Experts... Price to fall in 2011

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

What a lovely thread. I particularly like phrases like:

"a second leg of the house price correction soon.".

Interesting they also say
“Prices will close 2010 below their end 2009 level and we expect them to continue falling in 2011.”
(no need to bold or put in larger font size

This means there needs to be a 2.3% reduction over the rest of the year.



Also interesting that they say
"buyers are taking advantage of lower prices with the number of properties sold up 20 per cent to 63,500 in June, from almost 53,000 the previous month. "

So house transaction levels are now increasing again. what is the likely impact on house prices.
If we do see a sustained reduction in house prices, will would be sellers take their properties off the market as they did previously?

carolt

Thnks for all the lovely quotes ISTL.

carolt

Such a lovely thread.

Harry_Powell

carolt wrote: »

Such a lovely thread.

So you keep saying. What's wrong carolt, is no one taking you up on your offer of an argument? Not getting enough at home [attention]?

IveSeenTheLight

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

What's interesting about this graph is the trend, if one goes up the other goes down, which basically means there is not enough money to support transactions at high levels and high prices. It would be interesting what the figures would be if the 'unsustainable money' is taken out, i.e cash purchases and bank of mum & dad money.

The time frame is important as well.

I simply choose from Dec 09 as the linked article related that prices would be below the end of 2009.

To make an assumption on 4 months sales volumes and extrapolate is not looking at the full picture

Here's the same graph on a longer timeframe.

Can you make the same extrapolation of the sales volumes to house prices there?

carolt

Harry_Powell wrote: »

So you keep saying. What's wrong carolt, is no one taking you up on your offer of an argument? Not getting enough at home [attention]?

Hello Obsessed Man.

Did you not see my dare? I bet you that you couldn't manage even 1 day without posting some silly little sexualised attack.

I won. You couldn't even last 1 HOUR.

You are one really, really sad case.

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The time frame is important as well.

I simply choose from Dec 09 as the linked article related that prices would be below the end of 2009.

To make an assumption on 4 months sales volumes and extrapolate is not looking at the full picture

Here's the same graph on a longer timeframe.

Can you make the same extrapolation of the sales volumes to house prices there?

Bumped as Chaos A.D. is online and I'm interested in his analysis

LittleMissAspie

Harry_Powell wrote: »

isn't "long-held" and "soon" an oxymoron?

No it just means they've been wrong for a long time.

IveSeenTheLight

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

Its and interesting graph as sort of proves my analysis

What?
I don't see how your analysis correlated to the graph at all

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

transactions are lower when prices are high

what about between 96 and 07?
Prices seem to be consistantly rising while the transaction levels jump about like a teenage boys heartbeat when he see's a bitof cleavage.
Hmmmmm, when your looking at this graph are your eye's like this

purch

Does anyone remember 2008 & 2009

No.

I'm struggling to remember this morning :eek: