House market crash!

Gorgeous_George

My BTL sums ignored possible price rises and continue to ignore possible price falls. My BTL cost me £28K and some considerable work. It returns over £4K per year in rent out of which i need to take any costs. It's still quite a nice return but not enough to set my world alight.

House prices are a function of many factors but two are more influential than the others.

Obviously, the cost of borrowing is high on the list. I do not envisage interest rates rising sufficiently to make a huge difference.

Also high on the list is demand for housing. Increases in population are likekly to continue for a while. In oprder to maintain pensions the Governmemt need to encourage/allow immigrants to come into this country (I think its the economics opf the mad house but that's another thread). If we have a natural drop in populatiuon, the Government will attract more people to live and work in Britain. There will remain a steady demand for housing and I do not see sufficient new houses being built to deter this demand.

I certainly expect a fall but it is not guaranteed.



GG

ianandjody

HI all,

Sorry not a regular poster so probably having nothing valuable to contirbute to this thread;-) however..

I bought at the end of 2003, which was the earliest i could afford to and yes we have been lucky in that prices have gone up, slightly.

But one thing i do remember when i was younger (only 26 now) was that when the big crash happened my old man was alos made redundant at the same time (worked in the city) we were lucky in that me mum earnt enough to supprt us and they sold at a huge losss the second flat in london and just kep the home in hampshire to live in.

What i am trying to say in a round about way is that it is all well and good waiting for house prices to drop but are you sure if and when we enter that period that your job is safe enough to ensure you are able to buy a home then still?! It is all well and good saving and saying i have a massive deposit but if you get made redundant at the same time.....

I am more than happy with our decision and i would do it again even now, when i could afford to buy i did, and that was looking at the afforedability of renting to mortgage, and following my folks lessons and ideals in buying the worse house in the nicest area

My random and waffly $2 worth even though im not sure what i was trying to say!?

Oh yeah top guessing and do what makes you happiest and don't let scarmongers or dreamers sway you either way

Xbigman

I predicted a house price crash two years and the question for me is, why hasn't it crashed yet?
Banks willing to lend more and more money (have you seen the new deathbed mortgages), more people than houses, low interest rates (even a full 1% rise will only get back to average rates) and market stoking by EA's.
I think the market will still crash but I can see it going 25% higher over the next two years first.

This is all just my personal opinion.

Its also wishfull thinking. A price crash would allow me to buy a better property or get into BTL's at the bottom of the market. Hurry the day.
Regards



X

meanmachine_2

Anyone expecting the government to "stop a crash", needs to think hard on that one.

Politicians have a habit of making things worse, not better.

Back in 1997, Brown promised no boom in house prices. He promised that because we'd just suffered a huge crash and people wanted to hear "never again".

Well he didn't deliver on that promise, as we've had a super mega whopper boom.

Just beware if he starts promising no more property crashes....

mystic_trev

Yep - No more boom and bust. We've had the boom......now remind me - what comes next?

jamminjamaica

it will not happen


touch wood..........

manhattan

jamminjamaica wrote:

it will not happen


touch wood..........

lol

make sure you carry a piece at all times!

mystic_trev

If it (crash) happens it'll make "Tulipmania" look like a walk in the park.

ollyshaw

icklejulez wrote:

I also feel that enough lessons were learnt last time round and I dont think the government would allow the effect this time round to be anywhere near as bad.

I cant believe you have this much faith in the government!

Olly

cuffie

Oh crikey - lets live for today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow.... xx