Why are the Bulls here buying this 0.1% recovery

abaxas

Harry_Powell wrote: »

But as I showed in a different thread, back in 2008 when prices were falling, you were more than happy to take the Haliwide figures as gospel. Why are only negative figures accurate?

I'm not.... the one thing this forum does is educate.

Isnt that the most important thing here?

Harry_Powell

abaxas wrote: »

I'm not.... the one thing this forum does is educate.

Isnt that the most important thing here?

I agree that this forum educates, I can't tell you how much I have learnt from lurking on the pensions and investment boards and looking into credit card stoozing and gambling loopholes. I'm not so sure how this particular board educates though? Especially this sort of thread that seems designed just to cause an argument?

andykn

digipeep wrote: »

OK there are only two real bulls here, and a couple of understudies but surely all these fictitious positive noises that we have had for the last nine months register with them and that it is only the Liebour government just clinging on to power come what May that keeps this HPB going. I can see huge headlines coming up from some rags that house prices are going to rise 20% by December, until after the election when reality will hit home.

What is the point of it. It's all false. Nobody is buying houses. The market doesn't exist anymore as we know it. We are all just digesting politician's and vested interest's sound bites at the moment.

Happy house hunting.

If your unsupported assertion that the Govt can and are significantly controlling house prices, what makes you think the Tories will allow a crash?

abaxas

andykn wrote: »

If your unsupported assertion that the Govt can and are significantly controlling house prices, what makes you think the Tories will allow a crash?

I dont think any incoming goverment will target house prices. As all it will do it break the economy faster. It's business that needs investment, not people's homes.

What I beleive they will do is start the long process back to real growth, and if that hits house prices a little, it is a price worth paying for our country having a future.

Currently we are living in lala land, ie all that is happening is the goverment is busy papering over the cracks in the hope that they get re-elected. The fix hasnt even started.

Also I beleive that neither party will know what to do as they situation changes my the minute. You cant plan for the unknown.

Thrugelmir

abaxas wrote: »

Also I beleive that neither party will know what to do as they situation changes my the minute. You cant plan for the unknown.

Thats because they have little control. Its the responsibility of every individual to make a contribution.

A few suggestions.

Buy British.

Buy in your local shop where possible not a chain.

Holiday in the UK.

Payoff debt.

Invest for the longer term .

These are the raw ingredients of rebuilding the economy.

There is no magic wand to make the issues disappear. Just bloody hard work ahead.

phil_b_2

The OP is nothing but an angry rant, rather than a convincing argument about anything.

People have been saying that X, Y and Z will bring about the big crash for years now. When that didnt happen in came E, F and then G, but it still hasnt happened. What after that? What if we get to december and prices have risen or are at least the same? Will you give up?

Cleaver

digipeep wrote: »

OK there are only two real bulls here, and a couple of understudies but surely all these fictitious positive noises that we have had for the last nine months register with them and that it is only the Liebour government just clinging on to power come what May that keeps this HPB going. I can see huge headlines coming up from some rags that house prices are going to rise 20% by December, until after the election when reality will hit home.

What is the point of it. It's all false. Nobody is buying houses. The market doesn't exist anymore as we know it. We are all just digesting politician's and vested interest's sound bites at the moment.

Happy house hunting.

I made this point yesterday, so I guess I will again. Stop looking at the government, financial stimulus, QE, "vested interest" and all the other financial and media aspects that we're all so obsessed with on this forum and put your head above the parapit in to the real world for a second.

Have people fundementally changed? Have the general public realised that mortgaging yourself to the hilt isn't a good idea? Do poeple in your place of work discuss the fact that property is no longer a great way to make money, or are people still of the view that long term property is still a good investment, whether as a home or to let out? Are people around you talking about the fact that there is loads of quality housing around them at falling prices so they are going to wait? Basically, has there been a cultural tipping point regarding property? I don't think so.

As previously pointed out, I'm not a bear or bull as I'm quite clueless as to the direction of travel for house prices (and because bear and bulls don't exist in the real word). But having bought a house in the middle of all the madness six years ago, then again in late 2006 then more recently towards the end of 2009 I don't see much difference. When we were searching in Oct / Nov there were people outbidding us for places, houses selling after a couple of days on the market, people increasing prices and then selling... it was madness. And why? Because, fundementally, not a lot has really changed. You can still get 10% deposits and mortgage rates are pretty much the same but, and this is the key, we ('we' being the British public) love houses. We love living in them, talking about them, buying them and, in a lot of cases, making money on them. And, in my limited view, there doesn't appear to be enough of the type of housing people want. I'm not saying this national obssession is a good thing (in fact it's quite sad) but it's a fact of life. It doesn't matter if you're a "bull" like Hamish or a "bear" like you, the fact is that you're both here because you're a touch obssessed with house prices. If "nobody was buying houses" as you assert then no one would be here fiercing debating it. (I should point out that during our latest search for a house there were plently of houses for sale at 2007 prices that we getting no views and will never sell at that price, but there were plenty of places selling. I imagine it's just the same now after a few months of rises.)

Just asserting that "It's all false. Nobody is buying houses. The market doesn't exist anymore as we know it." and cleverly putting the word 'lie' in to 'labour' makes you sound a bit immature and paranoid.

Cleaver

abaxas wrote: »

Personally I beleive that showing the stats to be lies IS the best evidence we have.

That might be your personal view, but that's not really the best course of action to take. If you take the view that all statistics are lies then you're always bringing a unhealthy level of distrust to everything you read, see or hear. This leads to the conspiracy nutter types who believe that everything is lie and it starts to dominate their lives and point of view.

Of course some governments and oranisations have reasons to skew or distort reports or statistics, so approach things with an open and questioning mind where appropriate. Be critical and challenging, but not to the point of paranoia.

Lastly, anyone with a rational mind would imediately question that if all the stats are lies and the government have a vested interest in statistics concerning the economy all being positive, then why have they just released two years of very negative data about the wider economy?

abaxas

Cleaver wrote: »

Lastly, anyone with a rational mind would imediately question that if all the stats are lies and the government have a vested interest in statistics concerning the economy all being positive, then why have they just released two years of very negative data about the wider economy?

I have a very scientific mind, I like my evidence to be scientific and backed up with fact. There is no science or validity in the GDP numbers or any of the goverment stats, the Halifax / Nationwide / LR HPI stats. etc etc.

To me they will always be lies. They are pure faith, the same as religion.

Cleaver

abaxas wrote: »

I have a very scientific mind, I like my evidence to be scientific and backed up with fact. There is no science or validity in the GDP numbers or any of the goverment stats, the Halifax / Nationwide / LR HPI stats. etc etc.

To me they will always be lies. They are pure faith, the same as religion.

Right, okay. So just as a quick question. Most of the financial commentators were predicting quarterly growth of 0.4% a week or so ago. Most news agencies picked up on this in the few days before the official announcment and reported that it was "likely" to be 0.4%. If there is someone making up the stats then why on earth did they decide on 0.1% rather than the far more positive 0.4%? Seems a strange decision to make.

Using Nationwide as another example (you say this is also 'lies'), here is the methodology they use:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/method_qs.htm

Just for my interest really, how do they 'lie'? I'm not asking for a vague, "well, they just do" answer, more the process as to who lies, how they lie, who is involved, who orders the lies etc.?