MSE News: Nationwide: House prices creep up 0.7% in March

System

DaddyBear wrote: »

Yeah, keep hoping and dreaming lad. Down down and down for YOY from here.

Are you just going to keep predicting this every month forever? Getting a bit "stuck record" now

DaddyBear

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Are you just going to keep predicting this every month forever? Getting a bit "stuck record" now

First time I've made a prediction on the YOY figure, and it's a pretty safe bet.

IveSeenTheLight

DaddyBear wrote: »

First time I've made a prediction on the YOY figure, and it's a pretty safe bet.

I recommend you dont become a gamboling man.
With monthly fluctuations, how can anyone seriously say it will be continually down?
You should put a caveat in to your prediction.

smamst

I see the Bulls are out in force pre-election. Expect a couple more months of this then wallop.

JonnyBravo

Percy1983 wrote: »

As I keep saying I don't wish to buy a house and for it to lose value, but prices should increase with inflation, not the artificial BTL'ers buying everything cheap to steal from the poor contricting supply increases.

Do BTLers get a different price to the "expensive housing" currently available?
Either it's cheap for all or expensive for all. Make your mind up.

IveSeenTheLight

smamst wrote: »

I see the Bulls are out in force pre-election. Expect a couple more months of this then wallop.

I don't see the benefit of labelling people into stereotypical groups.
If you do wish to label them, possibly "realists" is better than "bulls".

Many "bulls" on here had mentioned the requirement and expected house price drops when prices were at peak and over the winter months.

They do however "realise" that there has been a correction to house prices and they are very near the long term trend average.

It has nothing to do with pre-election. Many "bulls" have been here for a long time and throughout the time when house prices were dropping

jim83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I don't see the benefit of labelling people into stereotypical groups.
If you do wish to label them, possibly "realists" is better than "bulls".

Many "bulls" on here had mentioned the requirement and expected house price drops when prices were at peak and over the winter months.

They do however "realise" that there has been a correction to house prices and they are very near the long term trend average.

It has nothing to do with pre-election. Many "bulls" have been here for a long time and throughout the time when house prices were dropping

That's not an average, that's the exponential trend line in real terms increases put in by Nationwide. It's a mathematical certainty that prices will permanently fall below this line at some point... If anyone can be accused of not being "realists", it's those that think that the line can be followed.

System

DaddyBear wrote: »

First time I've made a prediction on the YOY figure, and it's a pretty safe bet.

Actually it isn't, down and down YoY from here is impossible.

ruggedtoast

Cleaver wrote: »

I've completely, utterly, properly stopped caring in any way, shape or form. I haven't read the thread - is it full of Hamish celebrating, people saying that this is noise, 'bears' saying that this isn't a real spring bounce, Hamish saying it is, someone saying it's stagnation, a few emoticons as usual?

It's the same every month and you get the feeling that it will be like this on here until the very end of time. Ah well.

I havent read much of it either but the bits I did read do seem to correlate with your assumption.

Well I'll raise you a prediction. 5 more pages of the same, with a few abuse reports from Nutrisse thrown in.

IveSeenTheLight

jim83 wrote: »

That's not an average, that's the exponential trend line in real terms increases put in by Nationwide. It's a mathematical certainty that prices will permanently fall below this line at some point... If anyone can be accused of not being "realists", it's those that think that the line can be followed.

It is an average and your right it is expnential. YoY inflation is compounded resulting in an exponential trend line.
To explain, if you have £100 in the bank at 5% interest (inflation) then after year one you gain £5.
the second year you gain £5.25
The third you gain £5.51 and so on.

Trend that gains and you get an exponential line.

You are right that it is not reality to follow the average trend line, but surely you understand that this is a very good indicator of where prices should be.

If you subscribe to the prices falling below the line (thats what makes it an average, although certainly not permanently as you describe) then you are subscribing to a bust period.

Where there's a bust theres a boom and you therefore wish there to be a boom and bust cycle. This is obviously and demonstrably verified historicaly as the realistic outcome.
Following the trend line would however be ideal for stability and a move away from boom times