Another crash ???????

StevieJ

Well I am relatively heavily weighted in EM and Asia, If our living standards drop because of those markets then hopefully that will compensate a little. I am, however, a believer in the cake cake getting bigger rather than the same cake shared by ever more mouths, an optimist I suppose

GH

More voodoo: http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/investors-beware-the-hindenburg-omen-has-reappeared/a421985?re=10633&ea=27768

sabretoothtigger

That Hindenburg thing seems to be describing distribution or inaccuracy in prices and most significant I think was the part of new highs with money flowing out of the market


I was just listening to a trader talking about how all the signs were negative. He isnt one for idle talk and simply was saying moving average prices flattening /declining makes caution more advisable.
I took his advice in march 09 and he was correct

Also gilts yields dropping with a rising market can be a warning and so on.


The conclusion of this chart is about FTSE 4600 or about a 1yr reset. 4521 is about my target though I would be surprised all the same: http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/5945/largeq2cnw8l.png


Distribution then consolidation can mean a correction or it can occur through time that we go sideways on average and prices adjust gradually, that'd be less exciting

lvader

Well it certainly looks like the summer earnings rebound is over, I'm not convinced there will be a big correction but I expect prices to drift downwards for a while. I'm still quite bullish beyond 2010, I think the slow down in places like China is a very good thing. Most major economies will see a bit of a slowdown but no double dip or depression. Eventually the current fears will go away and there will be a push away from government bonds pushing up stock and commodity prices.

sabretoothtigger

Yea I agree, a decline in bond prices and probably their currencies (currency notes are a type of short term loan to BOE) is the reason stocks will do ok comparatively. Any change in Japan is going to be generational to alter the world in ways I cant estimate.

With 200% gdp debt but at the same time 1 trillion lent to usa I think its not just an academic debate, people will feel that and I see a chain reaction of some type occurring similar to 2008

Right now Yen is worth more dollars then any time in the last 15 years so this is a government which has the means to pay off some of their debt and with a retiring dwindling working population they also have a need to do so

It hasnt happened yet though so down is definitely possible and change usually means upset?