Xcite Energy Ltd (XEL)

oliversw

I don't believe it matters if it is justified,The price might be fair value, but it is all about perception. Not everyone can value a company. Thats why my gut feeling says it will go lower. Time shall tell...

Shatners_Bassoon

I'm still in althought I sold half of my holding at 380p and went into RRL ahead of their massive drilling campaign.

AGM is soon so XEL BOD will get a good beating from many a PI and forced to make a statement re SP and explain the RR which was way understood by many a uninformed PI who do not understand that the RR was referring to the Core values and not the entire Bentley field.

Anyway looking back on this thread I tipped the following back in November and let's see how they compare now?


RRL - As I posted months back RRL have a great Director in Landau and are already in production in Texas and have recently completed 3d in Georgia and identified lots of prospects. RPS CPR (competent Persons report) has estimated 2Bn bbls of recoverable (6bn gross) from these prospects. This is a strong hold and I would buy up to 7.5p.

NOW 17.5p (hit 23p high)

BPC - Again seismics have been completed in the Bahamas and billions of barrels have been identified, this took a wild dip a couple of months ago when the Bahamian goverment talked about revoking the licenses but it bounced back on news of seismics, again a buy at the current prices. was 7p now 17p!!!!!

DPL, In my opinion this is the next GKP, a new oil province is opening up in Tanzania and this one is now on the radar, a fast track RNS is due imminently and this will add more fuel to the fire. A strong buy at 5p! Now 6P but alot of news is due and it's still a strong buy

BMR - I think if you look at what I have posted on here you will know that this is way way undervalued and it is due a rerating soon. Acquisition of new tailing dumps in Kabwe is coming soon and it will return 30% short term on that news alone.

This one has been going on too long but news is due anyday now on the Kabwe acquision which has been 99.9% signed off.

SXX - The only Potash mining company on the LSE and what a powerhouse they are! Drilling in North Dakota has started with Schlumberger as their partner and once we get the drilling results this could go haywire, remember the world needs fertilizer for crops and as demand grows from the likes of China, Sirius will have a massive market, plus the recent acquisition of more licenses in Australia means export to Asia is far more accessible.

Strong Buy now that SXX have bought Yorkshire Potash, was 8p and now double that with a high of 21p.

darkpool

£1.69 a share now.

sabretoothtigger

If it cant hold this level of its 2010 Autumn breakout then it should in theory reverse all the way to 110 which is the highs of Sept prior to any perceived good news at that time.

I was not following it really in Sept, can people say if that perception then has now been proved false or does it still stand.

How much more money does this company need before they turn a profit end of 2012 I presume

flashnazia

Could someone kindly and briefly bring me up to speed? Why is the price dropping?

sabretoothtigger

More people are selling then buying, simple as that.


Deflated expectations and generally the dollar is rising now which means cash is king and people who buy shares on margin are selling them. Unless a share is very strong that will snowball into a sell off as even people who dont have to sell do it anyway to go spend their profits


The holders of non producing oil explorers are rarely long term investors. It makes the price very flaky

VitcH_3

I think it's down to a couple of things.

In hindsight, a drop was bound to come, but at 60% off what we were at only a few weeks - this is way oversold and has been played perfectly by the market makers.
We are at a huge discount to NAV.

Anyway:

The RAR that came out was, I believe, misjudged in that it confirmed reserves for part of the Bentley field rather than the whole of it, which it would seem was what the market was expecting.

Second, the SP appears to have been ramped quite a bit prior to the RNS.

Then we have the general negative sentiment across worldwide markets and oilies in particular (not to mention that this is AIM!)

Also, we aren't due any further updates in the near future which means the SP will continue to slip/rise as seen fit by MMs.

Then there are worries about raising capital for DECC approval; fears about share dilution if we go down the new equity route (though in my humble opinion this is unlikely) as opposed to debt finance.

From a personal perspective, I'm looking to get back in again as I believe the business is rock solid and can only go one way long-term. Almost put in a buy order last week for 175p but luckily had a few problems with my ISA.
However, after today, I'm going to continue sidding on the sidelines to see where the bottom is - impossible to say right now.

I've only just realised that we have a whole thread dedicated to Xcite here on MSE today - I normally follow other forums.
And there's a few posters who say we could even go as low as £1.
For me, it's a bargain at this price already and anything extra is a bonus (without intending to de-ramp this).

As always, the above is just my opinion and you should always do your own research before committing yourself.
Good luck!

blinko

i took a 20% hit on this !!!!!, wiping out ALL of last years gains, although it clearly could've been worse considering its 170 price now. Its a shame I bnelieve in there dream and I do think they will get there its going to be a tough one it certainly seems to ahve bottomed at 170,

at the moment the market is in a down trend so nearly all stocks are being gently driven down

especially the oilers GKP - whats going on with Kozel is he running that compay into the ground or what 10m pay cheque - the BP boss for 2m,

encore ticking down

at the moment its a sit on the sidelines and day trade, i camn ususally scalpe 5 - 10 points per day, but its very tough out there at the moment

sabretoothtigger

The only point in my favour is I always scale into a position. If Im convinced they will do better in future I can still double or triple what I hold in XEL by selling off other less effected shares I hold.

Im still undecided how good their prospects are exactly, I do still think they are likely better cost to revenue then the falkland drillers

blinko

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The only point in my favour is I always scale into a position. If Im convinced they will do better in future I can still double or triple what I hold in XEL by selling off other less effected shares I hold.

Im still undecided how good their prospects are exactly, I do still think they are likely better cost to revenue then the falkland drillers

well i certainly think they will get the oil out of the ground but the market is not pleased with them and thats generally what matters

although on a good note, when they do release good news they do spike up, unlike GKP and encore

the markets are tough at the moment very few stocks moving upwards sideliness seem to be better and no doubt when QE2 ends tehy will be pushing down the prices again
totally manipulated if you ask me, the only way to win is to try and figure out which stocks they will manipulate and play along with teh bullies