Premium Bonds - Are my Bonds being missed in the draw?

donamey

Some years ago my bonds (£15000 holding with winnings automatically re-invested) suddenly stopped winning for about 8 months. This was after winning on average once or twice a month up to then. It co-incided with the fact that I had just cashed a few bonds. I phoned them and got a very patronising answer so I decided to write a dumb letter asking if they had forgotten my bonds. I got a pat on the head and some more platitudes but strangely the bonds immediately started winning again. Of course random means random - BUT!!! The reason for posting this is that my wife and I have equal bonds (about £20000 each) and hers have stopped winning - now up to 9 months without success, whereas mine are continuing to win - roughly on average for the holding. Again this occurred just after cashing some bonds. I wonder if there is some computer glitch which marks bonds as non eligible to win when you cash them and maybe they have spread this mark over all the bonds by mistake. Of course its random etc. but didn't I read somewhere that your chances of winning a prize seem to be greater in the early stages of your holding and then decline - could this be due to the above reason??

loobs40

I only had about £5000 worth of bonds, but I can't remember the last time I won, back in 2001 I think !

I got fed up this month and have cashed most of them in, and am putting them in a mini ISA.

Aletank

My Mums had £5's worth for 31 years ans never won anything!! ha ha

Reaper

There has always been speculation on how random the Premium Bonds are. For example there is a common view that older numbers are less likely to win than newer numbers. However whenever these claims are investigated closer they turn out to be false.

They go to great lengths to make sure the numbers selected are truely random. There would be nothing to gain and everything to lose if they started tampering with the odds depending on whether you had cashed any in or not, even if they could get it past the auditors.

Random numbers means there will be periods when you get above average and periods when you get nothing. If you want a steady stream of guarenteed winnings then you should put the money in a building society account!

PS I've had a £1 premium bond since birth. Still hoping for my first win!

panther

I won a £50 prize within the 1st draw after buying my bonds (and then the odd £50 every couple of years thereafter). In fact, everyone I know has also won a prize within a short time of first buying bonds. I realise that it must be coincidence but it does make you wonder.

donamey

Your comment sounds very NSI - i.e. I already said I knew that random meant random - but being a computer person I know that however unlikely it is just possible that when you cash in part of your bond holdings they inadvertently chop the rest of the bonds from being eligible. I believe they actually generate random numbers and then check existing bonds for winners - as opposed to only drawing winning numbers from bonds in play. So they generate huge numbers and match with eligible existing bonds - so if mine are ticked as ineligible they won't win. Naturally it won't actually prove anything if I write to them and then afterwards start winning BUT.......

Pieman1972

Apparently in today's draw there is a holder who holds £5.00 worth has scooped £10K.......(not me )

stuartw101

ive had £300 of bonds for about 2+ years and i havent won anything.

Fatboy_NSS

I'd say it's worth dropping a line to NS&I asking them to confirm that the bonds are still being entered for the draws and that they've got the correct address on file. It's possible that one of your bonds could have won but been misdelivered and returned, so they would have put a "Gone away" indicator on your account.

The most likely explanation is just that you've been unlucky for a few months, but its got to be worth a 21p stamp to make sure!

isasmurf

You haven't mentioned the South East bias yet!

NS&I dispell all your allegations ERNIE myths

Of course there is no such thing as a true random number. All 'Random numbers' produced by a computer must be produced by a computer program involving some kind of algorithm and are therefore psuedo random numbers. A computer cannot just come up with different numbers all by itself. And a human cannot produce random numbers, because something will encourage our brains to come up with whatever numbers we come up with! We just do not know how the human brain works.

And the lesson ends herewith!

Fatboy_NSS

I'm sure I remember reading in an insert with a prize that Ernie isn't actually a computer. It is simply a machine generating random numbers, which are then fed into a computer to send out the winnings.