House prices fall 0.6% in June Halifax

chucknorris

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

Been saying something similar for a while now. The economic problems/recession we are experiencing can not be compared to the 90's, the issues we have regarding energy and the fallout from the banking crisis will make this a whole lot different. House prices without doubt have been supported by 0.5% base rate and banks very reluctant to repossess.

Can these policies be sustained ? I personally don't think so, certainly over the period of time it takes to pay off the average mortgage.

Yet it's very diificult to see how interest rates can rise whilst the economy still struggles, so it's likely that the boe base rate will remain low until there are signs of recovery, which is beginning to look like quite a long time.

chucknorris

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

I honestly believe that it's highly unlikely that we will ever see a period like 1997-2007 again, debt and energy concerns will see to that. The servicing of the debt alone is only just being made with record low rates.

It depends on your age whether one sees booms (and busts) in their lifetime but I have no doubt in the future there will be both booms and busts. I'm 52 and expect to see both at least once maybe tiwce

Generali

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

Been saying something similar for a while now. The economic problems/recession we are experiencing can not be compared to the 90's, the issues we have regarding energy and the fallout from the banking crisis will make this a whole lot different. House prices without doubt have been supported by 0.5% base rate and banks very reluctant to repossess.

Can these policies be sustained ? I personally don't think so, certainly over the period of time it takes to pay off the average mortgage.

There isn't really another period of history you can compare now to, economically speaking IMO.

You could compare to the 1870s and the long recession that followed a banking crisis but then you had the Gold Standard preventing Quantitative Easing, little welfare state, a huge and costly Empire to run and a tiny state sector.

1930s are a poor comparison from similar reasnos.

Japan 1990- seems seductive but you have a huge external surplus there, a much bigger housing boom and structural problems like using shares as reserves =. zombie banks.

chucknorris wrote: »

Yet it's very diificult to see how interest rates can rise whilst the economy still struggles, so it's likely that the boe base rate will remain low until there are signs of recovery, which is beginning to look like quite a long time.

Re base rates, my fear is that one of 2 things will happen:

1. The economy will start to improve and interest rates rise. That will cause more debt defaults and knock the banking sector back on its Arsenal. Banks will stop lending and the whole thing grinds to a halt, interest rates are cut and we start over again.
2. A slow descent into deflation and a pretty nasty scenario of sovereign defaults and further deflation ensues.

chucky

phlash wrote: »

I would however like to thank chucknorris for his kind and favoured words, and extraordinary ability to miss the punt.

ahhh yes - everyone else miss the 'punt' expect you.... you're that kind of nutter then...

phlash wrote: »

Chucky was posting without any useful content, for which I was making reasonable suggestions to spark discussion.

do you mean like discussing your $exual fantasies involving pool balls and masks. yes - that is a reasonable suggestion to spark a discussion. maybe in your world not my mind....

neas

It will be stagnation followed by falls when cuts take place.

As i mentioned previously though, you'll still be stuffed buying a house as the interest rates won't be 'fixable' at 4% they will be fixable aty 6-7%.... meaning per month you still pay same even if you'd have bough beforehand. Thats problem.. how long will people wait for the crash? i waited 3 years, got a good deal bought house for little over its 2004 value... While house prices can drop down to 3.5x earnings... this house (after my deposit) was 3.5x my earnings... so i can afford it and can afford to relax while overpaying.

House prices aren't going to drop more than 30% just because people who aren't made unemployed, aren't made redundant wont sell. It was the same during the last crash... people who needed to sell before have or have been selling during this 'upturn' so people will hold out up to 2-3 years without selling the 'good' properties. All the repo's i saw were rubbish houses.

I could be wrong but holding out for 50% drops aint going to happen. i'd say we hit minor drops/stagnation that in actual terms (after taking into account high inflation) means houses come closer to the 3.5-4x multiple (due to wage inflation etc) over time.

chucknorris

neas wrote: »

It will be stagnation followed by falls when cuts take place.

As i mentioned previously though, you'll still be stuffed buying a house as the interest rates won't be 'fixable' at 4% they will be fixable aty 6-7%.... meaning per month you still pay same even if you'd have bough beforehand. Thats problem.. how long will people wait for the crash? i waited 3 years, got a good deal bought house for little over its 2004 value... While house prices can drop down to 3.5x earnings... this house (after my deposit) was 3.5x my earnings... so i can afford it and can afford to relax while overpaying.

House prices aren't going to drop more than 30% just because people who aren't made unemployed, aren't made redundant wont sell. It was the same during the last crash... people who needed to sell before have or have been selling during this 'upturn' so people will hold out up to 2-3 years without selling the 'good' properties. All the repo's i saw were rubbish houses.

I could be wrong but holding out for 50% drops aint going to happen. i'd say we hit minor drops/stagnation that in actual terms (after taking into account high inflation) means houses come closer to the 3.5-4x multiple (due to wage inflation etc) over time.

If you mean won't drop more than 30% from peak, I could accept that, but I can't see this high inflation that you refer to.

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

Re base rates, my fear is that one of 2 things will happen:

1. The economy will start to improve and interest rates rise. That will cause more debt defaults and knock the banking sector back on its Arsenal. Banks will stop lending and the whole thing grinds to a halt, interest rates are cut and we start over again.
2. A slow descent into deflation and a pretty nasty scenario of sovereign defaults and further deflation ensues.

Wow not much of a choice! In that case can I have 1) please?

Harry_Powell

carolt wrote: »

Just checked - interesting how chucky and chucknorris are never online at the same time, isn't it?

I am not the betting type and I'm certainly not the doggie type, so no, no bet on. You don't need to prove/disprove anything to me or anyone else. It's just enough that your secret is out now.

I don't really trust mse to 'verify' such things anyway - as numerous sockpuppets on here have demonstrated, it's far too easy to fudge for anyone with half a mind to.

Classic carolt mentalism! She combines two random events and creates a scenario in her mind, then goes from idly mentioning it into creating an elaborate storyline into a frenzied oratory about how it all makes sense now. By the end of it she is all excited and sweaty and has to run off upstairs for some urgent vibe relief to calm her back down again - it's the carolt equivalent of prozac.

The other day she has herself convinced that I was a divorced father of three. She was so excited by that one that she fairly wore the vibe down to a nubbin and got through 5 sets of batteries! :rotfl:

So funny, so delusional, and as true as all the other story's that carolt comes up with (i.e. she is not buying because she was gazzumped, she's not buying because she was too savvy and saw the crash, she's not buying because of schools for her gifted daughter, she is a school teacher, she owns her own school, she works for an MP, she has just obtained a new part time job after being long-term unemployed....) the deranged stories go on and on.

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

Wow not much of a choice! In that case can I have 1) please?

To be fair, there is also a chance that the economy can just sort stagger back on to its feet and slowly trot off into the future. I have my doubts but I live in hope. Let's face it, if it all goes itis up then it's unlikely to be a helpful scenario for any of us.

chucky

Harry_Powell wrote: »

So funny, so delusional, and as true as all the other story's that carolt comes up with (i.e. she is not buying because she was gazzumped, she's not buying because she was too savvy and saw the crash, she's not buying because of schools for her gifted daughter, she is a school teacher, she owns her own school, she works for an MP, she has just obtained a new part time job after being long-term unemployed....) the deranged stories go on and on.

incredibly deluded