Experts... Price to fall in 2011

StevieJ

bigheadxx wrote: »

The real danger for interest rates is beyond 5 years where the consequences of QE may become evident and the UK will be seeking to control rising inflation in the years beyond that. I.

So you think we will all be getting nice chunky pay increases in the not so distant future :j

Conrad

If prices fall some into 2011, who cares? All background noise against the longer term likely outcomes.

20 years from now bears, you will regret delaying - any momentary crests and troughs will be utterly meaningless.

Dirk_Rambo

wow, prices are crashing in 2010 already, if they fall even more in 2011 theyll all be as cheap as chips

IveSeenTheLight

bigheadxx wrote: »

Its now more likely that rates will remain at their current level until into the new year

Didn't some people think this would happen 2009 into 2010?
I guess they have to move to a new horizon since the election and emergency budget have passed.

Harry_Powell

bigheadxx wrote: »

For a hedged peace of mind bet I would personally be going for a 10 year plus fix sometime during the course of 2011.

Coventry BS are doing a 10 yr fix at 5.2%. It seems they don't share your pessimism for rising interest rates over the next few years. We can argue until the cows come home about rates, but the best way to determine where they're going is to look at long term rates offered by banks/BS. They're no mugs, and pay experts a lot of money to do just this.

bigheadxx

StevieJ wrote: »

So you think we will all be getting nice chunky pay increases in the not so distant future :j

Inflation doesn't mean that you get a pay rise, ask any public sector worker who won't be seeing a rise until 2013. Many have already had a 1 year freeze so in real terms you would be looking at upto a 15% pay cut.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bigheadxx wrote: »

Inflation doesn't mean that you get a pay rise, ask any public sector worker who won't be seeing a rise until 2013. Many have already had a 1 year freeze so in real terms you would be looking at upto a 15% pay cut.

:rotfl:

Oh dear.......

ILW

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Coventry BS are doing a 10 yr fix at 5.2%. It seems they don't share your pessimism for rising interest rates over the next few years. We can argue until the cows come home about rates, but the best way to determine where they're going is to look at long term rates offered by banks/BS. They're no mugs, and pay experts a lot of money to do just this.

Is that the same banks that were offering lifetime trackers at base plus .25% or even base minus a few years ago. I know someone who is paying less than £400pm on a £450k mortgage.

chucknorris

bigheadxx wrote: »

Inflation doesn't mean that you get a pay rise, ask any public sector worker who won't be seeing a rise until 2013. Many have already had a 1 year freeze so in real terms you would be looking at upto a 15% pay cut.

I agree round Myway high inflation means everything goes up in price except wages and house prices of course, they fall off a cliff

bigheadxx

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Coventry BS are doing a 10 yr fix at 5.2%. It seems they don't share your pessimism for rising interest rates over the next few years. We can argue until the cows come home about rates, but the best way to determine where they're going is to look at long term rates offered by banks/BS. They're no mugs, and pay experts a lot of money to do just this.

I don't agree with that at all. We are still in unchartered territory.
The "experts" would never have predicted 0.5% interest rates in a million years and it is certainly not what anybody was expecting in 2006, 2007 or even 2008.

They may not be mugs but they are not always right. SVR % at 1 or 2%, some people are paying literally 0% interest. If they had seen that coming they would not have not have let it happen.

My "pessimism" is not the next few years but in about five years when interest rates could reach highs not seen since the 1990's.

As I said a ten year+ fix sometime next year.