BP - off the hook ? ...and a BUY ?

sabretoothtigger

Jim cramer pointed out that if indicted on criminal charges then BP would be liable to forfeit federal leases they may have which would represent further value destruction I guess

Masomnia

StevieJ wrote: »

Looks like Iran could soon have an oil major to do their drilling :eek:

AMERICAN legislators are examining plans to “debar” BP from government contracts and oil exploration deals as punishment for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article7144839.ece

Then again maybe the US will use their brains for thinking with

Mmm that's the big long term concern.

My feeling is though that won't happen, and that this will just be a bit of noise from some senators flexing muscles.

1. The US is in no position to be negotiating contracts with a $trillion deficit, especially on a subject as sensitive as military funding.

2. They'd presumably need to prove some kind of guilt on the part of BP and I can't imagine that'll be possible given the other companies that are implicated, and in any case it'll be a long drawn out process which after all that effort probably wouldn't be worth the government bothering with. ie. by the time BP's guilt is proven everyone will have forgotten about it, so there's no reason for the government to go to the expense.

amcluesent

The Gulf Coast states all voted Republican, so Obama won't be too bothered as soon as the TV crews leave; can you imagine a person of colour getting upset at them good ol' boys taking a beating?

Politically impossible to just pay the full divi so expect some restructured payments that'll keep a lid on the share price. Once the CEO is ceremonially sacked, recovery to a fiver looks possible. Good sense that they're organising into a 'bad' BP and a 'good' BP.

If the price broke below £4 that would be strong buy, at 433 it's less clear.

worldtraveller

30th April, 2010
Shares are down 5.3p, or 0.91% at 579.1p

Michele della Vigna at Goldman Sachs said "....We believe this reaction is overdone and reiterate our Buy on BP."

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Alejandro Demichelis agrees. "....We maintain our Buy rating and 750p."

Citywire

6th May, 2010
"The brokers (JP Morgan Cazenove & Panmure Gordon) reckon BP’s shares are a ‘buy’. BP closed 6.5p higher at 565p yesterday...

.....I paid 451p per share in October, 2008, which you may recall was the last time many investors convinced themselves the world was coming to an end. BP remains quite a chunky holding by the standards of my self-invested personal pension (SIPP). I have often wished that I bought more. Now I will."

Telegraph.co.uk

7th May, 2010
Investment Column: BP shares sell-off is overdone so buy now

Our view: Buy

Share price: 567p (+2p)

The Independent

28th May, 2010
Oil analyst Jason Kenney of inG said: 'We have seen a good rally in the stock on the basis that the intervention seems to be working.

If we do get full confirmation that the well is dead, BP's share price could see a significant up-tick.' He said the shares were a buy anywhere below 600p.

thisismoney.co.uk

4th June, 2010
Share price: 433.35

:think:

fullstop

Watched The Andrew Marr show this morning , had BP boss Tony Hayward on, given an easy ride but not a confident showing.

Should be on BBC i Player

sabretoothtigger

BP's (BP) containment cap is now siphoning off more than 10,000 barrels of oil per day, but the Coas... http://seekingalpha.com/n/12mo


http://seekingalpha.com/article/208109-why-bp-should-pay-its-dividend-in-stock-rather-than-cut-it

StevieJ

Masomnia wrote: »

Mmm that's the big long term concern.

My feeling is though that won't happen, and that this will just be a bit of noise from some senators flexing muscles.

I think the previous name of BP was Anglo Iranian, maybe revert back

Old_Slaphead

StevieJ wrote: »

I think the previous name of BP was Anglo Iranian, maybe revert back

Maybe they should consider changing their name to US Oil (after all it is virtually an American company in terms of business, employment etc) which could then be changed to U soil when appropriate

Old_Slaphead

fullstop wrote: »

Watched The Andrew Marr show this morning , had BP boss Tony Hayward on, given an easy ride but not a confident showing.

Should be on BBC i Player

Not sure why BP appears to be the only one copping the flak on this.

There are plenty of others who should be taking a share of the blame (including US Government officials who clearly haven't ensured adequate controls in place to make sure this sort of thing wouldn't happen)

fullstop

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

Not sure why BP appears to be the only one copping the flak on this.

There are plenty of others who should be taking a share of the blame (including US Government officials who clearly haven't ensured adequate controls in place to make sure this sort of thing wouldn't happen)

This is what happens when you go down the de-regulation route. One of many of GWB many triumphs.