SE. One of my mates used to share a house with six other people. The house was 4 bed but they used the 3 reception rooms as well for rooms. Only appeals to a certain type especially outside of central london and families will not or can't live like this.

The average 3 bed house is built small these days and just about big enough for couple with 2 children these days. The days where the average couple wih 2 kids could afford a 4 bed property and therefore consider renting out a room is long gone in most areas of the SE anyway.

Th reality is that houses are not being built as no one can afford to/ wants to buy them at todays price or within a few % of it. Sooner or later the builder will be forced to build or they will come to realise that selling lots of property at 80-90% of todays price is better than selling few at 100%.