Get ready for the storm

RDB

You are right you can compare anything with anything.

I am just comparing house prices and gold with themselves not with each other.

My long term strategy is when gold is cheap buy gold when houses are cheap buy houses.

The other way to put it is when houses are overvalued sell houses and when gold is overvalued sell gold.

If anyone disagrees that these cycles happen and will continue to happen then please give your reasons.

Also if you disagree that house prices will be undervalued again in the future then please give your reasons also.

PS When I say gold I mean precious metals, I am I 90% silver 10% gold.

IveSeenTheLight

RDB wrote: »

Also if you disagree that house prices will be undervalued again in the future then please give your reasons also.

I question who / what determines whether a property is under / over or actual market value.
Ultimately, you cannot argue that the property is valued at the price it is sold at.
That is the price that someone is willing to pay for it.

It would appear that the increased demand to be property owners, combined with the disproportional increase in property would be the major factor of why house prices are not likely to drop much.

Of course each case is unique and there are always exceptions to the rules.

If you want the valuation of house to lower, you really have to alter the fundamentals affecting that.
You ultimately can either decrease the demand for property or increse the supply

RDB

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I question who / what determines whether a property is under / over or actual market value.
Ultimately, you cannot argue that the property is valued at the price it is sold at.
That is the price that someone is willing to pay for it.

It would appear that the increased demand to be property owners, combined with the disproportional increase in property would be the major factor of why house prices are not likely to drop much.

Of course each case is unique and there are always exceptions to the rules.

If you want the valuation of house to lower, you really have to alter the fundamentals affecting that.
You ultimately can either decrease the demand for property or increse the supply

Do you disagree that house prices always go from under to overvalued?

You cant disagree that this has happened throughout recent history.

But are you saying that these cycles wont continue for some reason?

Would love to know your reasons?

IveSeenTheLight

RDB wrote: »

Do you disagree that house prices always go from under to overvalued?

You cant disagree that this has happened throughout recent history.

But are you saying that these cycles wont continue for some reason?

Would love to know your reasons?

I think you may be confusing current market value and average long term trend

I agree, during a cycle that house prices go above and below the long term average trend.
This reflects the actual market value at that time.
These fluctuations average out, giving an indication that house prices seem to be above or below the long term valuation trend.

You cannot however argue that houses were of value at that current time of sale

The value of a property is the mutulally agreeable sale price

RDB

Ivseenthelight what you are saying is agreeing with me. I dont concern myself with a lot of mubo jombo, just the facts.

The facts are that houses prices do go from under to overvalued. The same with gold and silver.

IveSeenTheLight

RDB wrote: »

Ivseenthelight what you are saying is agreeing with me. I dont concern myself with a lot of mubo jombo, just the facts.

The facts are that houses prices do go from under to overvalued. The same with gold and silver.

I don't think we are saying the same thing.
Every single property that is sold is an agreed valuation between a buyer and a seller. It is neither under nor over valued. It is valued at the agreeable price.

What the averages do is show over a longer term whether they are cheaper or more expensive than the average, however this does not deflect from the fact that the house sold at that particular time is the mutually agreed value

RDB

So if you compare house prices in the 90s to how much higher they are now, you still think houses dont go from under to overvalued?

Im sorry but you just dont make sense.

If you study history and cycles you will see how easy it is to understand.

All asset classes move through an information channel going from under to overvalued.

The-mouth-of-the-south

get ready hamish and friends the great storm is about to come. We are going to see a number of factors come into play very soon which will make house prices drop right off the cliff.

Bring on the storm and the GREAT HOUSE PRICE CRASH

Snooze

The-mouth-of-the-south wrote: »

get ready hamish and friends the great storm is about to come. We are going to see a number of factors come into play very soon which will make house prices drop right off the cliff.

Bring on the storm and the GREAT HOUSE PRICE CRASH

What happened to the storm that was 100% guaranteed back in May? :shrug:

UnderPressure

The-mouth-of-the-south wrote: »

get ready hamish and friends the great storm is about to come. We are going to see a number of factors come into play very soon which will make house prices drop right off the cliff.

Bring on the storm and the GREAT HOUSE PRICE CRASH

For what it is worth I do actually agree with you but lets see shall we ............................