House Prices Heading up not down

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Only so much people can pay for rent. Does not matter whether there are 5 people for every one property. There is only so much of the their monthly wage they can afford to pay for rent.

We are pretty much up to the limit now so only wage inflation growth likely from now on. Also the more rental properties out the less rent will be.

you've started to confuse things here

firstly you say that "where in the future only 30% will own" - that obviously won't happen in today's generation.
you then talk about wage increases now and that we're up to the limit now.
you talk about the future but only want to take today's detail above to compare.

that's comparing apples and pineapples.

Procrastinator333

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, what they've predicted is that the Q4 2010 average will be 6.7% higher than the Q4 2009 average.

And that looks entirely plausible.

Where does it say that? The quote I was referring to out of the telegraph is:

"CEBR forecast a 6.7pc rise in house prices this year, slowing to a 2.7pc rise next year and 5pc in 2012."

Personally I take that to mean that prices will rise by 6.7% from Jan 1st to 31st Dec. In which case my previous point stands.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

you've started to confuse things here

firstly you say that "where in the future only 30% will own" - that obviously won't happen in today's generation.
you then talk about wage increases now and that we're up to the limit now.
you talk about the future but only want to take today's detail above to compare.

that's comparing apples and pineapples.

It was Hamish who suggested only 30% of the population will own the future not me. As for the future to you really believe that people will be able to pay more rent in real terms in say the next 20-25 years when you look at the state of the world economy and the fact that low interests look like they are going to be around for at least the next 5 years and beyond?

Houses prices may rise etc over years to come but if they do it will be due to inflation etc not real term growth

treliac

Buy to let's crashed. If renting gains in popularity, where will all the landlords come from?

brit1234

Why are we taking any notice of the CEBR? We all know they are funded by the building company to launch vested interest propaganda. We all know their predictions are wrong.

All this story means is that Hamish is going to start 101 threads using todays CEBR related story from various sources for the next month.

And at the end of it none of them will mean anything and property prices will continue to crash to affordable levels.

Graham_Devon

I'll believe all of this, when those saying it actually stand by their convictions and go and buy houses as investments in todays climate, instead of holding back themselves and trying to use articles to scaremonger others into believeing they are missing the best chance ever.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

It was Hamish who suggested only 30% of the population will own the future not me.

No, what I've said is that as long as we continue to only build 30% of the houses we need, then only the top earning 35% of households need to be able to afford to buy them in order for prices to rise. Existing homeowners will float with the rising tide.

But thats not the same thing as saying only 30% will own. The percentage is already falling, but I doubt it'll be 30% in my lifetime.

Although equally only 100 years or so ago 100% of houses were owned by 10% of people..... The other 90% could not afford them, so it's not exactly without precedence either.

Malcolm.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, what I've said is that as long as we continue to only build 30% of the houses we need, then only the top earning 35% of households need to be able to afford to buy them in order for prices to rise. Existing homeowners will float with the rising tide.

It depends on numbers buying for home ownership vs investments too. If not enough homes are being built, existing accomodation is going to get very crowded - not allowing for any change to migration trend.

downshifter98

What is becoming increasingly clear is that irrespective of the possibility of a near-term 'dip' longer term (3 years plus) the pressure of low building added to a booming population (us locals may not always appreciate it, but clearly the UK is still a favourable place to be) means that house prices will move steadily upwards - add to this the very clear signs that the UK will have extremely low interest rates for years ahead (I think 2 or 3% will become the new maximum) then all the arguments about short term movements are just academic.

The only thing holding prices back now is the lack of credit and, one way or the other, the government will improve this situation (more QE plus more pressure on banks to lend). Asset deflation will simply not be an option - comparing today's situation to the mistakes of the 1930's is like comparing today's cruise ships to the Titanic - in theory they can still sink but in reality we have learned and improved such that it's very unlikely (plus the lifeboats are all present and correct.).

downshifter98 (who is a little fed up with doomsters).

Procrastinator333

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

Where does it say that? The quote I was referring to out of the telegraph is:

"CEBR forecast a 6.7pc rise in house prices this year, slowing to a 2.7pc rise next year and 5pc in 2012."

Personally I take that to mean that prices will rise by 6.7% from Jan 1st to 31st Dec. In which case my previous point stands.

Just thought I would give this a bump as maybe you missed it Hamish.