So much for the credit crunch

JamesU

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

Thats a myth. We had temporary low inflation. And now we are getting real negative returns. The massive deflation which they used as the justification for stupidly low interest rates never really happened. Brown has fudged the inflation figures by removing and adding goods from the basket to suit, and flitting between CPI and RPI to use in quotes and BOE targets. If you work out your actual real personal inflation figure you will see. When was the last time we have had inflation 6 times the base rate? I don't think even the last Labour government achieved that.

I really do not want to sidetrack on inflation on this thread (thorough detail on the index linked certificates thread with all the maths that goes with it).

HOWEVER, for sure, in September 2008 the RPI was 218.4 and % RPI inflation was 5%. Deflation for practically all of 2009, and the RPI is now finally back to about the same level as Sept 2008 at 219.2 and % RPI is 3.7% (this deceptive figure is purely down to comparison with deflation 12 mths ago). So what real inflation???? It is all nonsensical. The deflationary period was unprecedented and the % RPI figures we see this year are just a mathematical illusion resulting from last year's unprecedented deflation. If RPI rises a single point (normally month on month it would rise a point or two), next month’s % RPI will be 4.2% before an election. If it rises two points %RPI = 4.7%.

Any bets as to whether or not the RPI basket figures will be massaged to prevent these headline figures before an election?

JamesU

JamesU

Everybody gone to sleep now. Guess I should have listened and kept quiet.

JamesU

RayWolfe

JamesU wrote: »

Any bets as to whether or not the RPI basket figures will be massaged to prevent these headline figures before an election?
JamesU

You're being deliberately provocative James.
I am not a supporter of the present government and I'm a bit old in the tooth to be totally naive, however ... I think you are inflicting a gross calumny upon the Office for National Statistics.
They are professionals trying to do an incredibly difficult job in a fast changing society. Baskets of purchases are not controlled by finance ministers. Government did change from RPI to CPI but this was so that we would be in line with other countries. D'you know, I can remember governments of other colours changing the measure too.
As we have seen many times, inflation varies for everyone because none of us do the same thing. My wife has a passion for cider, I can't stand it and prefer wine. So whose RPI is going up in our household ... well mine actually, 'cause I drink far more than she does.
Cheers!

JamesU

RayWolfe wrote: »

You're being deliberately provocative James.
I am not a supporter of the present government and I'm a bit old in the tooth to be totally naive, however ... I think you are inflicting a gross calumny upon the Office for National Statistics.
They are professionals trying to do an incredibly difficult job in a fast changing society. Baskets of purchases are not controlled by finance ministers. Government did change from RPI to CPI but this was so that we would be in line with other countries. D'you know, I can remember governments of other colours changing the measure too.
As we have seen many times, inflation varies for everyone because none of us do the same thing. My wife has a passion for cider, I can't stand it and prefer wine. So whose RPI is going up in our household ... well mine actually, 'cause I drink far more than she does.
Cheers!

Provocative on a nice Saturday afternoon? Never, just need a little counselling for my views on inflation that's all. Do pass on my sympathies to your wife by the way, cidergate was a shock to many this week. What about perry? Just as nice as cider but no tax increase? Just a thought. More seriously, surely this is deliberate fruitist discrimination by the government? For sure the government does not know its apples from it pears, but do they need to make it so blatantly obvious just before an election? And how can all this be justified? I am not happy to support a government that is so erratically discriminative.

And what's a calumny?

JamesU

opinions4u

For sure the government does not know its apples from it pears, but do they need to make it so blatantly obvious just before an election? And how can all this be justified? I am not happy to support a government that is so erratically discriminative.

Ask yourself how many marginal Labour seats there are in the South West of England. Ask yourself where cider is drunk a little more than the rest of the nation.

Not that I would for a second suggest that a Chancellor would put his party's election prospects ahead of the nation's financial health.

Sanzai

JamesU wrote: »

Provocative on a nice Saturday afternoon? Never, just need a little counselling for my views on inflation that's all. Do pass on my sympathies to your wife by the way, cidergate was a shock to many this week. What about perry? Just as nice as cider but no tax increase? Just a thought. More seriously, surely this is deliberate fruitist discrimination by the government? For sure the government does not know its apples from it pears, but do they need to make it so blatantly obvious just before an election? And how can all this be justified? I am not happy to support a government that is so erratically discriminative.

And what's a calumny?

JamesU

Looked up because I didn't know either....
1. A false accusation of an offence or a malicious misrepresentation of someone's words or actions
2. An abusive attack on a person's character or good name

I note that the second definition presumes that the person has a 'good name' to abuse....

JamesU

Sanzai wrote: »

Looked up because I didn't know either....
1. A false accusation of an offence or a malicious misrepresentation of someone's words or actions
2. An abusive attack on a person's character or good name

I note that the second definition presumes that the person has a 'good name' to abuse....

Thanks Sanzai.

In that case for sure I do indeed calumniate both the Office for National Statisitics and the Post Office until such time as they are able to disseminate basic information to the population at large in an understandable manner.

Anyway, I am off to sort out a post-election pension. If index linked gilts do not tank, I guess pear options may be more appropriate.

JamesU

Sanzai

JamesU wrote: »

Thanks Sanzai.

In that case for sure I do indeed calumnify both the Office for National Statisitics and the Post Office until such time as they are able to disseminate basic information to the population at large in an understandable manner.

Anyway, I am off to sort out a post-election pension. If index linked gilts do not tank, I guess pear options may be more appropriate.

JamesU

'Calumniate'...apparently

JamesU

Sanzai wrote: »

'Calumniate'...apparently

Stand corrected and have corrected it. Still like calumnify though, has more of a persecuting tone to it, whereas calumniate sounds a bit more submissive....in any case the offending OP isn't around to comment on this, probablly popped out to buy some perry.

JamesU

RayWolfe

Couldn't make further comment yesterday. Too drunk!
Well, it was after five on a Saturday ....