70% club get it right again

macaque_2

Back in February the 70% club put out the following press release:

The House price crashometer finally hit 5 today. The 70% team have concluded that the second leg of the house price crash has arrived.
For the past few months, the papers have been full of stories about rising house prices. This however has more to do with price inflammation than price growth. Normal home buyers were priced out of property years ago and since then the field has been left to BTL's (with more leverage than brain cells). Within the past two months however, lenders finally realised that the credit rating of your average BTL is about as safe as a wine glass balanced on a pile of Jenga bricks.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2293747=

Today we read that house prices have been falling for 3 months and this:

House prices are heading for another crash next year, experts have warned, as figures showed the third consecutive monthly fall.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/7878766/House-prices-will-fall-in-2011.html

I would just like to say that I feel humbled by this brilliant piece of forecasting.

Other accurate predictions by the 70% club
1997 - Labour would trash the economy P
2006 - Predicted UK property would do a Japanese banana (price falls for a generation). Still in progress P
2007 - Predicted the credit crunch P
2007 - Predicted the 1st house price crash P
2008 - Predicted the suckers rally P

Notice to 70% club members
We don't yet have a venue for this year's annual 70% club bash but we are looking at the O2 stadium as a possibility. On a more sombre note, we must start to think about the plight of people who have bought too many houses. As a gesture of foregiveness I have therefore decided to auction one of my saffron robes. The money will be used to send food parcels to distressed BTL's.

Simian Macaque ADHD

chucknorris

Oooh could I have a case of champagne instead please, if it's not too cheeky I would actually rather have a few cases of cava instead

Blacklight

Yay! Only 69.4% to go!

See you in 115 months time.

ruggedtoast

If theres one thing trolling the internet about house prices for the last 2 years has taught me its that the experts predictions dont mean diddly.

What will make a difference is what this government wants to do about hpi. If theyre going to continue subsidising the housing market and distorting the market then house prices, like rail fares, are unlikely to fall much.

Personally I suspect that the Tories aren't going to be especially interested in paying to keep Wayne and Tracey's names on the deeds, and would rather see the lower end of the market taken over by the private sector and btl. By the same virtue they'll want to limit the pain for larger investors, banks, and the middle classes.

How they'll marry these two objetives together I'm not sure, but I suspect individuals or small investors who are on the fringes could be in for a rough few years.

Pete111

Congrats Macaque.

I just hope your excitement is not premptive given it is based primarily on a single indice and currently contradicted by Nationwide which distressingly is up 1.7% since April and rather more than this in London & the S/E (ie the important bit...for me anyway!)

Can't help but notice your prediction tick list ignores any you may have made re 2009 also....why is this?

Dirk_Rambo

macaque wrote: »

70% club get it right again

im certainly glad i signed up.

Harry_Powell

I love these 70% club posts, they're great fun. Keep it up Macaque, they've become an institution on MSE Economy board,

Really2

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

im certainly glad i signed up.

I bet you are glad you joined up to silver when it was $19.50 oz also.

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

70% club get it right again

I'm still waiting for them to get it right first time?
Remind me when the average house price has seen a 70% drop.

The_White_Horse

70% club - hahahahahahahaaaaa

so you are saying that i could buy a house that was 300k in 2007 for 90k? HHAHAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

that is funny.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm still waiting for them to get it right first time?
Remind me when the average house price has seen a 70% drop.

Those terraced houses in [insert name of Northern Hell Hole] that used to sell for a few hundred quid must have fallen in price by way more than 70% I reckon.

Tokyo house prices are (I think) down 80% from their peak.