5 (2nd leg of the crash is here)

macaque_2

The House price crashometer finally hit 5 today. The 70% team have concluded that the second leg of the house price crash has arrived.

For the past few months, the papers have been full of stories about rising house prices. This however has more to do with price inflammation than price growth. Normal home buyers were priced out of property years ago and since then the field has been left to BTL's (with more leverage than brain cells). Within the past two months however, lenders finally realised that the credit rating of your average BTL is about as safe as a wine glass balanced on a pile of Jenga bricks.

http://www.housefund.co.uk/2010/02/22/buy-to-let-remortgaging-activity-declines/

Figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) support the evidence from FACT. According to the CML, the number of buy-to-let gross advances fell by 72% from 83,400 in the final quarter of 2007 to 23,700 in the third quarter of 2009, with the value of those gross advances falling from £11.3bn to £2.1bn, an 81% decrease.

The Right Honourable Simian Macaque ADHD

tommy75

5.. whooo.. this is it... TIMBER..












thats 5 out of 5 right? Not 5 out of 15 or 5 out of 20.. whats the scale here? gotta be 5 out of 5, I've waited soooo long... gonna ring up the estate agent tommorrow and back out of my purchase and rejoice... whoooo...

Pete111

In other news, the HPC 'Wishfulthinkingometer' has just exploded.

macaque_2

As predicted on Monday:

House prices fall 1.0 percent in Feb - Nationwide

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE61P19420100226?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=401

chucky

macaque wrote: »

As predicted on Monday:



http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE61P19420100226?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=401

nice one - do you reckon it will slip down to 4 again next month?

Pete111

House prices slip in the depths of winter shock. What surprise announcements will be next I wonder?

'Footballers massively overpaid!!'
'MP's slimy and self-serving!!'
'Britain quite a rainy sort of a place!!'

The real surprise here is that it took nearly a year for the 2009 'spring bounce' to run out of steam. Ah well. If only spring 2010 was just around the corner.

....Oh look!!

markharding557

I think it is a little early to talk of crashes,let you know in a couple of months

macaque_2

markharding557 wrote: »

I think it is a little early to talk of crashes,let you know in a couple of months

No! The crash is here. Even Hamish has been uncharacteristically subdued over the past few days.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=383849&re=8591&ea=174368

Simian Macaque ADHD
President and CEO of the 70% club

SingleSue

We're still waiting the spring bounce of 2009, let alone 2010!

*We, as in my area of course...but then we were the worse performing area in the whole of the UK according to a report about a month ago. We ended up down YOY when most places saw a positive. Mind you, our peak was also different (April 2008), when others were dropping, we were still rising!

markharding557

macaque wrote: »

No! The crash is here. Even Hamish has been uncharacteristically subdued over the past few days.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=383849&re=8591&ea=174368

Simian Macaque ADHD
President and CEO of the 70% club

I think there is a high probability that the market is in for a long period of slow growth or even stagnation but i still can't see any huge crash

macaque_2

markharding557 wrote: »

I think there is a high probability that the market is in for a long period of slow growth or even stagnation but i still can't see any huge crash

I should send you a bill for this post. I sprayed a mouthful of coffee over my computer when I read it.